Texas State at Sam Houston Week 5 College Football Matchup Texas State at Sam Houston Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 28 2024 · Week 5 · Neutral Site · 🏟 NRG Stadium Houston, TX · Turf · 72,220 cap
Texas State✈ 151 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
39 40
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas State
33
Sam Houston
22
P&R Line Texas State -11
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas State -11 · O/U 55.0
Matchup Prediction
Texas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Texas State wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Texas State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Texas State -11
O/U 55.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Sam Houston 3rd straight Home Game 🛋 Texas State Coming off BYE
Texas State 2024 Schedule
Texas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas State vs Lamar-26
Sat 9/7Texas State vs UTSA-2.5W49–1058.5W49–10OY
Thu 9/12Texas State vs Arizona State-2.5L28–3158.5L28–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Texas State vs Sam Houston-11.0L39–4055.0L39–40ON
Thu 10/3Texas State at Troy-14.5W38–1756.0W38–17UY
Sat 10/12Texas State vs Arkansas State-13.5W41–966.0W41–9UY
Sat 10/19Texas State at Old Dominion-10.5L14–2460.0L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/29Texas State vs Louisiana-4.0L17–2360.5L17–23UN
Sat 11/9Texas State at UL Monroe-9.5W38–1750.0W38–17OY
Sat 11/16Texas State vs Southern Miss-27.5W58–356.5W58–3OY
Sat 11/23Texas State vs Georgia State-23.0L44–5259.5L44–52ON
Fri 11/29Texas State at South Alabama-2.5W45–3860.5W45–38OY
Fri 1/3Texas State vs North Texas-15.5W30–2867.5W30–28UN
Sam Houston 2024 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Sam Houston at Rice+9.5W34–1449.0W34–14UY
Sat 9/7Sam Houston at UCF+21.5L14–4553.5L14–45ON
Sat 9/14Sam Houston vs Hawai'i-3.5W31–1348.5W31–13UY
Sat 9/21Sam Houston vs New Mexico State-15.5W31–1144.5W31–11UY
Sat 9/28Sam Houston vs Texas State+11.0W40–3955.0W40–39OY
Thu 10/3Sam Houston at UTEP-10.0W41–2149.5W41–21OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/16Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky-1.5L14–3155.0L14–31UN
Tue 10/22Sam Houston vs Florida International-5.0W10–747.0W10–7UN
Tue 10/29Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech-10.5W9–345.5W9–3UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Sam Houston at Kennesaw State-21.0W23–1742.5W23–17UN
Sat 11/23Sam Houston at Jacksonville State+5.5L11–2157.5L11–21UN
Fri 11/29Sam Houston vs Liberty+2.5W20–1847.5W20–18UY
Thu 12/19Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern+3.5W31–2648.0W31–26OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Texas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas State #25
+0.364
Sam Houston #115
+0.236
Texas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas State #13
+0.453
Sam Houston #114
+0.321
Texas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas State #26
0.186
Sam Houston #58
0.167
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas State #72
+7.731
Sam Houston #129
+6.447
Texas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas State #17
+0.898
Sam Houston #107
+0.780
Texas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas State #28
69.0
Sam Houston #37
69.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas State
1.5
Sam Houston
-19.3
Offense Rating
Texas State
17.8
Sam Houston
4.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas State
16.3
Sam Houston
23.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas State #53
1.00
Sam Houston #35
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas State #11
0.00
Sam Houston #25
0.75
Texas State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas State #1
67.1
Sam Houston #1
63.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas State #17
14.4
Sam Houston #39
27.6
Texas State +3.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Sam Houston
4 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas State
8.3 — 79.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Sam Houston won by 1
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas State
G. J. Kinne #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Mack Leftwich Yr 2 #1
DC Dexter McCoil Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Sam Houston
K. C. Keeler #1
88–36 (71%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Brad Cornelsen Yr 2 #1
DC Skyler Cassity Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself