Virginia at Coastal Carolina Week 4 College Football Matchup Virginia at Coastal Carolina Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 21 2024 · Week 4 · 🏟 Brooks Stadium Conway, SC · Turf · 9,214 cap
Virginia✈ 294 miSame TZ
Away
43 24
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Virginia
29
UVA -3.5
Coastal Carolina
25
P&R Line Virginia -4
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Virginia -3.5 · O/U 52.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Virginia, while Game Control favors Coastal Carolina. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Virginia wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Coastal Carolina wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Virginia -3.5
O/U 52.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Virginia 2024 Schedule
Virginia's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Virginia vs Richmond-21
Sat 9/7Virginia at Wake Forest-1.5W31–3055.5W31–30ON
Sat 9/14Virginia vs Maryland-2.5L13–2755.5L13–27UN
Sat 9/21Virginia at Coastal Carolina-3.5W43–2452.0W43–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Virginia vs Boston College-2.0W24–1452.5W24–14UY
Sat 10/12Virginia vs Louisville+7.0L20–2454.0L20–24UY
Sat 10/19Virginia at Clemson+20.0L31–4857.5L31–48OY
Sat 10/26Virginia vs North Carolina-3.5L14–4158.5L14–41UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Virginia at Pittsburgh+7.5W24–1956.5W24–19UY
Sat 11/16Virginia at Notre Dame+20.5L14–3551.0L14–35UN
Sat 11/23Virginia vs SMU+11.5L7–3354.5L7–33UN
Sat 11/30Virginia at Virginia Tech+4.5L17–3744.5L17–37ON
Coastal Carolina 2024 Schedule
Coastal Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Coastal Carolina at Jacksonville State+3.5W55–2754.5W55–27OY
Sat 9/7Coastal Carolina vs William & Mary-17.5W40–210.0W40–21OY
Sat 9/14Coastal Carolina at Temple-17.5W28–2051.5W28–20UN
Sat 9/21Coastal Carolina vs Virginia+3.5L24–4352.0L24–43ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Coastal Carolina vs Old Dominion-4.0W45–3751.5W45–37OY
Thu 10/10Coastal Carolina at James Madison+7.0L7–3959.0L7–39UN
Sat 10/19Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana+6.0L24–3457.0L24–34ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Coastal Carolina at Troy-4.0L24–3852.0L24–38ON
Thu 11/7Coastal Carolina vs App State+1.5W38–2462.5W38–24UY
Sat 11/16Coastal Carolina at Marshall+7.5L19–3157.0L19–31UN
Sat 11/23Coastal Carolina vs Georgia Southern-2.0L6–2659.5L6–26UN
Sat 11/30Coastal Carolina at Georgia State+0.5W48–2752.5W48–27OY
Mon 12/23Coastal Carolina at UTSA+12.5L15–4456.5L15–44ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Coastal Carolina PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Virginia #102
+0.345
Coastal Carolina #73
+0.449
Coastal Carolina Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Virginia #122
+0.411
Coastal Carolina #68
+0.627
Coastal Carolina Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Virginia #91
0.145
Coastal Carolina #111
0.136
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Virginia Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Virginia #106
+7.589
Coastal Carolina #36
+8.278
Coastal Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Virginia #103
+0.834
Coastal Carolina #98
+0.830
Virginia Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Virginia #61
70.5
Coastal Carolina #65
70.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Virginia Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Virginia
7.0
Coastal Carolina
-14.3
Offense Rating
Virginia
17.9
Coastal Carolina
7.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Virginia
10.9
Coastal Carolina
22.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Virginia Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Virginia #65
1.00
Coastal Carolina #110
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia #83
1.50
Coastal Carolina #96
0.00
Virginia +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Coastal Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Virginia #1
44.8
Coastal Carolina #1
86.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia #117
39.3
Coastal Carolina #74
6.2
Coastal Carolina +41.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Virginia
Tony Elliott #1
6–16 (27%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Des Kitchings Yr 3 #1
DC John Rudzinski Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Coastal Carolina
Tim Beck* #1
8–5 (62%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Travis Trickett Yr 2 #1
DC Craig Naivar Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself