Arkansas State at Texas State Week 7 College Football Matchup Arkansas State at Texas State Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 12 2024 · Week 7 · 🏟 Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium San Marcos, TX · Turf · 30,000 cap
Arkansas State✈ 588 miSame TZ
9 41
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Arkansas State
24
Texas State
39
P&R Line Texas State -15.5
P&R Total O/U 62.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas State -13.5 · O/U 66.0
Matchup Prediction
Texas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Texas State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Texas State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Texas State -13.5
O/U 66.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas State 2024 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas-18.5
Sat 9/7Arkansas State vs Tulsa-9.5W28–2465.5W28–24UN
Sat 9/14Arkansas State at Michigan+22.0L18–2847.5L18–28UY
Sat 9/21Arkansas State at Iowa State+20.5L7–5252.0L7–52ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Arkansas State vs South Alabama+2.5W18–1662.5W18–16UY
Sat 10/12Arkansas State at Texas State+13.5L9–4166.0L9–41UN
Sat 10/19Arkansas State at Southern Miss-7.0W44–2857.0W44–28OY
Sat 10/26Arkansas State vs Troy-8.5W34–3150.0W34–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Arkansas State at Louisiana+14.0L19–5560.0L19–55ON
Sat 11/16Arkansas State at Georgia State+2.5W27–2060.0W27–20UY
Sat 11/23Arkansas State vs UL Monroe-3.0W28–2151.5W28–21UY
Sat 11/30Arkansas State vs Old Dominion+5.5L32–4058.5L32–40ON
Thu 12/26Arkansas State vs Bowling Green+10.5W38–3154.5W38–31OY
Texas State 2024 Schedule
Texas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas State vs Lamar-26
Sat 9/7Texas State vs UTSA-2.5W49–1058.5W49–10OY
Thu 9/12Texas State vs Arizona State-2.5L28–3158.5L28–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Texas State vs Sam Houston-11.0L39–4055.0L39–40ON
Thu 10/3Texas State at Troy-14.5W38–1756.0W38–17UY
Sat 10/12Texas State vs Arkansas State-13.5W41–966.0W41–9UY
Sat 10/19Texas State at Old Dominion-10.5L14–2460.0L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/29Texas State vs Louisiana-4.0L17–2360.5L17–23UN
Sat 11/9Texas State at UL Monroe-9.5W38–1750.0W38–17OY
Sat 11/16Texas State vs Southern Miss-27.5W58–356.5W58–3OY
Sat 11/23Texas State vs Georgia State-23.0L44–5259.5L44–52ON
Fri 11/29Texas State at South Alabama-2.5W45–3860.5W45–38OY
Fri 1/3Texas State vs North Texas-15.5W30–2867.5W30–28UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Texas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Arkansas State #81
+0.305
Texas State #25
+0.559
Texas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Arkansas State #90
+0.401
Texas State #13
+0.747
Texas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Arkansas State #80
0.152
Texas State #26
0.186
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Arkansas State #63
+7.433
Texas State #72
+8.514
Texas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Arkansas State #91
+0.797
Texas State #17
+0.960
Texas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Arkansas State #104
72.4
Texas State #28
69.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Arkansas State
-18.1
Texas State
4.4
Offense Rating
Arkansas State
6.3
Texas State
17.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Arkansas State
24.3
Texas State
13.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Arkansas State #113
0.25
Texas State #53
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Arkansas State #115
1.00
Texas State #11
1.00
Texas State +0.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Arkansas State #1
25.7
Texas State #1
73.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Arkansas State #94
53.5
Texas State #17
11.5
Texas State +48.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas State
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Texas State
69.5 — 15.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Texas State won by 32
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
11–26 (30%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Keith Heckendorf Yr 3 #1
DC Rob Harley Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas State
G. J. Kinne #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Mack Leftwich Yr 2 #1
DC Dexter McCoil Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself