Fri, Dec 27 2024
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Protective Stadium
Birmingham, AL
·
Turf
·
47,100 cap
Georgia Tech✈ 139 mi-1 hr TZ
Vanderbilt✈ 181 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Vanderbilt,
while Game Control favors Georgia Tech.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Vanderbilt wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Georgia Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia Tech -3
O/U 49.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Georgia Tech
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia Tech 2024 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/24 | Georgia Tech vs Florida State | +10.0W24–21 | 54.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 8/31 | Georgia Tech vs Georgia State | -20.5W35–12 | 57.0 | W35–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Georgia Tech at Syracuse | -2.5L28–31 | 60.5 | L28–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Georgia Tech vs VMI | -42.5W59–7 | 53.5 | W59–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Georgia Tech at Louisville | +9.5L19–31 | 56.0 | L19–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Georgia Tech vs Duke | -10.0W24–14 | 52.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Georgia Tech at North Carolina | -3.5W41–34 | 60.5 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Georgia Tech vs Notre Dame | +14.0L13–31 | 49.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech | +11.0L6–21 | 52.0 | L6–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Georgia Tech vs Miami | +9.5W28–23 | 64.5 | W28–23 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/21 | Georgia Tech vs NC State | -7.5W30–29 | 51.5 | W30–29 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Georgia Tech at Georgia | +17.5L42–44 | 48.5 | L42–44 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/27 | Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt | -3.0L27–35 | 49.0 | L27–35 | O | N |
Vanderbilt 2024 Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Vanderbilt vs Virginia Tech | +13.5W34–27 | 53.5 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Vanderbilt vs Alcorn State | -32.5W55–0 | 47.5 | W55–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Vanderbilt at Georgia State | -8.5L32–36 | 45.5 | L32–36 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Vanderbilt at Missouri | +17.5L27–30 | 52.0 | L27–30 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Vanderbilt vs Alabama | +23.5W40–35 | 53.5 | W40–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Vanderbilt at Kentucky | +12.5W20–13 | 44.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Vanderbilt vs Ball State | -27.5W24–14 | 57.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Vanderbilt vs Texas | +17.0L24–27 | 50.5 | L24–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Vanderbilt at Auburn | +7.5W17–7 | 48.0 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Vanderbilt vs South Carolina | +6.0L7–28 | 44.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Vanderbilt at LSU | +10.0L17–24 | 53.0 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Vanderbilt vs Tennessee | +9.5L23–36 | 45.5 | L23–36 | O | N |
| Fri 12/27 | Vanderbilt vs Georgia Tech | +3.0W35–27 | 49.0 | W35–27 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Vanderbilt Edge
Vanderbilt +0.18
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia Tech Edge
Georgia Tech +5.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Vanderbilt
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Vanderbilt
62.2 — 12.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Vanderbilt won by 8
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
11–10 (52%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Buster Faulkner
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tyler Santucci
Yr 1
#1
Vanderbilt
Clark Lea #1
9–27 (25%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Tim Beck
Yr 1
#1
DC
Clark Lea
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

