UCF at Iowa State Week 8 College Football Matchup UCF at Iowa State Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 19 2024 · Week 8 · 🏟 Jack Trice Stadium Ames, IA · Turf · 61,500 cap
UCF✈ 1,159 mi-1 hr TZ
Away
35 38
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
UCF
20
UCF +13
Iowa State
32
P&R Line Iowa State -12
P&R Total O/U 52.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Iowa State -13 · O/U 49.5
Matchup Prediction
Iowa State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Iowa State entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Iowa State wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Iowa State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -13
O/U 49.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → UCF · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
UCF 2024 Schedule
UCF's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29UCF vs New Hampshire-38.5W57–358.5W57–3OY
Sat 9/7UCF vs Sam Houston-21.5W45–1453.5W45–14OY
Sat 9/14UCF at TCU+1.5W35–3461.5W35–34OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28UCF vs Colorado-12.5L21–4860.5L21–48ON
Sat 10/5UCF at Florida-1.0L13–2462.0L13–24UN
Sat 10/12UCF vs Cincinnati-2.0L13–1958.0L13–19UN
Sat 10/19UCF at Iowa State+13.0L35–3849.5L35–38OY
Sat 10/26UCF vs BYU-2.5L24–3753.5L24–37ON
Sat 11/2UCF vs Arizona-6.5W56–1255.0W56–12OY
Sat 11/9UCF at Arizona State+2.5L31–3555.5L31–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23UCF at West Virginia-3.0L21–3160.0L21–31UN
Fri 11/29UCF vs Utah-9.5L14–2845.5L14–28UN
Iowa State 2024 Schedule
Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Iowa State vs North Dakota-30.5W21–351.5W21–3UN
Sat 9/7Iowa State at Iowa+3.0W20–1935.0W20–19OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Iowa State vs Arkansas State-20.5W52–752.0W52–7OY
Sat 9/28Iowa State at Houston-16.0W20–043.0W20–0UY
Sat 10/5Iowa State vs Baylor-13.0W43–2145.0W43–21OY
Sat 10/12Iowa State at West Virginia-3.0W28–1654.0W28–16UY
Sat 10/19Iowa State vs UCF-13.0W38–3549.5W38–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Iowa State vs Texas Tech-13.5L22–2355.0L22–23UN
Sat 11/9Iowa State vs Kansas-2.5L36–4550.5L36–45ON
Sat 11/16Iowa State vs Cincinnati-7.0W34–1752.5W34–17UY
Sat 11/23Iowa State at Utah-6.5W31–2842.5W31–28ON
Sat 11/30Iowa State vs Kansas State-2.5W29–2151.5W29–21UY
Sat 12/7Iowa State vs Arizona State-1.5L19–4551.5L19–45ON
Sat 12/28Iowa State vs Miami+5.0W42–4162.0W42–41OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
UCF PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UCF
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
UCF #58
+0.393
Iowa State #62
+0.358
UCF Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
UCF #123
+0.263
Iowa State #49
+0.548
Iowa State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
UCF #64
0.163
Iowa State #84
0.149
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UCF Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
UCF #86
+7.190
Iowa State #37
+8.597
Iowa State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
UCF #28
+0.887
Iowa State #99
+0.804
UCF Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
UCF #35
69.4
Iowa State #52
70.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UCF Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UCF Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
UCF
4.2
Iowa State
3.1
Offense Rating
UCF
17.6
Iowa State
15.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
UCF
13.4
Iowa State
12.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Iowa State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
UCF #62
0.80
Iowa State #10
2.20
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
UCF #75
1.20
Iowa State #6
0.00
Iowa State +1.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Iowa State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
UCF #1
35.3
Iowa State #1
54.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
UCF #113
54.0
Iowa State #80
26.3
Iowa State +19.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Iowa State
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
UCF
12.1 — 70.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Iowa State won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Iowa State with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
UCF
Gus Malzahn #1
24–16 (60%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Tim Harris Jr. Yr 1 #1
DC Ted Roof Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
53–48 (53%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Taylor Mouser Yr 1 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself