Sat, Aug 31 2024
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Davis Wade Stadium
Starkville, MS
·
Turf
·
61,337 cap
Eastern Kentucky✈ 388 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Mississippi State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Mississippi State -26.5
O/U 61.5
ESPN Bet
Eastern Kentucky 2024 Schedule
Eastern Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Eastern Kentucky at Mississippi State | +26.5L7–56 | 61.5 | L7–56 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Eastern Kentucky at Western Kentucky | +18.5L0–31 | 59.5 | L0–31 | U | N |
Mississippi State 2024 Schedule
Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky | -26.5W56–7 | 61.5 | W56–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Mississippi State at Arizona State | +6.5L23–30 | 57.5 | L23–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Mississippi State vs Toledo | -10.5L17–41 | 56.5 | L17–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Mississippi State vs Florida | +6.5L28–45 | 58.0 | L28–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Mississippi State at Texas | +37.0L13–35 | 58.5 | L13–35 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Mississippi State at Georgia | +34.0L31–41 | 53.5 | L31–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Mississippi State vs Texas A&M | +21.0L24–34 | 55.5 | L24–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Mississippi State vs Arkansas | +7.5L25–58 | 55.0 | L25–58 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Mississippi State vs Massachusetts | -19.5W45–20 | 59.5 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Mississippi State at Tennessee | +26.5L14–33 | 61.5 | L14–33 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Mississippi State vs Missouri | +9.5L20–39 | 58.0 | L20–39 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Mississippi State at Ole Miss | +26.5L14–26 | 63.5 | L14–26 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Eastern Kentucky Edge
Eastern Kentucky +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Mississippi State Edge
Mississippi State +10.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓