Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Virginia wins
Strong
Richmond 2024 Schedule
Richmond's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Richmond at Virginia | -0 | — | — | — | — |
Virginia 2024 Schedule
Virginia's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Virginia vs Richmond | -21 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Virginia at Wake Forest | -1.5W31–30 | 55.5 | W31–30 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Virginia vs Maryland | -2.5L13–27 | 55.5 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Virginia at Coastal Carolina | -3.5W43–24 | 52.0 | W43–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Virginia vs Boston College | -2.0W24–14 | 52.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Virginia vs Louisville | +7.0L20–24 | 54.0 | L20–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Virginia at Clemson | +20.0L31–48 | 57.5 | L31–48 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Virginia vs North Carolina | -3.5L14–41 | 58.5 | L14–41 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Virginia at Pittsburgh | +7.5W24–19 | 56.5 | W24–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Virginia at Notre Dame | +20.5L14–35 | 51.0 | L14–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Virginia vs SMU | +11.5L7–33 | 54.5 | L7–33 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Virginia at Virginia Tech | +4.5L17–37 | 44.5 | L17–37 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Richmond Edge
Richmond +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Virginia Edge
Virginia +22.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓