Western Kentucky at Alabama Week 1 College Football Matchup Western Kentucky at Alabama Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Aug 31 2024 · Week 1 · 🏟 Bryant Denny Stadium Tuscaloosa, AL · Turf · 101,821 cap
Western Kentucky✈ 268 miSame TZ
0 63
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Western Kentucky
13
WKU +31
Alabama
42
P&R Line Alabama -28.5
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Alabama -31 · O/U 60.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Alabama -31
O/U 60.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Alabama · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Western Kentucky 2024 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Western Kentucky at Alabama+31.0L0–6360.0L0–63ON
Sat 9/7Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky-18.5W31–059.5W31–0UY
Sat 9/14Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee-10.5W49–2153.5W49–21OY
Sat 9/21Western Kentucky vs Toledo+2.0W26–2160.5W26–21UY
Sat 9/28Western Kentucky at Boston College+7.5L20–2148.0L20–21UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Western Kentucky vs UTEP-19.0W44–1755.5W44–17OY
Wed 10/16Western Kentucky at Sam Houston+1.5W31–1455.0W31–14UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/30Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State-24.0W31–1449.0W31–14UN
Sat 11/9Western Kentucky at New Mexico State-18.0W41–2853.5W41–28ON
Sat 11/16Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech-11.5L7–1252.5L7–12UN
Sat 11/23Western Kentucky at Liberty+1.0L21–3856.5L21–38ON
Sat 11/30Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State+0.5W19–1762.5W19–17UY
Fri 12/6Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State+4.5L12–5258.5L12–52ON
Wed 12/18Western Kentucky vs James Madison+7.5L17–2750.5L17–27UN
Alabama 2024 Schedule
Alabama's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Alabama vs Western Kentucky-31.0W63–060.0W63–0OY
Sat 9/7Alabama vs South Florida-33.5W42–1665.5W42–16UN
Sat 9/14Alabama at Wisconsin-15.5W42–1051.0W42–10OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Alabama vs Georgia+2.0W41–3450.0W41–34OY
Sat 10/5Alabama at Vanderbilt-23.5L35–4053.5L35–40ON
Sat 10/12Alabama vs South Carolina-21.0W27–2550.0W27–25ON
Sat 10/19Alabama at Tennessee-3.5L17–2457.5L17–24UN
Sat 10/26Alabama vs Missouri-16.0W34–051.5W34–0UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Alabama at LSU-2.5W42–1357.5W42–13UY
Sat 11/16Alabama vs Mercer-42.0W52–758.5W52–7OY
Sat 11/23Alabama at Oklahoma-14.0L3–2447.0L3–24UN
Sat 11/30Alabama vs Auburn-10.5W28–1450.5W28–14UY
Tue 12/31Alabama vs Michigan-16.5L13–1945.5L13–19UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Alabama PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Alabama
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Alabama
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Western Kentucky #66
+0.240
Alabama #44
+0.447
Alabama Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #28
+0.476
Alabama #59
+0.561
Alabama Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #122
0.125
Alabama #41
0.179
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Alabama Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #78
+6.681
Alabama #8
+8.363
Alabama Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Western Kentucky #83
+0.789
Alabama #34
+0.899
Alabama Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Western Kentucky #55
70.3
Alabama #54
70.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Alabama Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Alabama Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Western Kentucky
-5.5
Alabama
17.1
Offense Rating
Western Kentucky
11.9
Alabama
21.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Western Kentucky
17.3
Alabama
4.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Western Kentucky Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Western Kentucky #114
0.00
Alabama #39
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Kentucky #119
0.00
Alabama #16
0.00
Western Kentucky +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Western Kentucky Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Western Kentucky #1
0.0
Alabama #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Kentucky #40
0.0
Alabama #19
0.0
Western Kentucky +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Alabama
5 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Alabama
89.2 — 4.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Alabama won by 63
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Alabama, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
40–26 (61%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Will Friend Yr 1 #1
DC Tyson Summers Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Alabama
Kalen DeBoer #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Nick Sheridan Yr 1 #1
DC Kane Wommack Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself