Sat, Nov 16 2024
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Bowling Green, KY
·
Turf
·
22,113 cap
Louisiana Tech✈ 467 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Western Kentucky
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Western Kentucky entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Western Kentucky wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Western Kentucky wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Western Kentucky -11.5
O/U 52.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Louisiana Tech 2024 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Louisiana Tech vs Nicholls | -17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | Louisiana Tech at NC State | +20.5L20–30 | 47.5 | L20–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Louisiana Tech vs Tulsa | -3.0L20–23 | 56.5 | L20–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Louisiana Tech vs Florida International | -2.0L10–17 | 49.0 | L10–17 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/10 | Louisiana Tech vs Middle Tennessee | -5.0W48–21 | 48.0 | W48–21 | O | Y |
| Tue 10/15 | Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State | -12.5L30–33 | 49.0 | L30–33 | O | N |
| Tue 10/22 | Louisiana Tech vs UTEP | -6.5W14–10 | 49.0 | W14–10 | U | N |
| Tue 10/29 | Louisiana Tech at Sam Houston | +10.5L3–9 | 45.5 | L3–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Louisiana Tech vs Jacksonville State | +10.0L37–44 | 55.5 | L37–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky | +11.5W12–7 | 52.5 | W12–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Louisiana Tech at Arkansas | +23.5L14–35 | 48.5 | L14–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Louisiana Tech vs Kennesaw State | -13.5W33–0 | 41.5 | W33–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/28 | Louisiana Tech vs Army | +15.0L6–27 | 44.5 | L6–27 | U | N |
Western Kentucky 2024 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Western Kentucky at Alabama | +31.0L0–63 | 60.0 | L0–63 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky | -18.5W31–0 | 59.5 | W31–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee | -10.5W49–21 | 53.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Western Kentucky vs Toledo | +2.0W26–21 | 60.5 | W26–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Western Kentucky at Boston College | +7.5L20–21 | 48.0 | L20–21 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/10 | Western Kentucky vs UTEP | -19.0W44–17 | 55.5 | W44–17 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/16 | Western Kentucky at Sam Houston | +1.5W31–14 | 55.0 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/30 | Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State | -24.0W31–14 | 49.0 | W31–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Western Kentucky at New Mexico State | -18.0W41–28 | 53.5 | W41–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech | -11.5L7–12 | 52.5 | L7–12 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Western Kentucky at Liberty | +1.0L21–38 | 56.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State | +0.5W19–17 | 62.5 | W19–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/6 | Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State | +4.5L12–52 | 58.5 | L12–52 | O | N |
| Wed 12/18 | Western Kentucky vs James Madison | +7.5L17–27 | 50.5 | L17–27 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Western Kentucky Edge
Western Kentucky +0.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Western Kentucky Edge
Western Kentucky +29.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Western Kentucky with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
6–18 (25%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Scott Parr
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jeremiah Johnson
Yr 1
#1
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
40–26 (61%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Will Friend
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tyson Summers
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓