Southern Miss at Texas State Week 12 College Football Matchup Southern Miss at Texas State Matchup - Week 12
Sun, Nov 17 2024 · Week 12 · 🏟 Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium San Marcos, TX · Turf · 30,000 cap
Southern Miss✈ 520 miSame TZ
3 58
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Southern Miss
13
TXST -27.5
Texas State
44
P&R Line Texas State -30.5
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas State -27.5 · O/U 56.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Texas State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Texas State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Texas State -27.5
O/U 56.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Southern Miss 2024 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Southern Miss at Kentucky+25.5L0–3150.5L0–31UN
Sat 9/7Southern Miss vs SE Louisiana-17.5W35–1053.5W35–10UY
Sat 9/14Southern Miss vs South Florida+13.0L24–4958.5L24–49ON
Sat 9/21Southern Miss at Jacksonville State+6.0L7–4459.5L7–44UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Southern Miss vs Louisiana+17.5L13–2357.5L13–23UY
Sat 10/12Southern Miss at UL Monroe+4.5L21–3841.0L21–38ON
Sat 10/19Southern Miss vs Arkansas State+7.0L28–4457.0L28–44ON
Sat 10/26Southern Miss at James Madison+24.0L15–3254.0L15–32UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Southern Miss vs Marshall+13.5L3–3753.5L3–37UN
Sat 11/16Southern Miss at Texas State+27.5L3–5856.5L3–58ON
Sat 11/23Southern Miss vs South Alabama+24.0L14–3554.0L14–35UY
Sat 11/30Southern Miss at Troy+17.5L20–5248.5L20–52ON
Texas State 2024 Schedule
Texas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas State vs Lamar-26
Sat 9/7Texas State vs UTSA-2.5W49–1058.5W49–10OY
Thu 9/12Texas State vs Arizona State-2.5L28–3158.5L28–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Texas State vs Sam Houston-11.0L39–4055.0L39–40ON
Thu 10/3Texas State at Troy-14.5W38–1756.0W38–17UY
Sat 10/12Texas State vs Arkansas State-13.5W41–966.0W41–9UY
Sat 10/19Texas State at Old Dominion-10.5L14–2460.0L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/29Texas State vs Louisiana-4.0L17–2360.5L17–23UN
Sat 11/9Texas State at UL Monroe-9.5W38–1750.0W38–17OY
Sat 11/16Texas State vs Southern Miss-27.5W58–356.5W58–3OY
Sat 11/23Texas State vs Georgia State-23.0L44–5259.5L44–52ON
Fri 11/29Texas State at South Alabama-2.5W45–3860.5W45–38OY
Fri 1/3Texas State vs North Texas-15.5W30–2867.5W30–28UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Texas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Southern Miss #132
+0.137
Texas State #25
+0.556
Texas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Southern Miss #134
+0.141
Texas State #13
+0.745
Texas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Southern Miss #97
0.143
Texas State #26
0.186
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Southern Miss #133
+6.227
Texas State #72
+8.065
Texas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Southern Miss #130
+0.733
Texas State #17
+0.921
Texas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Southern Miss #123
73.5
Texas State #28
69.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Southern Miss
-12.9
Texas State
1.5
Offense Rating
Southern Miss
8.0
Texas State
17.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Southern Miss
21.0
Texas State
16.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Southern Miss #125
0.25
Texas State #53
1.13
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Southern Miss #117
2.13
Texas State #11
0.75
Texas State +0.88
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Southern Miss #1
15.8
Texas State #1
62.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Southern Miss #137
70.8
Texas State #17
23.5
Texas State +46.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas State
5 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Texas State
91.3 — 4.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Texas State won by 55
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Southern Miss
Will Hall #1
13–24 (35%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Chip Long Yr 1 #1
DC Clay Bignell Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas State
G. J. Kinne #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Mack Leftwich Yr 2 #1
DC Dexter McCoil Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself