Sat, Nov 30 2024
·
Week 14
·
🏟 Sanford Stadium
Athens, GA
·
Turf
·
92,746 cap
Matchup Prediction
Georgia
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Georgia entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Georgia wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Georgia wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia -17.5
O/U 48.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Georgia
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia Tech 2024 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/24 | Georgia Tech vs Florida State | +10.0W24–21 | 54.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 8/31 | Georgia Tech vs Georgia State | -20.5W35–12 | 57.0 | W35–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Georgia Tech at Syracuse | -2.5L28–31 | 60.5 | L28–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Georgia Tech vs VMI | -42.5W59–7 | 53.5 | W59–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Georgia Tech at Louisville | +9.5L19–31 | 56.0 | L19–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Georgia Tech vs Duke | -10.0W24–14 | 52.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Georgia Tech at North Carolina | -3.5W41–34 | 60.5 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Georgia Tech vs Notre Dame | +14.0L13–31 | 49.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech | +11.0L6–21 | 52.0 | L6–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Georgia Tech vs Miami | +9.5W28–23 | 64.5 | W28–23 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/21 | Georgia Tech vs NC State | -7.5W30–29 | 51.5 | W30–29 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Georgia Tech at Georgia | +17.5L42–44 | 48.5 | L42–44 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/27 | Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt | -3.0L27–35 | 49.0 | L27–35 | O | N |
Georgia 2024 Schedule
Georgia's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Georgia vs Clemson | -10.5W34–3 | 49.0 | W34–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Georgia vs Tennessee Tech | -54.5W48–3 | 62.5 | W48–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Georgia at Kentucky | -24.0W13–12 | 45.0 | W13–12 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Georgia at Alabama | -2.0L34–41 | 50.0 | L34–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Georgia vs Auburn | -21.0W31–13 | 50.0 | W31–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Georgia vs Mississippi State | -34.0W41–31 | 53.5 | W41–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Georgia at Texas | +4.0W30–15 | 57.0 | W30–15 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Georgia vs Florida | -14.5W34–20 | 52.5 | W34–20 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Georgia at Ole Miss | -1.5L10–28 | 54.5 | L10–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Georgia vs Tennessee | -8.5W31–17 | 47.0 | W31–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Georgia vs Massachusetts | -42.5W59–21 | 55.5 | W59–21 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Georgia vs Georgia Tech | -17.5W44–42 | 48.5 | W44–42 | O | N |
| Sat 12/7 | Georgia vs Texas | +2.5W22–19 | 50.5 | W22–19 | U | Y |
| Thu 1/2 | Georgia vs Notre Dame | +1.5L10–23 | 46.5 | L10–23 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Georgia
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Georgia
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Edge
Georgia +1.10
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia Edge
Georgia +8.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Georgia Tech
10.9 — 68.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Georgia won by 2
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Georgia. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
11–10 (52%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Buster Faulkner
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tyler Santucci
Yr 1
#1
Georgia
Kirby Smart #1
94–16 (86%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Mike Bobo
Yr 2
#1
DC
Glenn Schumann
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓