Texas A&M at Mississippi State Week 8 College Football Matchup Texas A&M at Mississippi State Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 19 2024 · Week 8 · 🏟 Davis Wade Stadium Starkville, MS · Turf · 61,337 cap
Texas A&M✈ 483 miSame TZ
34 24
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas A&M
39
Mississippi State
20
P&R Line Texas A&M -19
P&R Total O/U 58
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas A&M -21 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas A&M has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas A&M entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Texas A&M wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Texas A&M wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Texas A&M -21
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas A&M · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Texas A&M Coming off BYE
Texas A&M 2024 Schedule
Texas A&M's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Texas A&M vs Notre Dame-3.0L13–2347.0L13–23UN
Sat 9/7Texas A&M vs McNeese-48.5W52–1056.5W52–10ON
Sat 9/14Texas A&M at Florida-4.5W33–2047.0W33–20OY
Sat 9/21Texas A&M vs Bowling Green-21.0W26–2050.5W26–20UN
Sat 9/28Texas A&M vs Arkansas-6.5W21–1750.5W21–17UN
Sat 10/5Texas A&M vs Missouri-3.0W41–1047.5W41–10OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Texas A&M at Mississippi State-21.0W34–2455.5W34–24ON
Sat 10/26Texas A&M vs LSU-2.0W38–2354.5W38–23OY
Sat 11/2Texas A&M at South Carolina-3.0L20–4443.5L20–44ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Texas A&M vs New Mexico State-38.5W38–354.5W38–3UN
Sat 11/23Texas A&M at Auburn-2.5L41–4347.0L41–43ON
Sat 11/30Texas A&M vs Texas+4.5L7–1749.5L7–17UN
Fri 12/27Texas A&M vs USC-3.5L31–3556.5L31–35ON
Mississippi State 2024 Schedule
Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky-26.5W56–761.5W56–7OY
Sat 9/7Mississippi State at Arizona State+6.5L23–3057.5L23–30UN
Sat 9/14Mississippi State vs Toledo-10.5L17–4156.5L17–41ON
Sat 9/21Mississippi State vs Florida+6.5L28–4558.0L28–45ON
Sat 9/28Mississippi State at Texas+37.0L13–3558.5L13–35UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Mississippi State at Georgia+34.0L31–4153.5L31–41OY
Sat 10/19Mississippi State vs Texas A&M+21.0L24–3455.5L24–34OY
Sat 10/26Mississippi State vs Arkansas+7.5L25–5855.0L25–58ON
Sat 11/2Mississippi State vs Massachusetts-19.5W45–2059.5W45–20OY
Sat 11/9Mississippi State at Tennessee+26.5L14–3361.5L14–33UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Mississippi State vs Missouri+9.5L20–3958.0L20–39ON
Fri 11/29Mississippi State at Ole Miss+26.5L14–2663.5L14–26UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Texas A&M PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas A&M
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas A&M
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas A&M
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas A&M #54
+0.536
Mississippi State #78
+0.333
Texas A&M Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas A&M #70
+0.828
Mississippi State #76
+0.467
Texas A&M Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas A&M #17
0.196
Mississippi State #134
0.111
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas A&M Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas A&M #93
+7.950
Mississippi State #86
+6.779
Texas A&M Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas A&M #41
+0.952
Mississippi State #109
+0.773
Texas A&M Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas A&M #2
61.4
Mississippi State #90
71.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas A&M Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas A&M Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas A&M
14.3
Mississippi State
-2.1
Offense Rating
Texas A&M
22.5
Mississippi State
14.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas A&M
8.1
Mississippi State
16.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas A&M Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas A&M #16
1.60
Mississippi State #93
0.60
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas A&M #62
0.40
Mississippi State #109
2.00
Texas A&M +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas A&M Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas A&M #1
65.4
Mississippi State #1
22.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas A&M #42
16.1
Mississippi State #135
67.9
Texas A&M +42.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas A&M with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas A&M
Mike Elko #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Collin Klein Yr 1 #1
DC Jay Bateman Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Mississippi State
Jeff Lebby #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jeff Lebby Yr 1 #1
DC Matt Barnes Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself