Virginia at Virginia Tech Week 14 College Football Matchup Virginia at Virginia Tech Matchup - Week 14
Sun, Dec 1 2024 · Week 14 · 🏟 Lane Stadium Blacksburg, VA · Turf · 66,233 cap
Virginia✈ 118 miSame TZ
Away
17 37
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Virginia
16
Virginia Tech
32
P&R Line Virginia Tech -16
P&R Total O/U 48
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Virginia Tech -4.5 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Virginia Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Virginia Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Virginia Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Virginia Tech wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Virginia Tech -4.5
O/U 44.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Virginia Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Virginia 2024 Schedule
Virginia's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Virginia vs Richmond-21
Sat 9/7Virginia at Wake Forest-1.5W31–3055.5W31–30ON
Sat 9/14Virginia vs Maryland-2.5L13–2755.5L13–27UN
Sat 9/21Virginia at Coastal Carolina-3.5W43–2452.0W43–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Virginia vs Boston College-2.0W24–1452.5W24–14UY
Sat 10/12Virginia vs Louisville+7.0L20–2454.0L20–24UY
Sat 10/19Virginia at Clemson+20.0L31–4857.5L31–48OY
Sat 10/26Virginia vs North Carolina-3.5L14–4158.5L14–41UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Virginia at Pittsburgh+7.5W24–1956.5W24–19UY
Sat 11/16Virginia at Notre Dame+20.5L14–3551.0L14–35UN
Sat 11/23Virginia vs SMU+11.5L7–3354.5L7–33UN
Sat 11/30Virginia at Virginia Tech+4.5L17–3744.5L17–37ON
Virginia Tech 2024 Schedule
Virginia Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt-13.5L27–3453.5L27–34ON
Sat 9/7Virginia Tech vs Marshall-20.5W31–1452.5W31–14UN
Sat 9/14Virginia Tech at Old Dominion-15.5W37–1747.5W37–17OY
Sat 9/21Virginia Tech vs Rutgers-3.0L23–2645.0L23–26ON
Fri 9/27Virginia Tech at Miami+17.5L34–3855.5L34–38OY
Sat 10/5Virginia Tech at Stanford-9.5W31–750.0W31–7UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/17Virginia Tech vs Boston College-8.5W42–2147.5W42–21OY
Sat 10/26Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech-11.0W21–652.0W21–6UY
Sat 11/2Virginia Tech at Syracuse-3.5L31–3854.0L31–38ON
Sat 11/9Virginia Tech vs Clemson+6.5L14–2454.5L14–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Virginia Tech at Duke-2.5L28–3145.5L28–31ON
Sat 11/30Virginia Tech vs Virginia-4.5W37–1744.5W37–17OY
Fri 1/3Virginia Tech vs Minnesota+10.0L10–2443.5L10–24UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Virginia Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Virginia Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Virginia Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Virginia Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Virginia #102
+0.218
Virginia Tech #75
+0.443
Virginia Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Virginia #122
+0.285
Virginia Tech #100
+0.536
Virginia Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Virginia #91
0.145
Virginia Tech #10
0.201
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Virginia Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Virginia #106
+6.440
Virginia Tech #40
+8.262
Virginia Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Virginia #103
+0.789
Virginia Tech #87
+0.841
Virginia Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Virginia #61
70.5
Virginia Tech #46
69.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Virginia Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Virginia Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Virginia
7.0
Virginia Tech
5.9
Offense Rating
Virginia
17.9
Virginia Tech
18.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Virginia
10.9
Virginia Tech
12.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Virginia Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Virginia #65
1.10
Virginia Tech #8
1.64
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia #83
1.20
Virginia Tech #64
1.09
Virginia Tech +0.54
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Virginia Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Virginia #1
32.0
Virginia Tech #1
52.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Virginia #117
52.6
Virginia Tech #41
32.0
Virginia Tech +20.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Virginia Tech
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Virginia Tech
89.9 — 5.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Virginia Tech won by 20
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Virginia Tech with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Virginia
Tony Elliott #1
6–16 (27%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Des Kitchings Yr 3 #1
DC John Rudzinski Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Virginia Tech
Brent Pry #1
10–14 (42%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Tyler Bowen Yr 3 #1
DC Chris Marve Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself