Iowa State at Kansas Week 11 College Football Matchup Iowa State at Kansas Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 9 2024 · Week 11 · Neutral Site · 🏟 Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City, MO · Turf · 76,416 cap
Iowa State✈ 209 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
36 45
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Iowa State
25
ISU -2.5
Kansas
19
P&R Line Iowa State -5.5
P&R Total O/U 44
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Iowa State -2.5 · O/U 50.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Iowa State, while Game Control favors Kansas. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Iowa State wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Kansas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Iowa State -2.5
O/U 50.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Kansas Coming off BYE
Iowa State 2024 Schedule
Iowa State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Iowa State vs North Dakota-30.5W21–351.5W21–3UN
Sat 9/7Iowa State at Iowa+3.0W20–1935.0W20–19OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Iowa State vs Arkansas State-20.5W52–752.0W52–7OY
Sat 9/28Iowa State at Houston-16.0W20–043.0W20–0UY
Sat 10/5Iowa State vs Baylor-13.0W43–2145.0W43–21OY
Sat 10/12Iowa State at West Virginia-3.0W28–1654.0W28–16UY
Sat 10/19Iowa State vs UCF-13.0W38–3549.5W38–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Iowa State vs Texas Tech-13.5L22–2355.0L22–23UN
Sat 11/9Iowa State vs Kansas-2.5L36–4550.5L36–45ON
Sat 11/16Iowa State vs Cincinnati-7.0W34–1752.5W34–17UY
Sat 11/23Iowa State at Utah-6.5W31–2842.5W31–28ON
Sat 11/30Iowa State vs Kansas State-2.5W29–2151.5W29–21UY
Sat 12/7Iowa State vs Arizona State-1.5L19–4551.5L19–45ON
Sat 12/28Iowa State vs Miami+5.0W42–4162.0W42–41OY
Kansas 2024 Schedule
Kansas's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Kansas vs Lindenwood-48.5W48–362.5W48–3UN
Sat 9/7Kansas at Illinois-4.5L17–2358.5L17–23UN
Fri 9/13Kansas vs UNLV-7.0L20–2357.0L20–23UN
Sat 9/21Kansas at West Virginia+1.5L28–3256.0L28–32ON
Sat 9/28Kansas vs TCU-1.5L27–3858.5L27–38ON
Sat 10/5Kansas at Arizona State+2.5L31–3550.0L31–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Kansas vs Houston-4.5W42–1445.5W42–14OY
Sat 10/26Kansas at Kansas State+10.0L27–2956.5L27–29UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Kansas vs Iowa State+2.5W45–3650.5W45–36OY
Sat 11/16Kansas at BYU+3.0W17–1355.5W17–13UY
Sat 11/23Kansas vs Colorado+2.5W37–2159.0W37–21UY
Sat 11/30Kansas at Baylor-2.5L17–4562.5L17–45UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Kansas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Iowa State #62
+0.431
Kansas #9
+0.504
Kansas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #49
+0.587
Kansas #17
+0.549
Iowa State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Iowa State #84
0.149
Kansas #54
0.171
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Iowa State #37
+8.062
Kansas #11
+8.122
Kansas Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Iowa State #99
+0.849
Kansas #16
+0.907
Kansas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Iowa State #52
70.0
Kansas #132
74.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Iowa State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Iowa State
3.1
Kansas
-0.3
Offense Rating
Iowa State
15.7
Kansas
15.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Iowa State
12.6
Kansas
15.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Iowa State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Iowa State #10
1.86
Kansas #64
0.29
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #6
0.00
Kansas #20
0.43
Iowa State +1.57
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Iowa State #1
44.7
Kansas #1
51.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa State #80
37.0
Kansas #13
24.1
Kansas +6.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas
75.0 — 8.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kansas won by 9
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
53–48 (53%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Taylor Mouser Yr 1 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
17–21 (45%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Jeff Grimes Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Borland Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself