Georgia Tech at Syracuse Week 2 College Football Matchup Georgia Tech at Syracuse Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 7 2024 · Week 2 · 🏟 Carrier Dome Syracuse, NY · Turf · 49,250 cap
Georgia Tech✈ 779 miSame TZ
28 31
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Georgia Tech
27
SYR +2.5
Syracuse
32
P&R Line Syracuse -5
P&R Total O/U 59.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Georgia Tech -2.5 · O/U 60.5
Matchup Prediction
Syracuse has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Syracuse entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Syracuse wins
Strong
Game Control
50.6%
Syracuse wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Georgia Tech -2.5
O/U 60.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Syracuse 2nd straight Home Game
Georgia Tech 2024 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24Georgia Tech vs Florida State+10.0W24–2154.5W24–21UY
Sat 8/31Georgia Tech vs Georgia State-20.5W35–1257.0W35–12UY
Sat 9/7Georgia Tech at Syracuse-2.5L28–3160.5L28–31UN
Sat 9/14Georgia Tech vs VMI-42.5W59–753.5W59–7OY
Sat 9/21Georgia Tech at Louisville+9.5L19–3156.0L19–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Georgia Tech vs Duke-10.0W24–1452.5W24–14UN
Sat 10/12Georgia Tech at North Carolina-3.5W41–3460.5W41–34OY
Sat 10/19Georgia Tech vs Notre Dame+14.0L13–3149.5L13–31UN
Sat 10/26Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech+11.0L6–2152.0L6–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Georgia Tech vs Miami+9.5W28–2364.5W28–23UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/21Georgia Tech vs NC State-7.5W30–2951.5W30–29ON
Fri 11/29Georgia Tech at Georgia+17.5L42–4448.5L42–44OY
Fri 12/27Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt-3.0L27–3549.0L27–35ON
Syracuse 2024 Schedule
Syracuse's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Syracuse vs Ohio-17.5W38–2247.5W38–22ON
Sat 9/7Syracuse vs Georgia Tech+2.5W31–2860.5W31–28UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 9/20Syracuse vs Stanford-9.5L24–2656.5L24–26UN
Sat 9/28Syracuse vs Holy Cross-31.5W42–1459.5W42–14UN
Fri 10/4Syracuse at UNLV+5.5W44–4155.5W44–41OY
Sat 10/12Syracuse at NC State-1.0W24–1751.5W24–17UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/24Syracuse at Pittsburgh+5.0L13–4162.5L13–41UN
Sat 11/2Syracuse vs Virginia Tech+3.5W38–3154.0W38–31OY
Sat 11/9Syracuse at Boston College+5.5L31–3751.5L31–37ON
Sat 11/16Syracuse at California+10.5W33–2558.0W33–25UY
Sat 11/23Syracuse vs UConn-10.0W31–2453.0W31–24ON
Sat 11/30Syracuse vs Miami+12.5W42–3865.5W42–38OY
Fri 12/27Syracuse vs Washington State-19.0W52–3558.5W52–35ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Georgia Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Georgia Tech #36
+0.477
Syracuse #28
+0.413
Georgia Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #26
+0.705
Syracuse #18
+0.645
Georgia Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #78
0.153
Syracuse #52
0.171
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Syracuse Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #35
+8.541
Syracuse #38
+8.197
Georgia Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Georgia Tech #29
+0.894
Syracuse #14
+0.904
Syracuse Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Georgia Tech #113
72.9
Syracuse #71
71.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Syracuse Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Georgia Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Georgia Tech
1.1
Syracuse
-2.2
Offense Rating
Georgia Tech
14.2
Syracuse
16.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Georgia Tech
13.1
Syracuse
18.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Syracuse Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Georgia Tech #79
1.00
Syracuse #4
3.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Georgia Tech #34
0.50
Syracuse #32
1.00
Syracuse +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Syracuse Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Georgia Tech #1
53.7
Syracuse #1
57.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Georgia Tech #52
19.2
Syracuse #54
19.2
Syracuse +4.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Syracuse
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Syracuse
74.3 — 10.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Syracuse won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Syracuse, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
11–10 (52%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Buster Faulkner Yr 2 #1
DC Tyler Santucci Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Syracuse
Fran Brown #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Mike Johnson Yr 1 #1
DC Elijah Robinson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself