Utah State at Boise State - 2026 Matchup Preview
Utah State logo   Utah State Aggies at Boise State Broncos  Boise State logo
Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID  (Pac-12)

 
Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (6 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (25 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#56)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
BSU is playing their 5th straight game
USU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -12.5  (SP+ BSU -6)
Projected Score: USU: 24 - BSU: 36 (60)
BSU Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
USU Travel: 257 miles
Broncos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (24 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (41 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 3.5 (#33)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Utah State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Utah State vs Idaho State-16
Sat 9/12 Utah State at Washington+30.5
Sat 9/19 Utah State at Utah+26.5
Sat 9/26 Utah State vs Troy-3
Sat 10/3 Utah State at Boise State+12.5
Fri 10/9 Utah State vs Washington State+4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24 Utah State at Texas State+10
Sat 10/31 Utah State vs Colorado State-8
Sat 11/7 Utah State vs Fresno State+0.5
Sat 11/14 Utah State at San Diego State+10.5
Sat 11/21 Utah State at Oregon State-5
Sat 11/28 Utah State vs TBD-16

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Utah State's Schedule
Boise State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Boise State at Oregon+26.5
Sat 9/12 Boise State vs Memphis-4
Sat 9/19 Boise State vs South Dakota-26.5
Sat 9/26 Boise State at Western Michigan-5.5
Sat 10/3 Boise State vs Utah State-12.5
Sat 10/10 Boise State at Fresno State-4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24 Boise State at Washington State-1
Sat 10/31 Boise State vs Texas State-5
Sat 11/7 Boise State at Colorado State-13.5
Sat 11/14 Boise State vs Oregon State-20.5
Fri 11/20 Boise State vs San Diego State-5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU#47 (.2)41% (91)30.942% (89)2.87 (81)16341% (85)2474.49 (16)#112 (.22)43% (91)28.745% (99)42% (70)3.77 (76)60.20.81.3
BSU#44 (.2)42% (77)29.943% (80)3.11 (39)17941% (83)2453.66 (73)#53 (.12)36% (14)24.141% (50)33% (6)4.14 (111)59.41.51.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Offense1330.925.240.9%4.490.8214101632474.847%52%42%41%16%.2
BSU Defense1424.122.336.5%4.141.6 - - - - - 52%46%41%33%17%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USU Defense1328.73743.4%3.771.3 - - - - - 47%52%45%42%13%.22
BSU Offense1429.941.341.8%3.661.5224241792454.651%47%43%41%14%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Utah State1327:1420.635%54%7.660.20.81.34.92.2128.2
Boise State1432:5022.146%51%6.959.41.51.662330.6
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Offense1347% (95)42% (89)34.2162.94.825 (40).19 (31)2.87 (81)71% (75)11% (119)1.16 (9)
BSU Defense1452% (93)41% (50) - - - - .2 (120)2.98 (88)67% (39)11% (28)1.22 (134)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USU Defense1347% (28)45% (99) - - - - .21 (124)3.18 (116)70% (61)7% (127)1.04 (105)
BSU Offense1451% (51)43% (80)39.3179.44.629 (30).16 (46)3.11 (39)79% (22)8% (33)1 (55)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Offense1352% (45)41% (85)18.631246.9813.326 (14)5 (7).24 (70)1.5 (67)33% (98)31% (56).36 (47)5% (28)2.1 (60)
BSU Defense1446% (45)33% (6) - - - - - - 14 (22).08 (7)1.7 (116)37% (4)28% (49).22 (33)6% (81)2.1 (87)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USU Defense1352% (111)42% (70) - - - - - - 13 (38).24 (62)1.5 (24)29% (112)33% (114).37 (107)6% (57)1.9 (26)
BSU Offense1447% (83)41% (83)19.633.7244.97.312.523 (22)14 (88).27 (62)1.6 (43)33% (91)31% (58).28 (74)6% (65)1.8 (124)

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -11.69  #110
Utah State's Offense Rating: 7.36  #89
Utah State's Defense Rating: 24.05  #123
2026 Talent Rating: 546.00  #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #99
Utah State's 2026 Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6
Utah State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.1  #79
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5  #53
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2  #98

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -11.69   Boise State: 5.285

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah State: -3.1   Boise State: 3.1




Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 5.285  #59
Boise State's Offense Rating: 13.36  #54
Boise State's Defense Rating: 15.89  #62
2026 Talent Rating: 702.00  #74
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #99
Boise State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.5 - 3.5
Boise State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.1  #64
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.1  #55
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.1  #60

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17


Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.2
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 37

Utah State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 36
Utah State 24

Projected Total Points: 60
Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.3
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Boise State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/28Utah State24Boise State25Boise State -1.5Utah State54.5Under
202410/05Boise State62Utah State30Boise State -28Boise State66.5Over
202311/18Utah State10Boise State45Boise State -5.5Boise State62.5Under
202211/25Boise State42Utah State23Boise State -17Boise State51.5Over
202109/25Utah State3Boise State27Boise State -9.5Boise State69.5Under
202010/24Boise State42Utah State13Boise State -17Boise State51.0Over
201911/23Utah State21Boise State56Boise State -9.5Boise State53.0Over
201811/24Boise State33Utah State24Boise State -2.5Boise State65.0Under
201710/28Utah State14Boise State41Boise State -13Boise State51.5Over
201610/01Boise State21Utah State10Boise State -19.5Utah State60.5Under
201510/16Utah State52Boise State26Boise State -8.5Utah State50.5Over
201411/29Boise State50Utah State19Boise State -9Boise State0
201310/12Utah State23Boise State34Boise State -7.5Boise State0
201012/04Boise State50Utah State14
200911/20Utah State21Boise State52
200811/08Boise State49Utah State14
200711/10Utah State0Boise State52
200611/18Boise State49Utah State10
200510/22Utah State21Boise State45
200209/28Boise State63Utah State38
200011/10Boise State66Utah State38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Boise State20106 Overs
Utah State135 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 97 - 65 - 12 - 5
Road Teams9 - 126 - 75 - 21 - 5

(#110) USU at (#59) BSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSUBSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #110 #59
SP+SP+ #79 #64
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #102 #74
Blue ChipsBC% #99 #99
Utah State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
USU OffBSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #91 #14
ExplosiveExp #18 #129
PPAPPA #47 #53
PowerPwr #89 #62
SP+SP+ #53 #60
Pts POPPO #16 #111
HavocHav #87 #50
Utah State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
USU OffBSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #89 #50
Run ExplRExp #9 #134
PPAExp #31 #120
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #81 #88
Stuff RateStuff #91 #61
TackleTak - NR
Utah State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
USU OffBSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #85 #6
Pass ExplPExl #67 #116
PPAExp #70 #7
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #119 #28
DB HavocDB #28 #81
Boise State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBSU OffUSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #77 #91
ExplosiveExp #47 #65
PPAPPA #44 #112
PowerPwr #54 #123
SP+SP+ #55 #98
Pts POPPO #73 #76
HavocHav #49 #114
Boise State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffUSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #80 #99
Run ExplRExp #55 #105
PPAExp #46 #124
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #39 #116
Stuff RateStuff #33 #108
TackleTak - NR
Boise State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBSU OffUSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #83 #70
Pass ExplPExl #43 #24
PPAExp #62 #62
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #33 #127
DB HavocDB #65 #57
Program Comparison
BSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Down to Top G5

USU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'26 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Utah State last year (25-24)
Boise State beat Utah State in 2024 (62-30)
Boise State beat Utah State in 2023 (45-10)

  
USU's OC Kevin McGiven (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Anthony Garcia6786%794011.3
McCae Hillstead (Tr)4580%33006.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Javen Jacobs6542956.658
Sesi Vailahi (Tr)4215223.614
Noah White259303.720
Anthony Garcia117516.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javon Robinson (Tr)58599410.346
Javen Jacobs4337938.830
Anthony Garcia20348217.474
Eli Wood (Tr)16205212.838

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Nick Howell (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brevin Hamblin1103208
Bronson Olevao888463
Carson Tujague714151
Tyree Morris466411
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyree Morris466411
Chris Joe416431
Bronson Olevao888463
Brevin Hamblin1103208
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brevin Hamblin1103208
Bronson Olevao888463
Noah Flores261102

BSU's OC Nate Potter (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen17630258%23331897.7
Max Cutforth9516757%1059456.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley1951125105.877
Sire Gaines16181285.046
Juelz Goff (Tr)6927053.917
Harry Stewart III (Tr)219814.715
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cameron Bates18307117.144
Matt Wagner23246110.728
Dylan Riley1514929.975
Quinton Brown5120224.066

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Boen Phelps664150
Jayden Virgin56136120
Jake Ripp433030
JeRico Washington Jr. (Tr)4321010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Virgin56136120
Sterling Lane63310
Boen Phelps664150
David Latu93100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JeRico Washington Jr. (Tr)4321010
Sherrod Smith141006
Jaden Mickey387115