Georgia State at Texas State Week 13 College Football Matchup Georgia State at Texas State Matchup - Week 13
Sun, Nov 24 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium San Marcos, TX · Turf · 30,000 cap
Georgia State✈ 837 mi-1 hr TZ
52 44
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Georgia State
17
Texas State
43
P&R Line Texas State -26.5
P&R Total O/U 59.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas State -23 · O/U 59.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Texas State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Texas State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Texas State -23
O/U 59.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Texas State 2nd straight Home Game
Georgia State 2024 Schedule
Georgia State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Georgia State at Georgia Tech+20.5L12–3557.0L12–35UN
Sat 9/7Georgia State vs Chattanooga-9.5W24–2151.5W24–21UN
Sat 9/14Georgia State vs Vanderbilt+8.5W36–3245.5W36–32OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Georgia State vs Georgia Southern-3.5L21–3857.5L21–38ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Georgia State vs Old Dominion-3.0L14–2153.0L14–21UN
Thu 10/17Georgia State at Marshall+9.5L20–3551.5L20–35ON
Sat 10/26Georgia State at App State+7.5L26–3359.0L26–33UY
Fri 11/1Georgia State at UConn+7.0L27–3448.0L27–34OY
Sat 11/9Georgia State at James Madison+14.5L7–3853.5L7–38UN
Sat 11/16Georgia State vs Arkansas State-2.5L20–2760.0L20–27UN
Sat 11/23Georgia State at Texas State+23.0W52–4459.5W52–44OY
Sat 11/30Georgia State vs Coastal Carolina-0.5L27–4852.5L27–48ON
Texas State 2024 Schedule
Texas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas State vs Lamar-26
Sat 9/7Texas State vs UTSA-2.5W49–1058.5W49–10OY
Thu 9/12Texas State vs Arizona State-2.5L28–3158.5L28–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Texas State vs Sam Houston-11.0L39–4055.0L39–40ON
Thu 10/3Texas State at Troy-14.5W38–1756.0W38–17UY
Sat 10/12Texas State vs Arkansas State-13.5W41–966.0W41–9UY
Sat 10/19Texas State at Old Dominion-10.5L14–2460.0L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/29Texas State vs Louisiana-4.0L17–2360.5L17–23UN
Sat 11/9Texas State at UL Monroe-9.5W38–1750.0W38–17OY
Sat 11/16Texas State vs Southern Miss-27.5W58–356.5W58–3OY
Sat 11/23Texas State vs Georgia State-23.0L44–5259.5L44–52ON
Fri 11/29Texas State at South Alabama-2.5W45–3860.5W45–38OY
Fri 1/3Texas State vs North Texas-15.5W30–2867.5W30–28UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Texas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Georgia State #92
+0.285
Texas State #25
+0.535
Texas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Georgia State #78
+0.430
Texas State #13
+0.771
Texas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Georgia State #109
0.137
Texas State #26
0.186
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Georgia State #76
+7.323
Texas State #72
+8.312
Texas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Georgia State #90
+0.798
Texas State #17
+0.957
Texas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Georgia State #35
69.4
Texas State #28
69.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Georgia State
-18.4
Texas State
4.4
Offense Rating
Georgia State
5.8
Texas State
17.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Georgia State
24.2
Texas State
13.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Georgia State #12
0.89
Texas State #53
1.56
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Georgia State #97
1.56
Texas State #11
0.67
Texas State +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Georgia State #1
23.0
Texas State #1
64.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Georgia State #116
56.4
Texas State #17
21.6
Texas State +41.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia State
2 — 4 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Georgia State
13.4 — 64.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Georgia State won by 8
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Georgia State
Dell McGee #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jim Chaney Yr 1 #1
DC Kevin Sherrer Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas State
G. J. Kinne #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Mack Leftwich Yr 2 #1
DC Dexter McCoil Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself