Western Kentucky at New Mexico State Week 11 College Football Matchup Western Kentucky at New Mexico State Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 9 2024 · Week 11 · 🏟 Aggie Memorial Stadium Las Cruces, NM · Turf · 30,343 cap
Western Kentucky✈ 1,195 mi-1 hr TZ
41 28
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Western Kentucky
35
NMSU +18
New Mexico State
21
P&R Line Western Kentucky -14
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Western Kentucky -18.0 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Western Kentucky has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Western Kentucky entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Western Kentucky wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Western Kentucky wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Western Kentucky -18.0
O/U 53.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Western Kentucky · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Western Kentucky 2024 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Western Kentucky at Alabama+31.0L0–6360.0L0–63ON
Sat 9/7Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky-18.5W31–059.5W31–0UY
Sat 9/14Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee-10.5W49–2153.5W49–21OY
Sat 9/21Western Kentucky vs Toledo+2.0W26–2160.5W26–21UY
Sat 9/28Western Kentucky at Boston College+7.5L20–2148.0L20–21UY
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Western Kentucky vs UTEP-19.0W44–1755.5W44–17OY
Wed 10/16Western Kentucky at Sam Houston+1.5W31–1455.0W31–14UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/30Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State-24.0W31–1449.0W31–14UN
Sat 11/9Western Kentucky at New Mexico State-18.0W41–2853.5W41–28ON
Sat 11/16Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech-11.5L7–1252.5L7–12UN
Sat 11/23Western Kentucky at Liberty+1.0L21–3856.5L21–38ON
Sat 11/30Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State+0.5W19–1762.5W19–17UY
Fri 12/6Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State+4.5L12–5258.5L12–52ON
Wed 12/18Western Kentucky vs James Madison+7.5L17–2750.5L17–27UN
New Mexico State 2024 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31New Mexico State vs Southeast Missouri State-9.5W23–1652.5W23–16UN
Sat 9/7New Mexico State vs Liberty+22.5L24–3054.5L24–30UY
Sat 9/14New Mexico State at Fresno State+19.5L0–4848.5L0–48UN
Sat 9/21New Mexico State at Sam Houston+15.5L11–3144.5L11–31UN
Sat 9/28New Mexico State vs New Mexico+9.5L40–5054.0L40–50ON
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/9New Mexico State at Jacksonville State+21.0L13–5458.5L13–54ON
Tue 10/15New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech+12.5W33–3049.0W33–30OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/29New Mexico State vs Florida International+7.0L13–3443.5L13–34ON
Sat 11/9New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky+18.0L28–4153.5L28–41OY
Sat 11/16New Mexico State at Texas A&M+38.5L3–3854.5L3–38UY
Sat 11/23New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee+3.5W36–2154.0W36–21OY
Sat 11/30New Mexico State vs UTEP-3.5L35–4251.5L35–42ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Western Kentucky PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Western Kentucky
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Western Kentucky #66
+0.453
New Mexico State #119
+0.290
Western Kentucky Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #28
+0.719
New Mexico State #128
+0.339
Western Kentucky Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #122
0.125
New Mexico State #128
0.123
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Western Kentucky Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Western Kentucky #78
+7.537
New Mexico State #82
+7.458
Western Kentucky Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Western Kentucky #83
+0.830
New Mexico State #106
+0.841
New Mexico State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Western Kentucky #55
70.3
New Mexico State #118
73.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Western Kentucky Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Western Kentucky Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Western Kentucky
-5.5
New Mexico State
-14.8
Offense Rating
Western Kentucky
11.9
New Mexico State
6.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Western Kentucky
17.3
New Mexico State
21.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Western Kentucky Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Western Kentucky #114
1.86
New Mexico State #117
0.14
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Kentucky #119
0.71
New Mexico State #123
2.43
Western Kentucky +1.71
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Western Kentucky Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Western Kentucky #1
62.0
New Mexico State #1
21.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Western Kentucky #40
25.3
New Mexico State #122
56.0
Western Kentucky +40.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Western Kentucky
5.5 — 92.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Western Kentucky won by 13
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Western Kentucky with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
40–26 (61%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Will Friend Yr 1 #1
DC Tyson Summers Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
New Mexico State
Tony Sanchez #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Tyler Wright Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Morris Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself