Sat, Sep 7 2024
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Week 2
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🏟 Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Bowling Green, KY
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Turf
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22,113 cap
Eastern Kentucky✈ 129 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Western Kentucky wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Western Kentucky -18.5
O/U 59.5
ESPN Bet
Eastern Kentucky 2024 Schedule
Eastern Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Eastern Kentucky at Mississippi State | +26.5L7–56 | 61.5 | L7–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Eastern Kentucky at Western Kentucky | +18.5L0–31 | 59.5 | L0–31 | U | N |
Western Kentucky 2024 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Western Kentucky at Alabama | +31.0L0–63 | 60.0 | L0–63 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky | -18.5W31–0 | 59.5 | W31–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee | -10.5W49–21 | 53.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Western Kentucky vs Toledo | +2.0W26–21 | 60.5 | W26–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Western Kentucky at Boston College | +7.5L20–21 | 48.0 | L20–21 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/10 | Western Kentucky vs UTEP | -19.0W44–17 | 55.5 | W44–17 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/16 | Western Kentucky at Sam Houston | +1.5W31–14 | 55.0 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/30 | Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State | -24.0W31–14 | 49.0 | W31–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Western Kentucky at New Mexico State | -18.0W41–28 | 53.5 | W41–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech | -11.5L7–12 | 52.5 | L7–12 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Western Kentucky at Liberty | +1.0L21–38 | 56.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State | +0.5W19–17 | 62.5 | W19–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/6 | Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State | +4.5L12–52 | 58.5 | L12–52 | O | N |
| Wed 12/18 | Western Kentucky vs James Madison | +7.5L17–27 | 50.5 | L17–27 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Eastern Kentucky Edge
Eastern Kentucky +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Western Kentucky Edge
Western Kentucky +25.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓