Texas State at UL Monroe Week 11 College Football Matchup Texas State at UL Monroe Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 9 2024 · Week 11 · 🏟 Malone Stadium Monroe, LA · Turf · 30,427 cap
Texas State✈ 391 miSame TZ
38 17
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas State
37
TXST -9.5
UL Monroe
16
P&R Line Texas State -21
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas State -9.5 · O/U 50.0
Matchup Prediction
Texas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Texas State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Texas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas State -9.5
O/U 50.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Texas State 2024 Schedule
Texas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas State vs Lamar-26
Sat 9/7Texas State vs UTSA-2.5W49–1058.5W49–10OY
Thu 9/12Texas State vs Arizona State-2.5L28–3158.5L28–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Texas State vs Sam Houston-11.0L39–4055.0L39–40ON
Thu 10/3Texas State at Troy-14.5W38–1756.0W38–17UY
Sat 10/12Texas State vs Arkansas State-13.5W41–966.0W41–9UY
Sat 10/19Texas State at Old Dominion-10.5L14–2460.0L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/29Texas State vs Louisiana-4.0L17–2360.5L17–23UN
Sat 11/9Texas State at UL Monroe-9.5W38–1750.0W38–17OY
Sat 11/16Texas State vs Southern Miss-27.5W58–356.5W58–3OY
Sat 11/23Texas State vs Georgia State-23.0L44–5259.5L44–52ON
Fri 11/29Texas State at South Alabama-2.5W45–3860.5W45–38OY
Fri 1/3Texas State vs North Texas-15.5W30–2867.5W30–28UN
UL Monroe 2024 Schedule
UL Monroe's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29UL Monroe vs Jackson State-4.5W30–1445.5W30–14UY
Sat 9/7UL Monroe vs UAB+10.5W32–655.5W32–6UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21UL Monroe at Texas+43.5L3–5154.5L3–51UN
Sat 9/28UL Monroe at Troy+6.0W13–946.0W13–9UY
Sat 10/5UL Monroe vs James Madison+16.5W21–1948.5W21–19UY
Sat 10/12UL Monroe vs Southern Miss-4.5W38–2141.0W38–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26UL Monroe at South Alabama+7.0L17–4645.0L17–46ON
Sat 11/2UL Monroe at Marshall+10.5L23–2848.0L23–28OY
Sat 11/9UL Monroe vs Texas State+9.5L17–3850.0L17–38ON
Sat 11/16UL Monroe at Auburn+24.5L14–4846.0L14–48ON
Sat 11/23UL Monroe at Arkansas State+3.0L21–2851.5L21–28UN
Sat 11/30UL Monroe vs Louisiana+8.5L23–3750.5L23–37ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Texas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas State #25
+0.457
UL Monroe #94
+0.283
Texas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas State #13
+0.570
UL Monroe #110
+0.327
Texas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas State #26
0.186
UL Monroe #120
0.127
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas State #72
+8.011
UL Monroe #117
+6.806
Texas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas State #17
+0.949
UL Monroe #121
+0.760
Texas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas State #28
69.0
UL Monroe #41
69.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas State
1.5
UL Monroe
-17.8
Offense Rating
Texas State
17.8
UL Monroe
8.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas State
16.3
UL Monroe
26.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas State #53
1.14
UL Monroe #129
0.29
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas State #11
0.71
UL Monroe #122
1.29
Texas State +0.86
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas State #1
58.6
UL Monroe #1
41.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas State #17
26.0
UL Monroe #99
34.9
Texas State +17.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas State
3.8 — 89.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Texas State won by 21
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas State
G. J. Kinne #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Mack Leftwich Yr 2 #1
DC Dexter McCoil Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UL Monroe
Bryant Vincent #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Bryant Vincent Yr 1 #1
DC Earnest Hill Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself