Cincinnati at Iowa State Week 12 College Football Matchup Cincinnati at Iowa State Matchup - Week 12
Sun, Nov 17 2024 · Week 12 · 🏟 Jack Trice Stadium Ames, IA · Turf · 61,500 cap
Cincinnati✈ 518 mi-1 hr TZ
17 34
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Cincinnati
20
ISU -7
Iowa State
33
P&R Line Iowa State -13
P&R Total O/U 52.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Iowa State -7 · O/U 52.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Iowa State, while Game Control favors Cincinnati. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Iowa State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Cincinnati wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -7
O/U 52.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Cincinnati · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Cincinnati 2024 Schedule
Cincinnati's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Cincinnati vs Towson-33.5W38–2056.5W38–20ON
Sat 9/7Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh+2.5L27–2862.5L27–28UY
Sat 9/14Cincinnati at Miami (OH)-3.5W27–1647.5W27–16UY
Sat 9/21Cincinnati vs Houston-4.0W34–047.5W34–0UY
Sat 9/28Cincinnati at Texas Tech+3.0L41–4460.0L41–44OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Cincinnati at UCF+2.0W19–1358.0W19–13UY
Sat 10/19Cincinnati vs Arizona State-5.5W24–1451.0W24–14UY
Sat 10/26Cincinnati at Colorado+6.0L23–3457.0L23–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Cincinnati vs West Virginia-5.5L24–3154.5L24–31ON
Sat 11/16Cincinnati at Iowa State+7.0L17–3452.5L17–34UN
Sat 11/23Cincinnati at Kansas State+7.5L15–4154.5L15–41ON
Sat 11/30Cincinnati vs TCU+2.5L13–2058.5L13–20UN
Iowa State 2024 Schedule
Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Iowa State vs North Dakota-30.5W21–351.5W21–3UN
Sat 9/7Iowa State at Iowa+3.0W20–1935.0W20–19OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Iowa State vs Arkansas State-20.5W52–752.0W52–7OY
Sat 9/28Iowa State at Houston-16.0W20–043.0W20–0UY
Sat 10/5Iowa State vs Baylor-13.0W43–2145.0W43–21OY
Sat 10/12Iowa State at West Virginia-3.0W28–1654.0W28–16UY
Sat 10/19Iowa State vs UCF-13.0W38–3549.5W38–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Iowa State vs Texas Tech-13.5L22–2355.0L22–23UN
Sat 11/9Iowa State vs Kansas-2.5L36–4550.5L36–45ON
Sat 11/16Iowa State vs Cincinnati-7.0W34–1752.5W34–17UY
Sat 11/23Iowa State at Utah-6.5W31–2842.5W31–28ON
Sat 11/30Iowa State vs Kansas State-2.5W29–2151.5W29–21UY
Sat 12/7Iowa State vs Arizona State-1.5L19–4551.5L19–45ON
Sat 12/28Iowa State vs Miami+5.0W42–4162.0W42–41OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Cincinnati PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Cincinnati
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Cincinnati #59
+0.389
Iowa State #62
+0.376
Cincinnati Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Cincinnati #63
+0.432
Iowa State #49
+0.524
Iowa State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Cincinnati #67
0.162
Iowa State #84
0.149
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Cincinnati Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Cincinnati #118
+6.768
Iowa State #37
+7.738
Iowa State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Cincinnati #43
+0.873
Iowa State #99
+0.826
Cincinnati Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Cincinnati #124
73.6
Iowa State #52
70.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Iowa State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Cincinnati
-1.3
Iowa State
3.1
Offense Rating
Cincinnati
13.7
Iowa State
15.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Cincinnati
15.0
Iowa State
12.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Iowa State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Cincinnati #38
1.63
Iowa State #10
1.75
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Cincinnati #73
0.50
Iowa State #6
0.38
Iowa State +0.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Cincinnati Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Cincinnati #1
59.1
Iowa State #1
40.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Cincinnati #66
25.5
Iowa State #80
41.2
Cincinnati +18.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Iowa State
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Cincinnati
33.1 — 45.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Iowa State won by 17
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Cincinnati
Scott Satterfield #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Brad Glenn Yr 2 #1
DC Nate Fuqua Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
53–48 (53%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Taylor Mouser Yr 1 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself