Mississippi State at Tennessee Week 11 College Football Matchup Mississippi State at Tennessee Matchup - Week 11
Sun, Nov 10 2024 · Week 11 · 🏟 Neyland Stadium Knoxville, TN · Turf · 102,455 cap
Mississippi State✈ 325 mi+1 hr TZ
14 33
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Mississippi State
15
TENN -26.5
Tennessee
43
P&R Line Tennessee -28
P&R Total O/U 58
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Tennessee -26.5 · O/U 61.5
Matchup Prediction
Tennessee has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Tennessee entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Tennessee wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Tennessee wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Tennessee -26.5
O/U 61.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Tennessee · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Tennessee 4th straight Home Game
Mississippi State 2024 Schedule
Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky-26.5W56–761.5W56–7OY
Sat 9/7Mississippi State at Arizona State+6.5L23–3057.5L23–30UN
Sat 9/14Mississippi State vs Toledo-10.5L17–4156.5L17–41ON
Sat 9/21Mississippi State vs Florida+6.5L28–4558.0L28–45ON
Sat 9/28Mississippi State at Texas+37.0L13–3558.5L13–35UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Mississippi State at Georgia+34.0L31–4153.5L31–41OY
Sat 10/19Mississippi State vs Texas A&M+21.0L24–3455.5L24–34OY
Sat 10/26Mississippi State vs Arkansas+7.5L25–5855.0L25–58ON
Sat 11/2Mississippi State vs Massachusetts-19.5W45–2059.5W45–20OY
Sat 11/9Mississippi State at Tennessee+26.5L14–3361.5L14–33UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Mississippi State vs Missouri+9.5L20–3958.0L20–39ON
Fri 11/29Mississippi State at Ole Miss+26.5L14–2663.5L14–26UY
Tennessee 2024 Schedule
Tennessee's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Tennessee vs Chattanooga-38.5W69–356.5W69–3OY
Sat 9/7Tennessee vs NC State-10.0W51–1060.5W51–10OY
Sat 9/14Tennessee vs Kent State-49.5W71–061.5W71–0OY
Sat 9/21Tennessee at Oklahoma-6.0W25–1557.0W25–15UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Tennessee at Arkansas-14.0L14–1957.5L14–19UN
Sat 10/12Tennessee vs Florida-13.5W23–1754.5W23–17UN
Sat 10/19Tennessee vs Alabama+3.5W24–1757.5W24–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Tennessee vs Kentucky-17.5W28–1845.5W28–18ON
Sat 11/9Tennessee vs Mississippi State-26.5W33–1461.5W33–14UN
Sat 11/16Tennessee at Georgia+8.5L17–3147.0L17–31ON
Sat 11/23Tennessee vs UTEP-41.5W56–054.0W56–0OY
Sat 11/30Tennessee at Vanderbilt-9.5W36–2345.5W36–23OY
Sat 12/21Tennessee at Ohio State+7.5L17–4247.0L17–42ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Tennessee PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Tennessee
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Tennessee
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tennessee
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Mississippi State #78
+0.239
Tennessee #46
+0.551
Tennessee Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Mississippi State #76
+0.401
Tennessee #51
+0.867
Tennessee Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Mississippi State #134
0.111
Tennessee #5
0.207
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Tennessee Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Mississippi State #86
+6.782
Tennessee #55
+8.338
Tennessee Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Mississippi State #109
+0.768
Tennessee #18
+0.979
Tennessee Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Mississippi State #90
71.9
Tennessee #15
68.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Tennessee Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Tennessee Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Mississippi State
-2.1
Tennessee
13.5
Offense Rating
Mississippi State
14.2
Tennessee
22.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Mississippi State
16.3
Tennessee
8.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Tennessee Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Mississippi State #93
1.00
Tennessee #49
2.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Mississippi State #109
2.38
Tennessee #60
0.14
Tennessee +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Tennessee Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Mississippi State #1
24.3
Tennessee #1
56.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Mississippi State #135
64.7
Tennessee #29
24.2
Tennessee +32.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tennessee
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Tennessee
71.5 — 13.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Tennessee won by 19
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Tennessee with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Mississippi State
Jeff Lebby #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jeff Lebby Yr 1 #1
DC Matt Barnes Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Tennessee
Josh Heupel #1
27–12 (69%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Joey Halzle Yr 2 #1
DC Tim Banks Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself