Fri, Nov 29 2024
·
Week 14
·
🏟 Hancock Whitney Stadium
Mobile, AL
·
Turf
·
25,000 cap
Texas State✈ 889 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors South Alabama,
while Game Control favors Texas State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
South Alabama wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Texas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas State -2.5
O/U 60.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Texas State 2024 Schedule
Texas State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Texas State vs Lamar | -26 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Texas State vs UTSA | -2.5W49–10 | 58.5 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/12 | Texas State vs Arizona State | -2.5L28–31 | 58.5 | L28–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Texas State vs Sam Houston | -11.0L39–40 | 55.0 | L39–40 | O | N |
| Thu 10/3 | Texas State at Troy | -14.5W38–17 | 56.0 | W38–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Texas State vs Arkansas State | -13.5W41–9 | 66.0 | W41–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Texas State at Old Dominion | -10.5L14–24 | 60.0 | L14–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/29 | Texas State vs Louisiana | -4.0L17–23 | 60.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Texas State at UL Monroe | -9.5W38–17 | 50.0 | W38–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Texas State vs Southern Miss | -27.5W58–3 | 56.5 | W58–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Texas State vs Georgia State | -23.0L44–52 | 59.5 | L44–52 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Texas State at South Alabama | -2.5W45–38 | 60.5 | W45–38 | O | Y |
| Fri 1/3 | Texas State vs North Texas | -15.5W30–28 | 67.5 | W30–28 | U | N |
South Alabama 2024 Schedule
South Alabama's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | South Alabama vs North Texas | -6.0L38–52 | 61.5 | L38–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | South Alabama at Ohio | -1.5L20–27 | 55.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Thu 9/12 | South Alabama vs Northwestern State | -36.5W87–10 | 60.5 | W87–10 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/19 | South Alabama at App State | +8.0W48–14 | 62.5 | W48–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | South Alabama at LSU | +21.0L10–42 | 64.5 | L10–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | South Alabama at Arkansas State | -2.5L16–18 | 62.5 | L16–18 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/15 | South Alabama vs Troy | -10.0W25–9 | 53.0 | W25–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | South Alabama vs UL Monroe | -7.0W46–17 | 45.0 | W46–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | South Alabama vs Georgia Southern | -5.5L30–34 | 60.0 | L30–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | South Alabama at Louisiana | +6.5W24–22 | 60.0 | W24–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | South Alabama at Southern Miss | -24.0W35–14 | 54.0 | W35–14 | U | N |
| Fri 11/29 | South Alabama vs Texas State | +2.5L38–45 | 60.5 | L38–45 | O | N |
| Sat 12/14 | South Alabama vs Western Michigan | -6.0W30–23 | 53.5 | W30–23 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Alabama Edge
South Alabama +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Texas State Edge
Texas State +10.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas State
23.8 — 54.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Texas State won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Texas State
G. J. Kinne #1
8–5 (62%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Mack Leftwich
Yr 2
#1
DC
Dexter McCoil
Yr 1
#1
South Alabama
Major Applewhite #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Rob Ezell
Yr 1
#1
DC
Will Windham
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓