Florida at Mississippi State Week 4 College Football Matchup Florida at Mississippi State Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 21 2024 · Week 4 · 🏟 Davis Wade Stadium Starkville, MS · Turf · 61,337 cap
Florida✈ 461 mi-1 hr TZ
Away
45 28
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Florida
38
FLA -6.5
Mississippi State
20
P&R Line Florida -18
P&R Total O/U 57
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Florida -6.5 · O/U 58.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Mississippi State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Florida -6.5
O/U 58.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Florida · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Mississippi State 2nd straight Home Game
Florida 2024 Schedule
Florida's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Florida vs Miami+2.5L17–4154.5L17–41ON
Sat 9/7Florida vs Samford-38.5W45–755.5W45–7UN
Sat 9/14Florida vs Texas A&M+4.5L20–3347.0L20–33ON
Sat 9/21Florida at Mississippi State-6.5W45–2858.0W45–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Florida vs UCF+1.0W24–1362.0W24–13UY
Sat 10/12Florida at Tennessee+13.5L17–2354.5L17–23UY
Sat 10/19Florida vs Kentucky+2.5W48–2042.5W48–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Florida vs Georgia+14.5L20–3452.5L20–34OY
Sat 11/9Florida at Texas+24.5L17–4948.5L17–49ON
Sat 11/16Florida vs LSU+3.0W27–1657.0W27–16UY
Sat 11/23Florida vs Ole Miss+13.0W24–1757.5W24–17UY
Sat 11/30Florida at Florida State-17.5W31–1145.5W31–11UY
Fri 12/20Florida vs Tulane-10.0W33–850.5W33–8UY
Mississippi State 2024 Schedule
Mississippi State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Mississippi State vs Eastern Kentucky-26.5W56–761.5W56–7OY
Sat 9/7Mississippi State at Arizona State+6.5L23–3057.5L23–30UN
Sat 9/14Mississippi State vs Toledo-10.5L17–4156.5L17–41ON
Sat 9/21Mississippi State vs Florida+6.5L28–4558.0L28–45ON
Sat 9/28Mississippi State at Texas+37.0L13–3558.5L13–35UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Mississippi State at Georgia+34.0L31–4153.5L31–41OY
Sat 10/19Mississippi State vs Texas A&M+21.0L24–3455.5L24–34OY
Sat 10/26Mississippi State vs Arkansas+7.5L25–5855.0L25–58ON
Sat 11/2Mississippi State vs Massachusetts-19.5W45–2059.5W45–20OY
Sat 11/9Mississippi State at Tennessee+26.5L14–3361.5L14–33UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Mississippi State vs Missouri+9.5L20–3958.0L20–39ON
Fri 11/29Mississippi State at Ole Miss+26.5L14–2663.5L14–26UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Florida PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Florida
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Florida #72
+0.508
Mississippi State #78
+0.311
Florida Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Florida #73
+0.826
Mississippi State #76
+0.404
Florida Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Florida #36
0.181
Mississippi State #134
0.111
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Florida Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Florida #46
+8.491
Mississippi State #86
+6.872
Florida Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Florida #64
+0.934
Mississippi State #109
+0.831
Florida Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Florida #46
69.8
Mississippi State #90
71.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Florida Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Florida Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Florida
10.5
Mississippi State
-2.1
Offense Rating
Florida
19.1
Mississippi State
14.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Florida
8.5
Mississippi State
16.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Florida #66
0.50
Mississippi State #93
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida #77
2.50
Mississippi State #109
1.50
Florida +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Mississippi State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Florida #1
32.0
Mississippi State #1
36.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida #37
58.6
Mississippi State #135
59.7
Mississippi State +4.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Mississippi State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Florida
Billy Napier #1
11–14 (44%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Rob Sale Yr 3 #1
DC Austin Armstrong Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Mississippi State
Jeff Lebby #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jeff Lebby Yr 1 #1
DC Matt Barnes Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself