Kansas State at Colorado Week 7 College Football Matchup Kansas State at Colorado Matchup - Week 7
Sun, Oct 13 2024 · Week 7 · 🏟 Folsom Field Boulder, CO · Turf · 50,183 cap
Kansas State✈ 464 mi-1 hr TZ
31 28
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas State
27
COLO +3.5
Colorado
28
P&R Line Colorado -0.5
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Kansas State -3.5 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
Kansas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -3.5
O/U 54.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Kansas State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Colorado Coming off BYE 🛋 Kansas State Coming off BYE
Kansas State 2024 Schedule
Kansas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Kansas State vs UT Martin-36.5W41–656.5W41–6UN
Sat 9/7Kansas State at Tulane-8.5W34–2747.5W34–27ON
Fri 9/13Kansas State vs Arizona-7.0W31–758.0W31–7UY
Sat 9/21Kansas State at BYU-7.5L9–3849.5L9–38UN
Sat 9/28Kansas State vs Oklahoma State-6.0W42–2058.0W42–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Kansas State at Colorado-3.5W31–2854.5W31–28ON
Sat 10/19Kansas State at West Virginia-2.5W45–1856.5W45–18OY
Sat 10/26Kansas State vs Kansas-10.0W29–2756.5W29–27UN
Sat 11/2Kansas State at Houston-12.5L19–2446.5L19–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Kansas State vs Arizona State-7.5L14–2451.5L14–24UN
Sat 11/23Kansas State vs Cincinnati-7.5W41–1554.5W41–15OY
Sat 11/30Kansas State at Iowa State+2.5L21–2951.5L21–29UN
Thu 12/26Kansas State vs Rutgers-7.5W44–4151.5W44–41ON
Colorado 2024 Schedule
Colorado's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Colorado vs North Dakota State-9.0W31–2659.0W31–26UN
Sat 9/7Colorado at Nebraska+6.5L10–2855.0L10–28UN
Sat 9/14Colorado at Colorado State-7.5W28–958.5W28–9UY
Sat 9/21Colorado vs Baylor-2.5W38–3152.5W38–31OY
Sat 9/28Colorado at UCF+12.5W48–2160.5W48–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Colorado vs Kansas State+3.5L28–3154.5L28–31OY
Sat 10/19Colorado at Arizona+2.5W34–757.5W34–7UY
Sat 10/26Colorado vs Cincinnati-6.0W34–2357.0W34–23UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Colorado at Texas Tech-5.0W41–2762.0W41–27OY
Sat 11/16Colorado vs Utah-13.5W49–2443.5W49–24OY
Sat 11/23Colorado vs Kansas-2.5L21–3759.0L21–37UN
Fri 11/29Colorado vs Oklahoma State-14.5W52–066.5W52–0UY
Sat 12/28Colorado vs BYU-3.0L14–3655.5L14–36UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas State #17
+0.393
Colorado #35
+0.353
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #36
+0.460
Colorado #32
+0.578
Colorado Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas State #50
0.172
Colorado #13
0.198
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Colorado Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State #53
+7.373
Colorado #28
+7.878
Colorado Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas State #55
+0.824
Colorado #48
+0.804
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas State #104
72.4
Colorado #19
68.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Colorado Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas State
6.2
Colorado
0.1
Offense Rating
Kansas State
18.2
Colorado
15.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas State
12.0
Colorado
15.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas State #21
1.50
Colorado #36
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #27
0.75
Colorado #50
0.00
Kansas State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas State #1
54.1
Colorado #1
42.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #49
28.1
Colorado #73
40.6
Kansas State +11.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas State
14.6 — 58.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kansas State won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
39–24 (62%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Conor Riley Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Colorado
Deion Sanders #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Pat Shurmur Yr 1 #1
DC Robert Livingston Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself