Baylor at Iowa State Week 6 College Football Matchup Baylor at Iowa State Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 5 2024 · Week 6 · 🏟 Jack Trice Stadium Ames, IA · Turf · 61,500 cap
Baylor✈ 747 miSame TZ
Away
21 43
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Baylor
24
BAY +13
Iowa State
28
P&R Line Iowa State -3.5
P&R Total O/U 51.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Iowa State -13 · O/U 45.0
Matchup Prediction
Iowa State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Iowa State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Iowa State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Iowa State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -13
O/U 45.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Baylor · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Baylor 2024 Schedule
Baylor's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Baylor vs Tarleton State-33.5W45–353.5W45–3UY
Sat 9/7Baylor at Utah+14.5L12–2352.5L12–23UY
Sat 9/14Baylor vs Air Force-17.5W31–340.5W31–3UY
Sat 9/21Baylor at Colorado+2.5L31–3852.5L31–38ON
Sat 9/28Baylor vs BYU-3.0L28–3447.0L28–34ON
Sat 10/5Baylor at Iowa State+13.0L21–4345.0L21–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Baylor at Texas Tech+4.5W59–3556.0W59–35OY
Sat 10/26Baylor vs Oklahoma State-7.0W38–2864.5W38–28OY
Sat 11/2Baylor vs TCU-2.5W37–3464.0W37–34OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Baylor at West Virginia-2.0W49–3560.0W49–35OY
Sat 11/23Baylor at Houston-7.0W20–1051.0W20–10UY
Sat 11/30Baylor vs Kansas+2.5W45–1762.5W45–17UY
Tue 12/31Baylor vs LSU-3.0L31–4462.5L31–44ON
Iowa State 2024 Schedule
Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Iowa State vs North Dakota-30.5W21–351.5W21–3UN
Sat 9/7Iowa State at Iowa+3.0W20–1935.0W20–19OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Iowa State vs Arkansas State-20.5W52–752.0W52–7OY
Sat 9/28Iowa State at Houston-16.0W20–043.0W20–0UY
Sat 10/5Iowa State vs Baylor-13.0W43–2145.0W43–21OY
Sat 10/12Iowa State at West Virginia-3.0W28–1654.0W28–16UY
Sat 10/19Iowa State vs UCF-13.0W38–3549.5W38–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Iowa State vs Texas Tech-13.5L22–2355.0L22–23UN
Sat 11/9Iowa State vs Kansas-2.5L36–4550.5L36–45ON
Sat 11/16Iowa State vs Cincinnati-7.0W34–1752.5W34–17UY
Sat 11/23Iowa State at Utah-6.5W31–2842.5W31–28ON
Sat 11/30Iowa State vs Kansas State-2.5W29–2151.5W29–21UY
Sat 12/7Iowa State vs Arizona State-1.5L19–4551.5L19–45ON
Sat 12/28Iowa State vs Miami+5.0W42–4162.0W42–41OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Baylor PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Baylor
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Baylor #29
+0.433
Iowa State #62
+0.374
Baylor Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Baylor #21
+0.539
Iowa State #49
+0.546
Iowa State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Baylor #83
0.151
Iowa State #84
0.149
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Baylor Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Baylor #30
+7.719
Iowa State #37
+8.084
Iowa State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Baylor #23
+0.894
Iowa State #99
+0.798
Baylor Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Baylor #17
68.5
Iowa State #52
70.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Baylor Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Baylor Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Baylor
3.5
Iowa State
3.1
Offense Rating
Baylor
16.6
Iowa State
15.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Baylor
13.1
Iowa State
12.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Iowa State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Baylor #45
1.00
Iowa State #10
1.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Baylor #61
1.00
Iowa State #6
0.00
Iowa State +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Iowa State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Baylor #1
45.3
Iowa State #1
58.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Baylor #48
43.3
Iowa State #80
24.2
Iowa State +13.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Iowa State
4 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Baylor
36.7 — 40.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Iowa State won by 22
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Iowa State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Baylor
Dave Aranda #1
23–25 (48%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Jake Spavital Yr 1 #1
DC Matt Powledge Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
53–48 (53%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Taylor Mouser Yr 1 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself