UTEP at Western Kentucky Week 7 College Football Matchup UTEP at Western Kentucky Matchup - Week 7
Fri, Oct 11 2024 · Week 7 · 🏟 Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium Bowling Green, KY · Turf · 22,113 cap
UTEP✈ 1,195 mi+1 hr TZ
Away
17 44
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
UTEP
16
WKU -19
Western Kentucky
36
P&R Line Western Kentucky -20.5
P&R Total O/U 51.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Western Kentucky -19 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Western Kentucky has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Western Kentucky entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Western Kentucky wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Western Kentucky wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Western Kentucky -19
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Western Kentucky Coming off BYE
UTEP 2024 Schedule
UTEP's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31UTEP at Nebraska+27.5L7–4049.0L7–40UN
Sat 9/7UTEP vs Southern Utah-6.5L24–2754.5L24–27UN
Sat 9/14UTEP at Liberty+23.5L10–2857.5L10–28UY
Sat 9/21UTEP at Colorado State+8.5L17–2749.0L17–27UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/3UTEP vs Sam Houston+10.0L21–4149.5L21–41ON
Thu 10/10UTEP at Western Kentucky+19.0L17–4455.5L17–44ON
Wed 10/16UTEP vs Florida International+7.0W30–2147.0W30–21OY
Tue 10/22UTEP at Louisiana Tech+6.5L10–1449.0L10–14UY
Sat 11/2UTEP vs Middle Tennessee-2.0L13–2048.0L13–20UN
Sat 11/9UTEP vs Kennesaw State-4.5W43–3542.0W43–35OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23UTEP at Tennessee+41.5L0–5654.0L0–56ON
Sat 11/30UTEP at New Mexico State+3.5W42–3551.5W42–35OY
Western Kentucky 2024 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Western Kentucky at Alabama+31.0L0–6360.0L0–63ON
Sat 9/7Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky-18.5W31–059.5W31–0UY
Sat 9/14Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee-10.5W49–2153.5W49–21OY
Sat 9/21Western Kentucky vs Toledo+2.0W26–2160.5W26–21UY
Sat 9/28Western Kentucky at Boston College+7.5L20–2148.0L20–21UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Western Kentucky vs UTEP-19.0W44–1755.5W44–17OY
Wed 10/16Western Kentucky at Sam Houston+1.5W31–1455.0W31–14UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/30Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State-24.0W31–1449.0W31–14UN
Sat 11/9Western Kentucky at New Mexico State-18.0W41–2853.5W41–28ON
Sat 11/16Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech-11.5L7–1252.5L7–12UN
Sat 11/23Western Kentucky at Liberty+1.0L21–3856.5L21–38ON
Sat 11/30Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State+0.5W19–1762.5W19–17UY
Fri 12/6Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State+4.5L12–5258.5L12–52ON
Wed 12/18Western Kentucky vs James Madison+7.5L17–2750.5L17–27UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Western Kentucky PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
UTEP #121
+0.286
Western Kentucky #66
+0.327
Western Kentucky Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
UTEP #108
+0.443
Western Kentucky #28
+0.566
Western Kentucky Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
UTEP #34
0.182
Western Kentucky #122
0.125
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UTEP Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
UTEP #132
+6.470
Western Kentucky #78
+7.687
Western Kentucky Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
UTEP #124
+0.817
Western Kentucky #83
+0.815
UTEP Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
UTEP #113
72.9
Western Kentucky #55
70.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Western Kentucky Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Western Kentucky Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
UTEP
-16.2
Western Kentucky
-5.5
Offense Rating
UTEP
4.4
Western Kentucky
11.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
UTEP
20.6
Western Kentucky
17.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Western Kentucky Edge
Avg sequences created per game
UTEP #130
0.25
Western Kentucky #114
1.25
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
UTEP #130
2.25
Western Kentucky #119
1.25
Western Kentucky +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Western Kentucky Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
UTEP #1
16.9
Western Kentucky #1
53.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
UTEP #120
70.0
Western Kentucky #40
34.1
Western Kentucky +36.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Western Kentucky
5 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Western Kentucky
79.9 — 7.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Western Kentucky won by 27
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Western Kentucky with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
UTEP
Scotty Walden #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jake Brown Yr 1 #1
DC J. J. Clark Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
40–26 (61%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Will Friend Yr 1 #1
DC Tyson Summers Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself