Iowa State at Miami Week 1 College Football Matchup Iowa State at Miami Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Dec 28 2024 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Camping World Stadium Orlando, FL · Turf · 65,000 cap
Iowa State✈ 1,156 mi+1 hr TZ Miami✈ 192 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
42 41
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Iowa State
27
Miami
36
P&R Line Miami -9
P&R Total O/U 62
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Miami -5 · O/U 62.0
Matchup Prediction
Miami has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Miami entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Miami wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Miami wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Miami -5
O/U 62.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Miami · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Iowa State 2nd straight Road Game
Iowa State 2024 Schedule
Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Iowa State vs North Dakota-30.5W21–351.5W21–3UN
Sat 9/7Iowa State at Iowa+3.0W20–1935.0W20–19OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Iowa State vs Arkansas State-20.5W52–752.0W52–7OY
Sat 9/28Iowa State at Houston-16.0W20–043.0W20–0UY
Sat 10/5Iowa State vs Baylor-13.0W43–2145.0W43–21OY
Sat 10/12Iowa State at West Virginia-3.0W28–1654.0W28–16UY
Sat 10/19Iowa State vs UCF-13.0W38–3549.5W38–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Iowa State vs Texas Tech-13.5L22–2355.0L22–23UN
Sat 11/9Iowa State vs Kansas-2.5L36–4550.5L36–45ON
Sat 11/16Iowa State vs Cincinnati-7.0W34–1752.5W34–17UY
Sat 11/23Iowa State at Utah-6.5W31–2842.5W31–28ON
Sat 11/30Iowa State vs Kansas State-2.5W29–2151.5W29–21UY
Sat 12/7Iowa State vs Arizona State-1.5L19–4551.5L19–45ON
Sat 12/28Iowa State vs Miami+5.0W42–4162.0W42–41OY
Miami 2024 Schedule
Miami's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Miami at Florida-2.5W41–1754.5W41–17OY
Sat 9/7Miami vs Florida A&M-46.5W56–955.5W56–9OY
Sat 9/14Miami vs Ball State-36.5W62–055.5W62–0OY
Sat 9/21Miami at South Florida-17.0W50–1564.5W50–15OY
Fri 9/27Miami vs Virginia Tech-17.5W38–3455.5W38–34ON
Sat 10/5Miami at California-10.0W39–3854.0W39–38ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Miami at Louisville-4.5W52–4561.5W52–45OY
Sat 10/26Miami vs Florida State-22.5W36–1455.0W36–14UN
Sat 11/2Miami vs Duke-21.0W53–3155.5W53–31OY
Sat 11/9Miami at Georgia Tech-9.5L23–2864.5L23–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Miami vs Wake Forest-23.5W42–1467.0W42–14UY
Sat 11/30Miami at Syracuse-12.5L38–4265.5L38–42ON
Sat 12/28Miami vs Iowa State-5.0L41–4262.0L41–42ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Miami PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Miami
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Iowa State #62
+0.362
Miami #2
+0.585
Miami Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #49
+0.518
Miami #6
+0.632
Miami Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Iowa State #84
0.149
Miami #39
0.180
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #37
+8.246
Miami #2
+8.399
Miami Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Iowa State #99
+0.785
Miami #1
+0.951
Miami Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Iowa State #52
70.0
Miami #55
70.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Iowa State
4.1
Miami
24.1
Offense Rating
Iowa State
16.7
Miami
27.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Iowa State
12.6
Miami
2.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Iowa State #10
1.75
Miami #2
2.55
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #6
0.42
Miami #35
0.82
Miami +0.80
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Iowa State #1
39.6
Miami #1
58.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #80
41.3
Miami #16
25.2
Miami +18.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Miami with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
53–48 (53%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Taylor Mouser Yr 1 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Miami
Mario Cristobal #1
12–13 (48%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Shannon Dawson Yr 2 #1
DC Lance Guidry Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself