Sat, Nov 2 2024
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Davis Wade Stadium
Starkville, MS
·
Turf
·
61,337 cap
Massachusetts✈ 1,076 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Mississippi State,
while Game Control favors Massachusetts.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Mississippi State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Massachusetts wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Mississippi State -19.5
O/U 59.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Massachusetts
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Massachusetts 2024 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan | -2.5L14–28 | 49.0 | L14–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Massachusetts at Toledo | +17.5L23–38 | 50.5 | L23–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Massachusetts at Buffalo | +3.5L3–34 | 45.5 | L3–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Massachusetts vs Central Connecticut | -19.5W35–31 | 52.0 | W35–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Massachusetts at Miami (OH) | +15.5L20–23 | 44.5 | L20–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Massachusetts at Northern Illinois | +14.0L20–34 | 41.0 | L20–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Massachusetts vs Missouri | +27.0L3–45 | 54.0 | L3–45 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Massachusetts vs Wagner | -23.0W35–7 | 48.0 | W35–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Massachusetts at Mississippi State | +19.5L20–45 | 59.5 | L20–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Massachusetts vs Liberty | +17.0L34–35 | 53.0 | L34–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Massachusetts at Georgia | +42.5L21–59 | 55.5 | L21–59 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Massachusetts vs UConn | +9.5L42–47 | 49.5 | L42–47 | O | Y |
Mississippi State 2024 Schedule
Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky | -26.5W56–7 | 61.5 | W56–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Mississippi State at Arizona State | +6.5L23–30 | 57.5 | L23–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Mississippi State vs Toledo | -10.5L17–41 | 56.5 | L17–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Mississippi State vs Florida | +6.5L28–45 | 58.0 | L28–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Mississippi State at Texas | +37.0L13–35 | 58.5 | L13–35 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Mississippi State at Georgia | +34.0L31–41 | 53.5 | L31–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Mississippi State vs Texas A&M | +21.0L24–34 | 55.5 | L24–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Mississippi State vs Arkansas | +7.5L25–58 | 55.0 | L25–58 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Mississippi State vs Massachusetts | -19.5W45–20 | 59.5 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Mississippi State at Tennessee | +26.5L14–33 | 61.5 | L14–33 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Mississippi State vs Missouri | +9.5L20–39 | 58.0 | L20–39 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Mississippi State at Ole Miss | +26.5L14–26 | 63.5 | L14–26 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Massachusetts
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Mississippi State Edge
Mississippi State +0.07
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Massachusetts Edge
Massachusetts +7.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Mississippi State
4 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Mississippi State
60.7 — 20.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Mississippi State won by 25
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Massachusetts
Don Brown #1
4–20 (17%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Shane Montgomery
Yr 1
#1
DC
Keith Dudzinski
Yr 3
#1
Mississippi State
Jeff Lebby #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jeff Lebby
Yr 1
#1
DC
Matt Barnes
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓