Thu, Dec 26 2024
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Chase Field
Phoenix, AZ
·
Turf
·
48,519 cap
Rutgers✈ 2,115 mi-3 hr TZ
Kansas State✈ 947 mi-2 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Kansas State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Kansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -7.5
O/U 51.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Rutgers 2024 Schedule
Rutgers's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Rutgers vs Howard | -38.5W44–7 | 51.5 | W44–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Rutgers vs Akron | -24.5W49–17 | 41.5 | W49–17 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Rutgers at Virginia Tech | +3.0W26–23 | 45.0 | W26–23 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/27 | Rutgers vs Washington | -1.5W21–18 | 44.5 | W21–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Rutgers at Nebraska | +7.0L7–14 | 39.5 | L7–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Rutgers vs Wisconsin | -1.0L7–42 | 43.5 | L7–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Rutgers vs UCLA | -4.0L32–35 | 42.5 | L32–35 | O | N |
| Fri 10/25 | Rutgers at USC | +14.0L20–42 | 57.0 | L20–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Rutgers vs Minnesota | +6.5W26–19 | 44.5 | W26–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Rutgers at Maryland | +4.5W31–17 | 54.5 | W31–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Rutgers vs Illinois | -2.0L31–38 | 48.0 | L31–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Rutgers at Michigan State | +1.5W41–14 | 46.5 | W41–14 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/26 | Rutgers vs Kansas State | +7.5L41–44 | 51.5 | L41–44 | O | Y |
Kansas State 2024 Schedule
Kansas State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Kansas State vs UT Martin | -36.5W41–6 | 56.5 | W41–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Kansas State at Tulane | -8.5W34–27 | 47.5 | W34–27 | O | N |
| Fri 9/13 | Kansas State vs Arizona | -7.0W31–7 | 58.0 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Kansas State at BYU | -7.5L9–38 | 49.5 | L9–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Kansas State vs Oklahoma State | -6.0W42–20 | 58.0 | W42–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Kansas State at Colorado | -3.5W31–28 | 54.5 | W31–28 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Kansas State at West Virginia | -2.5W45–18 | 56.5 | W45–18 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Kansas State vs Kansas | -10.0W29–27 | 56.5 | W29–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Kansas State at Houston | -12.5L19–24 | 46.5 | L19–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Kansas State vs Arizona State | -7.5L14–24 | 51.5 | L14–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Kansas State vs Cincinnati | -7.5W41–15 | 54.5 | W41–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Kansas State at Iowa State | +2.5L21–29 | 51.5 | L21–29 | U | N |
| Thu 12/26 | Kansas State vs Rutgers | -7.5W44–41 | 51.5 | W44–41 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Kansas State Edge
Kansas State +0.27
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Kansas State Edge
Kansas State +5.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Rutgers
18.4 — 59.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Kansas State won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Kansas State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Rutgers
Greg Schiano #1
19–28 (40%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Kirk Ciarrocca
Yr 2
#1
DC
Joe Harasymiak
Yr 3
#1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
39–24 (62%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Conor Riley
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Klanderman
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

