Western Kentucky at James Madison Week 1 College Football Matchup Western Kentucky at James Madison Matchup - Week 1
Wed, Dec 18 2024 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 FAU Stadium Boca Raton, FL · Turf · 30,000 cap
Western Kentucky✈ 822 mi+1 hr TZ James Madison✈ 836 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
17 27
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Western Kentucky
22
WKU +7.5
James Madison
29
P&R Line James Madison -6.5
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas James Madison -7.5 · O/U 50.5
Matchup Prediction
James Madison has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor James Madison entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
James Madison wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
James Madison wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
James Madison -7.5
O/U 50.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → James Madison · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 James Madison 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Western Kentucky 2nd straight Road Game
Western Kentucky 2024 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Western Kentucky at Alabama+31.0L0–6360.0L0–63ON
Sat 9/7Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky-18.5W31–059.5W31–0UY
Sat 9/14Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee-10.5W49–2153.5W49–21OY
Sat 9/21Western Kentucky vs Toledo+2.0W26–2160.5W26–21UY
Sat 9/28Western Kentucky at Boston College+7.5L20–2148.0L20–21UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Western Kentucky vs UTEP-19.0W44–1755.5W44–17OY
Wed 10/16Western Kentucky at Sam Houston+1.5W31–1455.0W31–14UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/30Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State-24.0W31–1449.0W31–14UN
Sat 11/9Western Kentucky at New Mexico State-18.0W41–2853.5W41–28ON
Sat 11/16Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech-11.5L7–1252.5L7–12UN
Sat 11/23Western Kentucky at Liberty+1.0L21–3856.5L21–38ON
Sat 11/30Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State+0.5W19–1762.5W19–17UY
Fri 12/6Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State+4.5L12–5258.5L12–52ON
Wed 12/18Western Kentucky vs James Madison+7.5L17–2750.5L17–27UN
James Madison 2024 Schedule
James Madison's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31James Madison at Charlotte-6.5W30–747.5W30–7UY
Sat 9/7James Madison vs Gardner-Webb-35.5W13–650.5W13–6UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21James Madison at North Carolina+10.0W70–5048.0W70–50OY
Sat 9/28James Madison vs Ball State-22.0W63–756.5W63–7OY
Sat 10/5James Madison at UL Monroe-16.5L19–2148.5L19–21UN
Thu 10/10James Madison vs Coastal Carolina-7.0W39–759.0W39–7UY
Sat 10/19James Madison at Georgia Southern-9.5L14–2858.5L14–28UN
Sat 10/26James Madison vs Southern Miss-24.0W32–1554.0W32–15UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9James Madison vs Georgia State-14.5W38–753.5W38–7UY
Sat 11/16James Madison at Old Dominion-1.5W35–3251.0W35–32OY
Sat 11/23James Madison at App State-7.5L20–3457.5L20–34UN
Sat 11/30James Madison vs Marshall-2.5L33–3552.5L33–35ON
Wed 12/18James Madison vs Western Kentucky-7.5W27–1750.5W27–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
James Madison PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ James Madison
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ James Madison
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Western Kentucky #66
+0.219
James Madison #88
+0.371
James Madison Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #28
+0.429
James Madison #99
+0.473
James Madison Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #122
0.125
James Madison #8
0.204
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
James Madison Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #78
+7.477
James Madison #66
+7.588
James Madison Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Western Kentucky #83
+0.757
James Madison #61
+0.883
James Madison Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Western Kentucky #55
70.3
James Madison #10
67.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
James Madison Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
James Madison Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Western Kentucky
-5.5
James Madison
-1.2
Offense Rating
Western Kentucky
11.9
James Madison
13.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Western Kentucky
17.3
James Madison
15.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? James Madison Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Western Kentucky #114
1.17
James Madison #33
1.18
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Kentucky #119
1.17
James Madison #14
0.55
James Madison +0.02
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? James Madison Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Western Kentucky #1
52.9
James Madison #1
60.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Kentucky #40
31.5
James Madison #10
22.1
James Madison +7.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
James Madison
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
James Madison
40.3 — 24.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
James Madison won by 10
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on James Madison. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
40–26 (61%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Will Friend Yr 1 #1
DC Tyson Summers Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
James Madison
Bob Chesney #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Dean Kennedy Yr 1 #1
DC Lyle Hemphill Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself