Arkansas State at Iowa State Week 4 College Football Matchup Arkansas State at Iowa State Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 21 2024 · Week 4 · 🏟 Jack Trice Stadium Ames, IA · Turf · 61,500 cap
Arkansas State✈ 454 miSame TZ
7 52
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Arkansas State
16
Iowa State
38
P&R Line Iowa State -22.5
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Iowa State -20.5 · O/U 52.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Arkansas State, while Game Control favors Iowa State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Arkansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Iowa State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -20.5
O/U 52.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Iowa State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Iowa State Coming off BYE 🚌 Arkansas State 2nd straight Road Game
Arkansas State 2024 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas-18.5
Sat 9/7Arkansas State vs Tulsa-9.5W28–2465.5W28–24UN
Sat 9/14Arkansas State at Michigan+22.0L18–2847.5L18–28UY
Sat 9/21Arkansas State at Iowa State+20.5L7–5252.0L7–52ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Arkansas State vs South Alabama+2.5W18–1662.5W18–16UY
Sat 10/12Arkansas State at Texas State+13.5L9–4166.0L9–41UN
Sat 10/19Arkansas State at Southern Miss-7.0W44–2857.0W44–28OY
Sat 10/26Arkansas State vs Troy-8.5W34–3150.0W34–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Arkansas State at Louisiana+14.0L19–5560.0L19–55ON
Sat 11/16Arkansas State at Georgia State+2.5W27–2060.0W27–20UY
Sat 11/23Arkansas State vs UL Monroe-3.0W28–2151.5W28–21UY
Sat 11/30Arkansas State vs Old Dominion+5.5L32–4058.5L32–40ON
Thu 12/26Arkansas State vs Bowling Green+10.5W38–3154.5W38–31OY
Iowa State 2024 Schedule
Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Iowa State vs North Dakota-30.5W21–351.5W21–3UN
Sat 9/7Iowa State at Iowa+3.0W20–1935.0W20–19OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Iowa State vs Arkansas State-20.5W52–752.0W52–7OY
Sat 9/28Iowa State at Houston-16.0W20–043.0W20–0UY
Sat 10/5Iowa State vs Baylor-13.0W43–2145.0W43–21OY
Sat 10/12Iowa State at West Virginia-3.0W28–1654.0W28–16UY
Sat 10/19Iowa State vs UCF-13.0W38–3549.5W38–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Iowa State vs Texas Tech-13.5L22–2355.0L22–23UN
Sat 11/9Iowa State vs Kansas-2.5L36–4550.5L36–45ON
Sat 11/16Iowa State vs Cincinnati-7.0W34–1752.5W34–17UY
Sat 11/23Iowa State at Utah-6.5W31–2842.5W31–28ON
Sat 11/30Iowa State vs Kansas State-2.5W29–2151.5W29–21UY
Sat 12/7Iowa State vs Arizona State-1.5L19–4551.5L19–45ON
Sat 12/28Iowa State vs Miami+5.0W42–4162.0W42–41OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Iowa State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Arkansas State #81
+0.351
Iowa State #62
+0.504
Iowa State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Arkansas State #90
+0.378
Iowa State #49
+0.641
Iowa State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Arkansas State #80
0.152
Iowa State #84
0.149
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Arkansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Arkansas State #63
+7.401
Iowa State #37
+8.853
Iowa State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Arkansas State #91
+0.836
Iowa State #99
+0.884
Iowa State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Arkansas State #104
72.4
Iowa State #52
70.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Iowa State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Arkansas State
-18.1
Iowa State
4.1
Offense Rating
Arkansas State
6.3
Iowa State
16.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Arkansas State
24.3
Iowa State
12.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Arkansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Arkansas State #113
0.50
Iowa State #10
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Arkansas State #115
0.50
Iowa State #6
0.00
Arkansas State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Iowa State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Arkansas State #1
29.1
Iowa State #1
45.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Arkansas State #94
51.6
Iowa State #80
37.9
Iowa State +16.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Iowa State
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Iowa State
76.1 — 8.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Iowa State won by 45
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
11–26 (30%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Keith Heckendorf Yr 3 #1
DC Rob Harley Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
53–48 (53%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Taylor Mouser Yr 1 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself