Sun, Sep 1 2024
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium
San Marcos, TX
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Lamar✈ 231 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Texas State wins
Strong
Lamar 2024 Schedule
Lamar's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Lamar at Texas State | +5 | — | — | — | — |
Texas State 2024 Schedule
Texas State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Texas State vs Lamar | -26 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Texas State vs UTSA | -2.5W49–10 | 58.5 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/12 | Texas State vs Arizona State | -2.5L28–31 | 58.5 | L28–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Texas State vs Sam Houston | -11.0L39–40 | 55.0 | L39–40 | O | N |
| Thu 10/3 | Texas State at Troy | -14.5W38–17 | 56.0 | W38–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Texas State vs Arkansas State | -13.5W41–9 | 66.0 | W41–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Texas State at Old Dominion | -10.5L14–24 | 60.0 | L14–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/29 | Texas State vs Louisiana | -4.0L17–23 | 60.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Texas State at UL Monroe | -9.5W38–17 | 50.0 | W38–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Texas State vs Southern Miss | -27.5W58–3 | 56.5 | W58–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Texas State vs Georgia State | -23.0L44–52 | 59.5 | L44–52 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Texas State at South Alabama | -2.5W45–38 | 60.5 | W45–38 | O | Y |
| Fri 1/3 | Texas State vs North Texas | -15.5W30–28 | 67.5 | W30–28 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Lamar Edge
Lamar +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Texas State Edge
Texas State +42.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓