Sat, Sep 21 2024
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Louisville, KY
·
Turf
·
55,000 cap
Georgia Tech✈ 315 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Louisville
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Louisville entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Louisville wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Louisville wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Louisville -9.5
O/U 56.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Louisville
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia Tech 2024 Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/24 | Georgia Tech vs Florida State | +10.0W24–21 | 54.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 8/31 | Georgia Tech vs Georgia State | -20.5W35–12 | 57.0 | W35–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Georgia Tech at Syracuse | -2.5L28–31 | 60.5 | L28–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Georgia Tech vs VMI | -42.5W59–7 | 53.5 | W59–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Georgia Tech at Louisville | +9.5L19–31 | 56.0 | L19–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Georgia Tech vs Duke | -10.0W24–14 | 52.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Georgia Tech at North Carolina | -3.5W41–34 | 60.5 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Georgia Tech vs Notre Dame | +14.0L13–31 | 49.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech | +11.0L6–21 | 52.0 | L6–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Georgia Tech vs Miami | +9.5W28–23 | 64.5 | W28–23 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/21 | Georgia Tech vs NC State | -7.5W30–29 | 51.5 | W30–29 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Georgia Tech at Georgia | +17.5L42–44 | 48.5 | L42–44 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/27 | Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt | -3.0L27–35 | 49.0 | L27–35 | O | N |
Louisville 2024 Schedule
Louisville's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Louisville vs Austin Peay | -38.5W62–0 | 54.5 | W62–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Louisville vs Jacksonville State | -27.5W49–14 | 56.5 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Louisville vs Georgia Tech | -9.5W31–19 | 56.0 | W31–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Louisville at Notre Dame | +6.5L24–31 | 45.0 | L24–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Louisville vs SMU | -6.5L27–34 | 55.0 | L27–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Louisville at Virginia | -7.0W24–20 | 54.0 | W24–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Louisville vs Miami | +4.5L45–52 | 61.5 | L45–52 | O | N |
| Fri 10/25 | Louisville at Boston College | -7.0W31–27 | 54.0 | W31–27 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Louisville at Clemson | +11.0W33–21 | 62.5 | W33–21 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Louisville at Stanford | -21.0L35–38 | 57.5 | L35–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Louisville vs Pittsburgh | -7.0W37–9 | 57.0 | W37–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Louisville at Kentucky | -3.5W41–14 | 48.5 | W41–14 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | Louisville vs Washington | +1.0W35–34 | 50.5 | W35–34 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Louisville
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisville
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisville
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +1.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +40.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia Tech
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Louisville
56.3 — 18.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Louisville won by 12
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Louisville with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia Tech
Brent Key #1
11–10 (52%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Buster Faulkner
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tyler Santucci
Yr 1
#1
Louisville
Jeff Brohm #1
10–4 (71%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Brian Brohm
Yr 2
#1
DC
Ron English
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓