Sat, Aug 31 2024
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Week 1
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🏟 Jack Trice Stadium
Ames, IA
·
Turf
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61,500 cap
North Dakota✈ 440 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Iowa State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -30.5
O/U 51.5
ESPN Bet
North Dakota 2024 Schedule
North Dakota's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | North Dakota at Iowa State | +30.5L3–21 | 51.5 | L3–21 | U | Y |
Iowa State 2024 Schedule
Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Iowa State vs North Dakota | -30.5W21–3 | 51.5 | W21–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Iowa State at Iowa | +3.0W20–19 | 35.0 | W20–19 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Iowa State vs Arkansas State | -20.5W52–7 | 52.0 | W52–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Iowa State at Houston | -16.0W20–0 | 43.0 | W20–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Iowa State vs Baylor | -13.0W43–21 | 45.0 | W43–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Iowa State at West Virginia | -3.0W28–16 | 54.0 | W28–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Iowa State vs UCF | -13.0W38–35 | 49.5 | W38–35 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Iowa State vs Texas Tech | -13.5L22–23 | 55.0 | L22–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Iowa State vs Kansas | -2.5L36–45 | 50.5 | L36–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Iowa State vs Cincinnati | -7.0W34–17 | 52.5 | W34–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Iowa State at Utah | -6.5W31–28 | 42.5 | W31–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Iowa State vs Kansas State | -2.5W29–21 | 51.5 | W29–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Iowa State vs Arizona State | -1.5L19–45 | 51.5 | L19–45 | O | N |
| Sat 12/28 | Iowa State vs Miami | +5.0W42–41 | 62.0 | W42–41 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Dakota Edge
North Dakota +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Iowa State Edge
Iowa State +38.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓