Virginia at Pittsburgh Week 11 College Football Matchup Virginia at Pittsburgh Matchup - Week 11
Sun, Nov 10 2024 · Week 11 · 🏟 Acrisure Stadium Pittsburgh, PA · Turf · 68,400 cap
Virginia✈ 185 miSame TZ
Away
24 19
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Virginia
24
PITT -7.5
Pittsburgh
33
P&R Line Pittsburgh -9.5
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Pittsburgh -7.5 · O/U 56.5
Matchup Prediction
Pittsburgh has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Pittsburgh entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Pittsburgh wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Pittsburgh wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Pittsburgh -7.5
O/U 56.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Pittsburgh · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Virginia Coming off BYE
Virginia 2024 Schedule
Virginia's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Virginia vs Richmond-21
Sat 9/7Virginia at Wake Forest-1.5W31–3055.5W31–30ON
Sat 9/14Virginia vs Maryland-2.5L13–2755.5L13–27UN
Sat 9/21Virginia at Coastal Carolina-3.5W43–2452.0W43–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Virginia vs Boston College-2.0W24–1452.5W24–14UY
Sat 10/12Virginia vs Louisville+7.0L20–2454.0L20–24UY
Sat 10/19Virginia at Clemson+20.0L31–4857.5L31–48OY
Sat 10/26Virginia vs North Carolina-3.5L14–4158.5L14–41UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Virginia at Pittsburgh+7.5W24–1956.5W24–19UY
Sat 11/16Virginia at Notre Dame+20.5L14–3551.0L14–35UN
Sat 11/23Virginia vs SMU+11.5L7–3354.5L7–33UN
Sat 11/30Virginia at Virginia Tech+4.5L17–3744.5L17–37ON
Pittsburgh 2024 Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Pittsburgh vs Kent State-23.5W55–2455.5W55–24OY
Sat 9/7Pittsburgh at Cincinnati-2.5W28–2762.5W28–27UN
Sat 9/14Pittsburgh vs West Virginia+2.5W38–3460.5W38–34OY
Sat 9/21Pittsburgh vs Youngstown State-29.5W73–1759.5W73–17OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Pittsburgh at North Carolina-2.5W34–2463.0W34–24UY
Sat 10/12Pittsburgh vs California-3.5W17–1557.5W17–15UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/24Pittsburgh vs Syracuse-5.0W41–1362.5W41–13UY
Sat 11/2Pittsburgh at SMU+7.0L25–4855.5L25–48ON
Sat 11/9Pittsburgh vs Virginia-7.5L19–2456.5L19–24UN
Sat 11/16Pittsburgh vs Clemson+12.0L20–2452.0L20–24UY
Sat 11/23Pittsburgh at Louisville+7.0L9–3757.0L9–37UN
Sat 11/30Pittsburgh at Boston College+3.5L23–3450.5L23–34ON
Thu 12/26Pittsburgh vs Toledo-6.5L46–4848.5L46–48ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Pittsburgh PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Pittsburgh
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Virginia #102
+0.248
Pittsburgh #91
+0.418
Pittsburgh Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Virginia #122
+0.342
Pittsburgh #112
+0.499
Pittsburgh Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Virginia #91
0.145
Pittsburgh #31
0.183
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Pittsburgh Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Virginia #106
+7.144
Pittsburgh #49
+8.143
Pittsburgh Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Virginia #103
+0.781
Pittsburgh #85
+0.842
Pittsburgh Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Virginia #61
70.5
Pittsburgh #108
72.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Virginia Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Pittsburgh Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Virginia
7.0
Pittsburgh
9.1
Offense Rating
Virginia
17.9
Pittsburgh
19.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Virginia
10.9
Pittsburgh
10.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Virginia #65
1.43
Pittsburgh #6
2.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia #83
1.14
Pittsburgh #82
1.14
Pittsburgh +0.57
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Pittsburgh Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Virginia #1
36.3
Pittsburgh #1
54.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia #117
48.5
Pittsburgh #86
31.0
Pittsburgh +17.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Pittsburgh
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Virginia
27.4 — 46.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Virginia won by 5
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Pittsburgh with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Virginia
Tony Elliott #1
6–16 (27%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Des Kitchings Yr 3 #1
DC John Rudzinski Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi #1
65–50 (57%) · Yr 10 at school
OC Kade Bell Yr 1 #1
DC Randy Bates Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself