Western Kentucky at Sam Houston Week 8 College Football Matchup Western Kentucky at Sam Houston Matchup - Week 8
Wed, Oct 16 2024 · Week 8 · 🏟 Bowers Stadium Huntsville, TX · Turf · 14,000 cap
Western Kentucky✈ 677 miSame TZ
31 14
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Western Kentucky
25
Sam Houston
26
P&R Line Sam Houston -1
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Sam Houston -1.5 · O/U 55.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Western Kentucky, while Game Control favors Sam Houston. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Western Kentucky wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Sam Houston wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Sam Houston -1.5
O/U 55.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Sam Houston · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Sam Houston Coming off BYE
Western Kentucky 2024 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Western Kentucky at Alabama+31.0L0–6360.0L0–63ON
Sat 9/7Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky-18.5W31–059.5W31–0UY
Sat 9/14Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee-10.5W49–2153.5W49–21OY
Sat 9/21Western Kentucky vs Toledo+2.0W26–2160.5W26–21UY
Sat 9/28Western Kentucky at Boston College+7.5L20–2148.0L20–21UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Western Kentucky vs UTEP-19.0W44–1755.5W44–17OY
Wed 10/16Western Kentucky at Sam Houston+1.5W31–1455.0W31–14UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/30Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State-24.0W31–1449.0W31–14UN
Sat 11/9Western Kentucky at New Mexico State-18.0W41–2853.5W41–28ON
Sat 11/16Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech-11.5L7–1252.5L7–12UN
Sat 11/23Western Kentucky at Liberty+1.0L21–3856.5L21–38ON
Sat 11/30Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State+0.5W19–1762.5W19–17UY
Fri 12/6Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State+4.5L12–5258.5L12–52ON
Wed 12/18Western Kentucky vs James Madison+7.5L17–2750.5L17–27UN
Sam Houston 2024 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Sam Houston at Rice+9.5W34–1449.0W34–14UY
Sat 9/7Sam Houston at UCF+21.5L14–4553.5L14–45ON
Sat 9/14Sam Houston vs Hawai'i-3.5W31–1348.5W31–13UY
Sat 9/21Sam Houston vs New Mexico State-15.5W31–1144.5W31–11UY
Sat 9/28Sam Houston vs Texas State+11.0W40–3955.0W40–39OY
Thu 10/3Sam Houston at UTEP-10.0W41–2149.5W41–21OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/16Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky-1.5L14–3155.0L14–31UN
Tue 10/22Sam Houston vs Florida International-5.0W10–747.0W10–7UN
Tue 10/29Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech-10.5W9–345.5W9–3UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Sam Houston at Kennesaw State-21.0W23–1742.5W23–17UN
Sat 11/23Sam Houston at Jacksonville State+5.5L11–2157.5L11–21UN
Fri 11/29Sam Houston vs Liberty+2.5W20–1847.5W20–18UY
Thu 12/19Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern+3.5W31–2648.0W31–26OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Sam Houston PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Sam Houston
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Western Kentucky #66
+0.304
Sam Houston #115
+0.311
Sam Houston Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #28
+0.413
Sam Houston #114
+0.423
Sam Houston Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #122
0.125
Sam Houston #58
0.167
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Sam Houston Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #78
+7.672
Sam Houston #129
+6.633
Western Kentucky Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Western Kentucky #83
+0.835
Sam Houston #107
+0.840
Sam Houston Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Western Kentucky #55
70.3
Sam Houston #37
69.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Sam Houston Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Western Kentucky Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Western Kentucky
-5.5
Sam Houston
-19.2
Offense Rating
Western Kentucky
11.9
Sam Houston
4.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Western Kentucky
17.3
Sam Houston
23.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Western Kentucky Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Western Kentucky #114
2.00
Sam Houston #35
1.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Kentucky #119
1.00
Sam Houston #25
0.67
Western Kentucky +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Sam Houston Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Western Kentucky #1
57.9
Sam Houston #1
58.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Kentucky #40
29.7
Sam Houston #39
32.6
Sam Houston +0.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
40–26 (61%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Will Friend Yr 1 #1
DC Tyson Summers Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Sam Houston
K. C. Keeler #1
88–36 (71%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Brad Cornelsen Yr 2 #1
DC Skyler Cassity Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself