Sat, Dec 7 2024
·
Week 15
·
🏟 JSU Stadium
Jacksonville, AL
·
Turf
·
24,000 cap
Western Kentucky✈ 222 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Jacksonville State,
while Game Control favors Western Kentucky.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Jacksonville State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Western Kentucky wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Jacksonville State -4.5
O/U 58.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Jacksonville State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Western Kentucky 2024 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Western Kentucky at Alabama | +31.0L0–63 | 60.0 | L0–63 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky | -18.5W31–0 | 59.5 | W31–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee | -10.5W49–21 | 53.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Western Kentucky vs Toledo | +2.0W26–21 | 60.5 | W26–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Western Kentucky at Boston College | +7.5L20–21 | 48.0 | L20–21 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/10 | Western Kentucky vs UTEP | -19.0W44–17 | 55.5 | W44–17 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/16 | Western Kentucky at Sam Houston | +1.5W31–14 | 55.0 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/30 | Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State | -24.0W31–14 | 49.0 | W31–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Western Kentucky at New Mexico State | -18.0W41–28 | 53.5 | W41–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech | -11.5L7–12 | 52.5 | L7–12 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Western Kentucky at Liberty | +1.0L21–38 | 56.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State | +0.5W19–17 | 62.5 | W19–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/6 | Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State | +4.5L12–52 | 58.5 | L12–52 | O | N |
| Wed 12/18 | Western Kentucky vs James Madison | +7.5L17–27 | 50.5 | L17–27 | U | N |
Jacksonville State 2024 Schedule
Jacksonville State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Jacksonville State vs Coastal Carolina | -3.5L27–55 | 54.5 | L27–55 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Jacksonville State at Louisville | +27.5L14–49 | 56.5 | L14–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Jacksonville State at Eastern Michigan | -2.5L34–37 | 53.5 | L34–37 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Jacksonville State vs Southern Miss | -6.0W44–7 | 59.5 | W44–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/4 | Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State | -17.5W63–24 | 49.5 | W63–24 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/9 | Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State | -21.0W54–13 | 58.5 | W54–13 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/23 | Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee | -20.5W42–20 | 64.5 | W42–20 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/30 | Jacksonville State at Liberty | +2.5W31–21 | 64.0 | W31–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Jacksonville State at Louisiana Tech | -10.0W44–37 | 55.5 | W44–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Jacksonville State vs Florida International | -12.5W34–31 | 58.5 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston | -5.5W21–11 | 57.5 | W21–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky | -0.5L17–19 | 62.5 | L17–19 | U | N |
| Fri 12/6 | Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky | -4.5W52–12 | 58.5 | W52–12 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/20 | Jacksonville State vs Ohio | +6.5L27–30 | 57.5 | L27–30 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Jacksonville State Edge
Jacksonville State +0.06
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Western Kentucky Edge
Western Kentucky +6.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Jacksonville State
4 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Jacksonville State
78.3 — 8.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Jacksonville State won by 40
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
40–26 (61%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Will Friend
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tyson Summers
Yr 3
#1
Jacksonville State
Rich Rodriguez #1
18–6 (75%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Rod Smith
Yr 2
#1
DC
Luke Olson
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓