Sat, Oct 26 2024
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Davis Wade Stadium
Starkville, MS
·
Turf
·
61,337 cap
Arkansas✈ 354 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Arkansas
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Arkansas entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Arkansas wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Arkansas wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Arkansas -7.5
O/U 55.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Arkansas
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas 2024 Schedule
Arkansas's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Arkansas vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff | -50.5W70–0 | 60.5 | W70–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Arkansas at Oklahoma State | +10.5L31–39 | 60.5 | L31–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Arkansas vs UAB | -23.5W37–27 | 60.5 | W37–27 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Arkansas at Auburn | +2.5W24–14 | 53.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Arkansas vs Texas A&M | +6.5L17–21 | 50.5 | L17–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Arkansas vs Tennessee | +14.0W19–14 | 57.5 | W19–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Arkansas vs LSU | +3.0L10–34 | 57.0 | L10–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Arkansas at Mississippi State | -7.5W58–25 | 55.0 | W58–25 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Arkansas vs Ole Miss | +8.0L31–63 | 54.0 | L31–63 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Arkansas vs Texas | +13.0L10–20 | 57.5 | L10–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Arkansas vs Louisiana Tech | -23.5W35–14 | 48.5 | W35–14 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Arkansas at Missouri | +3.5L21–28 | 51.5 | L21–28 | U | N |
| Fri 12/27 | Arkansas vs Texas Tech | +3.5W39–26 | 52.5 | W39–26 | O | Y |
Mississippi State 2024 Schedule
Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky | -26.5W56–7 | 61.5 | W56–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Mississippi State at Arizona State | +6.5L23–30 | 57.5 | L23–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Mississippi State vs Toledo | -10.5L17–41 | 56.5 | L17–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Mississippi State vs Florida | +6.5L28–45 | 58.0 | L28–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Mississippi State at Texas | +37.0L13–35 | 58.5 | L13–35 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Mississippi State at Georgia | +34.0L31–41 | 53.5 | L31–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Mississippi State vs Texas A&M | +21.0L24–34 | 55.5 | L24–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Mississippi State vs Arkansas | +7.5L25–58 | 55.0 | L25–58 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Mississippi State vs Massachusetts | -19.5W45–20 | 59.5 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Mississippi State at Tennessee | +26.5L14–33 | 61.5 | L14–33 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Mississippi State vs Missouri | +9.5L20–39 | 58.0 | L20–39 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Mississippi State at Ole Miss | +26.5L14–26 | 63.5 | L14–26 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Arkansas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Arkansas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arkansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas Edge
Arkansas +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arkansas Edge
Arkansas +27.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arkansas
1 — 6 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Arkansas
6.3 — 86.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Arkansas won by 33
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Arkansas with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arkansas
Sam Pittman #1
23–25 (48%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Bobby Petrino
Yr 1
#1
DC
Travis Williams
Yr 2
#1
Mississippi State
Jeff Lebby #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jeff Lebby
Yr 1
#1
DC
Matt Barnes
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓