Georgia Tech at Vanderbilt Week 1 College Football Matchup Georgia Tech at Vanderbilt Matchup - Week 1
Fri, Dec 27 2024 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Protective Stadium Birmingham, AL · Turf · 47,100 cap
Georgia Tech✈ 139 mi-1 hr TZ Vanderbilt✈ 181 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
27 35
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Georgia Tech
26
Vanderbilt
25
P&R Line Georgia Tech -0.5
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Georgia Tech -3 · O/U 49.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Vanderbilt, while Game Control favors Georgia Tech. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Vanderbilt wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Georgia Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia Tech -3
O/U 49.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Georgia Tech · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Vanderbilt 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Georgia Tech 2nd straight Road Game
Georgia Tech 2024 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24Georgia Tech vs Florida State+10.0W24–2154.5W24–21UY
Sat 8/31Georgia Tech vs Georgia State-20.5W35–1257.0W35–12UY
Sat 9/7Georgia Tech at Syracuse-2.5L28–3160.5L28–31UN
Sat 9/14Georgia Tech vs VMI-42.5W59–753.5W59–7OY
Sat 9/21Georgia Tech at Louisville+9.5L19–3156.0L19–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Georgia Tech vs Duke-10.0W24–1452.5W24–14UN
Sat 10/12Georgia Tech at North Carolina-3.5W41–3460.5W41–34OY
Sat 10/19Georgia Tech vs Notre Dame+14.0L13–3149.5L13–31UN
Sat 10/26Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech+11.0L6–2152.0L6–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Georgia Tech vs Miami+9.5W28–2364.5W28–23UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/21Georgia Tech vs NC State-7.5W30–2951.5W30–29ON
Fri 11/29Georgia Tech at Georgia+17.5L42–4448.5L42–44OY
Fri 12/27Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt-3.0L27–3549.0L27–35ON
Vanderbilt 2024 Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Vanderbilt vs Virginia Tech+13.5W34–2753.5W34–27OY
Sat 9/7Vanderbilt vs Alcorn State-32.5W55–047.5W55–0OY
Sat 9/14Vanderbilt at Georgia State-8.5L32–3645.5L32–36ON
Sat 9/21Vanderbilt at Missouri+17.5L27–3052.0L27–30OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Vanderbilt vs Alabama+23.5W40–3553.5W40–35OY
Sat 10/12Vanderbilt at Kentucky+12.5W20–1344.5W20–13UY
Sat 10/19Vanderbilt vs Ball State-27.5W24–1457.5W24–14UN
Sat 10/26Vanderbilt vs Texas+17.0L24–2750.5L24–27OY
Sat 11/2Vanderbilt at Auburn+7.5W17–748.0W17–7UY
Sat 11/9Vanderbilt vs South Carolina+6.0L7–2844.5L7–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Vanderbilt at LSU+10.0L17–2453.0L17–24UY
Sat 11/30Vanderbilt vs Tennessee+9.5L23–3645.5L23–36ON
Fri 12/27Vanderbilt vs Georgia Tech+3.0W35–2749.0W35–27OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Georgia Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Georgia Tech #36
+0.489
Vanderbilt #76
+0.336
Georgia Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #26
+0.726
Vanderbilt #33
+0.605
Georgia Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #78
0.153
Vanderbilt #65
0.163
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Vanderbilt Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Georgia Tech #35
+8.472
Vanderbilt #34
+8.223
Georgia Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Georgia Tech #29
+0.928
Vanderbilt #75
+0.845
Georgia Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Georgia Tech #113
72.9
Vanderbilt #22
68.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Vanderbilt Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Vanderbilt Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Georgia Tech
1.1
Vanderbilt
3.7
Offense Rating
Georgia Tech
14.2
Vanderbilt
14.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Georgia Tech
13.1
Vanderbilt
10.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Vanderbilt Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Georgia Tech #79
0.82
Vanderbilt #48
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Georgia Tech #34
0.73
Vanderbilt #39
0.82
Vanderbilt +0.18
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Georgia Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Georgia Tech #1
47.3
Vanderbilt #1
42.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Georgia Tech #52
31.5
Vanderbilt #51
35.6
Georgia Tech +5.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Vanderbilt
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Vanderbilt
62.2 — 12.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Vanderbilt won by 8
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
11–10 (52%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Buster Faulkner Yr 2 #1
DC Tyler Santucci Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Vanderbilt
Clark Lea #1
9–27 (25%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Tim Beck Yr 1 #1
DC Clark Lea Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself