Iowa State at Houston Week 5 College Football Matchup Iowa State at Houston Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 28 2024 · Week 5 · 🏟 John O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium Houston, TX · Turf · 40,000 cap
Iowa State✈ 854 miSame TZ
20 0
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Iowa State
30
Houston
14
P&R Line Iowa State -16
P&R Total O/U 44
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Iowa State -16 · O/U 43.0
Matchup Prediction
Iowa State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Iowa State entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Iowa State wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Iowa State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -16
O/U 43.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Iowa State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Iowa State 2024 Schedule
Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Iowa State vs North Dakota-30.5W21–351.5W21–3UN
Sat 9/7Iowa State at Iowa+3.0W20–1935.0W20–19OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Iowa State vs Arkansas State-20.5W52–752.0W52–7OY
Sat 9/28Iowa State at Houston-16.0W20–043.0W20–0UY
Sat 10/5Iowa State vs Baylor-13.0W43–2145.0W43–21OY
Sat 10/12Iowa State at West Virginia-3.0W28–1654.0W28–16UY
Sat 10/19Iowa State vs UCF-13.0W38–3549.5W38–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Iowa State vs Texas Tech-13.5L22–2355.0L22–23UN
Sat 11/9Iowa State vs Kansas-2.5L36–4550.5L36–45ON
Sat 11/16Iowa State vs Cincinnati-7.0W34–1752.5W34–17UY
Sat 11/23Iowa State at Utah-6.5W31–2842.5W31–28ON
Sat 11/30Iowa State vs Kansas State-2.5W29–2151.5W29–21UY
Sat 12/7Iowa State vs Arizona State-1.5L19–4551.5L19–45ON
Sat 12/28Iowa State vs Miami+5.0W42–4162.0W42–41OY
Houston 2024 Schedule
Houston's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Houston vs UNLV-3.0L7–2756.0L7–27UN
Sat 9/7Houston at Oklahoma+27.5L12–1648.5L12–16UY
Sat 9/14Houston vs Rice-3.5W33–743.5W33–7UY
Sat 9/21Houston at Cincinnati+4.0L0–3447.5L0–34UN
Sat 9/28Houston vs Iowa State+16.0L0–2043.0L0–20UN
Fri 10/4Houston at TCU+16.5W30–1952.0W30–19UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Houston vs Kansas+4.5L14–4245.5L14–42ON
Sat 10/26Houston vs Utah+4.5W17–1436.0W17–14UY
Sat 11/2Houston vs Kansas State+12.5W24–1946.5W24–19UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/15Houston at Arizona+1.0L3–2746.5L3–27UN
Sat 11/23Houston vs Baylor+7.0L10–2051.0L10–20UN
Sat 11/30Houston at BYU+9.5L18–3039.5L18–30ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Iowa State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Iowa State #62
+0.335
Houston #133
+0.180
Iowa State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #49
+0.519
Houston #131
+0.188
Iowa State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Iowa State #84
0.149
Houston #46
0.175
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Houston Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #37
+7.746
Houston #134
+6.014
Iowa State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Iowa State #99
+0.800
Houston #129
+0.779
Iowa State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Iowa State #52
70.0
Houston #101
72.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Houston Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Iowa State
3.1
Houston
8.3
Offense Rating
Iowa State
15.7
Houston
19.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Iowa State
12.6
Houston
11.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Iowa State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Iowa State #10
1.50
Houston #122
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #6
0.00
Houston #36
0.75
Iowa State +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Iowa State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Iowa State #1
55.7
Houston #1
27.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #80
28.2
Houston #125
61.3
Iowa State +28.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Iowa State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
53–48 (53%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Taylor Mouser Yr 1 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Houston
Willie Fritz #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Kevin Barbay Yr 1 #1
DC Shiel Wood Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself