Iowa State at Utah Week 13 College Football Matchup Iowa State at Utah Matchup - Week 13
Sun, Nov 24 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Rice-Eccles Stadium Salt Lake City, UT · Turf · 45,807 cap
Iowa State✈ 946 mi-1 hr TZ
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Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Iowa State
23
UTAH +6.5
Utah
20
P&R Line Iowa State -3
P&R Total O/U 43.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Iowa State -6.5 · O/U 42.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Iowa State, while Game Control favors Utah. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Iowa State wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Utah wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -6.5
O/U 42.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Utah · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Iowa State 2024 Schedule
Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Iowa State vs North Dakota-30.5W21–351.5W21–3UN
Sat 9/7Iowa State at Iowa+3.0W20–1935.0W20–19OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Iowa State vs Arkansas State-20.5W52–752.0W52–7OY
Sat 9/28Iowa State at Houston-16.0W20–043.0W20–0UY
Sat 10/5Iowa State vs Baylor-13.0W43–2145.0W43–21OY
Sat 10/12Iowa State at West Virginia-3.0W28–1654.0W28–16UY
Sat 10/19Iowa State vs UCF-13.0W38–3549.5W38–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Iowa State vs Texas Tech-13.5L22–2355.0L22–23UN
Sat 11/9Iowa State vs Kansas-2.5L36–4550.5L36–45ON
Sat 11/16Iowa State vs Cincinnati-7.0W34–1752.5W34–17UY
Sat 11/23Iowa State at Utah-6.5W31–2842.5W31–28ON
Sat 11/30Iowa State vs Kansas State-2.5W29–2151.5W29–21UY
Sat 12/7Iowa State vs Arizona State-1.5L19–4551.5L19–45ON
Sat 12/28Iowa State vs Miami+5.0W42–4162.0W42–41OY
Utah 2024 Schedule
Utah's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Utah vs Southern Utah-37.5W49–055.5W49–0UY
Sat 9/7Utah vs Baylor-14.5W23–1252.5W23–12UN
Sat 9/14Utah at Utah State-20.5W38–2143.5W38–21ON
Sat 9/21Utah at Oklahoma State-1.0W22–1953.5W22–19UY
Sat 9/28Utah vs Arizona-7.5L10–2347.0L10–23UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/11Utah at Arizona State-6.0L19–2746.5L19–27UN
Sat 10/19Utah vs TCU-3.0L7–1352.0L7–13UN
Sat 10/26Utah at Houston-4.5L14–1736.0L14–17UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Utah vs BYU+3.5L21–2240.5L21–22OY
Sat 11/16Utah at Colorado+13.5L24–4943.5L24–49ON
Sat 11/23Utah vs Iowa State+6.5L28–3142.5L28–31OY
Fri 11/29Utah at UCF+9.5W28–1445.5W28–14UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Utah PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Utah
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Iowa State #62
+0.243
Utah #120
+0.261
Utah Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #49
+0.382
Utah #106
+0.322
Iowa State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Iowa State #84
0.149
Utah #12
0.199
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Utah Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #37
+7.358
Utah #111
+6.843
Iowa State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Iowa State #99
+0.758
Utah #125
+0.793
Utah Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Iowa State #52
70.0
Utah #32
69.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Utah Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Utah Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Iowa State
3.1
Utah
7.3
Offense Rating
Iowa State
15.7
Utah
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Iowa State
12.6
Utah
10.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Iowa State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Iowa State #10
1.89
Utah #78
0.78
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #6
0.33
Utah #47
0.89
Iowa State +1.11
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Utah Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Iowa State #1
39.9
Utah #1
45.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #80
41.7
Utah #58
35.0
Utah +5.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
53–48 (53%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Taylor Mouser Yr 1 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Utah
Kyle Whittingham #1
162–79 (67%) · Yr 20 at school
OC Andy Ludwig Yr 3 #1
DC Morgan Scalley Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself