Missouri at Mississippi State Week 13 College Football Matchup Missouri at Mississippi State Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 23 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Davis Wade Stadium Starkville, MS · Turf · 61,337 cap
Missouri✈ 426 miSame TZ
Away
39 20
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Missouri
38
Mississippi State
20
P&R Line Missouri -17.5
P&R Total O/U 57.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Missouri -9.5 · O/U 58.0
Matchup Prediction
Missouri has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Missouri entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Missouri wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Missouri wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Missouri -9.5
O/U 58.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Missouri · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Mississippi State Coming off BYE 🚌 Missouri 2nd straight Road Game
Missouri 2024 Schedule
Missouri's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Missouri vs Murray State-50.5W51–062.5W51–0UY
Sat 9/7Missouri vs Buffalo-34.5W38–053.5W38–0UY
Sat 9/14Missouri vs Boston College-14.5W27–2151.5W27–21UN
Sat 9/21Missouri vs Vanderbilt-17.5W30–2752.0W30–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Missouri at Texas A&M+3.0L10–4147.5L10–41ON
Sat 10/12Missouri at Massachusetts-27.0W45–354.0W45–3UY
Sat 10/19Missouri vs Auburn-3.5W21–1749.5W21–17UY
Sat 10/26Missouri at Alabama+16.0L0–3451.5L0–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Missouri vs Oklahoma+3.5W30–2341.5W30–23OY
Sat 11/16Missouri at South Carolina+10.5L30–3442.5L30–34OY
Sat 11/23Missouri at Mississippi State-9.5W39–2058.0W39–20OY
Sat 11/30Missouri vs Arkansas-3.5W28–2151.5W28–21UY
Mon 12/30Missouri vs Iowa-1.0W27–2441.0W27–24OY
Mississippi State 2024 Schedule
Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky-26.5W56–761.5W56–7OY
Sat 9/7Mississippi State at Arizona State+6.5L23–3057.5L23–30UN
Sat 9/14Mississippi State vs Toledo-10.5L17–4156.5L17–41ON
Sat 9/21Mississippi State vs Florida+6.5L28–4558.0L28–45ON
Sat 9/28Mississippi State at Texas+37.0L13–3558.5L13–35UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Mississippi State at Georgia+34.0L31–4153.5L31–41OY
Sat 10/19Mississippi State vs Texas A&M+21.0L24–3455.5L24–34OY
Sat 10/26Mississippi State vs Arkansas+7.5L25–5855.0L25–58ON
Sat 11/2Mississippi State vs Massachusetts-19.5W45–2059.5W45–20OY
Sat 11/9Mississippi State at Tennessee+26.5L14–3361.5L14–33UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Mississippi State vs Missouri+9.5L20–3958.0L20–39ON
Fri 11/29Mississippi State at Ole Miss+26.5L14–2663.5L14–26UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Missouri PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Missouri
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Missouri
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Missouri
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Missouri #70
+0.511
Mississippi State #78
+0.281
Missouri Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Missouri #66
+0.839
Mississippi State #76
+0.472
Missouri Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Missouri #32
0.183
Mississippi State #134
0.111
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Missouri Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Missouri #68
+8.232
Mississippi State #86
+7.129
Missouri Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Missouri #54
+0.945
Mississippi State #109
+0.799
Missouri Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Missouri #28
69.0
Mississippi State #90
71.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Missouri Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Missouri Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Missouri
12.2
Mississippi State
-2.1
Offense Rating
Missouri
20.9
Mississippi State
14.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Missouri
8.7
Mississippi State
16.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Missouri Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Missouri #30
1.33
Mississippi State #93
0.89
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Missouri #54
1.00
Mississippi State #109
2.33
Missouri +0.44
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Missouri Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Missouri #1
45.5
Mississippi State #1
23.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Missouri #60
36.6
Mississippi State #135
65.3
Missouri +22.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Missouri with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Missouri
Eliah Drinkwitz #1
28–21 (57%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Kirby Moore Yr 2 #1
DC Corey Batoon Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Mississippi State
Jeff Lebby #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jeff Lebby Yr 1 #1
DC Matt Barnes Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself