Sat, Sep 21 2024
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Brooks Stadium
Conway, SC
·
Turf
·
9,214 cap
Virginia✈ 294 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Virginia,
while Game Control favors Coastal Carolina.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Virginia wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Coastal Carolina wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Virginia -3.5
O/U 52.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Virginia 2024 Schedule
Virginia's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Virginia vs Richmond | -21 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Virginia at Wake Forest | -1.5W31–30 | 55.5 | W31–30 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Virginia vs Maryland | -2.5L13–27 | 55.5 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Virginia at Coastal Carolina | -3.5W43–24 | 52.0 | W43–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Virginia vs Boston College | -2.0W24–14 | 52.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Virginia vs Louisville | +7.0L20–24 | 54.0 | L20–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Virginia at Clemson | +20.0L31–48 | 57.5 | L31–48 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Virginia vs North Carolina | -3.5L14–41 | 58.5 | L14–41 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Virginia at Pittsburgh | +7.5W24–19 | 56.5 | W24–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Virginia at Notre Dame | +20.5L14–35 | 51.0 | L14–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Virginia vs SMU | +11.5L7–33 | 54.5 | L7–33 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Virginia at Virginia Tech | +4.5L17–37 | 44.5 | L17–37 | O | N |
Coastal Carolina 2024 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Coastal Carolina at Jacksonville State | +3.5W55–27 | 54.5 | W55–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Coastal Carolina vs William & Mary | -17.5W40–21 | 0.0 | W40–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Coastal Carolina at Temple | -17.5W28–20 | 51.5 | W28–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Coastal Carolina vs Virginia | +3.5L24–43 | 52.0 | L24–43 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Coastal Carolina vs Old Dominion | -4.0W45–37 | 51.5 | W45–37 | O | Y |
| Thu 10/10 | Coastal Carolina at James Madison | +7.0L7–39 | 59.0 | L7–39 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana | +6.0L24–34 | 57.0 | L24–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Coastal Carolina at Troy | -4.0L24–38 | 52.0 | L24–38 | O | N |
| Thu 11/7 | Coastal Carolina vs App State | +1.5W38–24 | 62.5 | W38–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Coastal Carolina at Marshall | +7.5L19–31 | 57.0 | L19–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Coastal Carolina vs Georgia Southern | -2.0L6–26 | 59.5 | L6–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Coastal Carolina at Georgia State | +0.5W48–27 | 52.5 | W48–27 | O | Y |
| Mon 12/23 | Coastal Carolina at UTSA | +12.5L15–44 | 56.5 | L15–44 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Virginia Edge
Virginia +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Coastal Carolina Edge
Coastal Carolina +41.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Virginia
Tony Elliott #1
6–16 (27%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Des Kitchings
Yr 3
#1
DC
John Rudzinski
Yr 3
#1
Coastal Carolina
Tim Beck* #1
8–5 (62%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Travis Trickett
Yr 2
#1
DC
Craig Naivar
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

