Boise State at Fresno State - 2026 Matchup Preview
Boise State logo   Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs  Fresno State logo
Saturday, October 10th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Bulldog Stadium - Fresno, CA  (Pac-12)

 
Broncos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (24 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (20 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 3.5 (#33)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
FRES is playing their 6th straight game
BSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -4.5  (SP+ BSU -1.5)
Projected Score: BSU: 25 - FRES: 21 (46)
BSU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
BSU Travel: 505 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (27 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#42)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Boise State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Boise State at Oregon+26.5
Sat 9/12 Boise State vs Memphis-4
Sat 9/19 Boise State vs South Dakota-26.5
Sat 9/26 Boise State at Western Michigan-5.5
Sat 10/3 Boise State vs Utah State-12.5
Sat 10/10 Boise State at Fresno State-4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24 Boise State at Washington State-1
Sat 10/31 Boise State vs Texas State-5
Sat 11/7 Boise State at Colorado State-13.5
Sat 11/14 Boise State vs Oregon State-20.5
Fri 11/20 Boise State vs San Diego State-5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
Fresno State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Fresno State at USC+28
Sat 9/12 Fresno State vs Sacramento State-5.5
Sat 9/19 Fresno State at San José State-8.5
Sat 9/26 Fresno State vs Rice-13
Fri 10/2 Fresno State at Washington State+6
Sat 10/10 Fresno State vs Boise State+4.5
Sat 10/17 Fresno State at San Diego State+7
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/30 Fresno State vs Oregon State-13.5
Sat 11/7 Fresno State at Utah State-0.5
Sat 11/14 Fresno State at Texas State+7
Sat 11/21 Fresno State vs Colorado State-11.5
Sat 11/28 Fresno State vs TBD-19

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU#44 (.2)42% (77)29.943% (80)3.11 (39)17941% (83)2453.66 (73)#53 (.12)36% (14)24.141% (50)33% (6)4.14 (111)59.41.51.6
FRES#106 (.11)39% (111)25.838% (120)2.79 (102)17141% (78)1833.29 (111)#41 (.11)39% (32)18.843% (78)35% (13)3.26 (33)60.61.52
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FRES0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Offense1429.919.841.8%3.661.5224241792454.651%47%43%41%14%.2
FRES Defense1318.815.338.9%3.262 - - - - - 50%49%43%35%17%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Defense1424.123.836.5%4.141.6 - - - - - 52%46%41%33%17%.12
FRES Offense1325.826.538.6%3.291.5193541711834.653%45%38%41%15%.11

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Boise State1432:5022.146%51%6.959.41.51.662330.6
Fresno State1332:1918.936%43%6.660.61.525.21.8333.6
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Offense1451% (51)43% (80)39.3179.44.629 (30).16 (46)3.11 (39)79% (22)8% (33)1 (55)
FRES Defense1350% (62)43% (78) - - - - .09 (61)3 (92)74% (91)10% (70)0.82 (8)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Defense1452% (93)41% (50) - - - - .2 (120)2.98 (88)67% (39)11% (28)1.22 (134)
FRES Offense1353% (40)38% (120)37.1170.74.622 (49).02 (114)2.79 (102)73% (57)10% (87)1.01 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Offense1447% (83)41% (83)19.633.7244.97.312.523 (22)14 (88).27 (62)1.6 (43)33% (91)31% (58).28 (74)6% (65)1.8 (124)
FRES Defense1349% (76)35% (13) - - - - - - 20 (12).15 (25)1.6 (94)33% (43)27% (33).19 (24)8% (13)1.8 (18)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Defense1446% (45)33% (6) - - - - - - 14 (22).08 (7)1.7 (116)37% (4)28% (49).22 (33)6% (81)2.1 (87)
FRES Offense1345% (99)41% (78)18.428.7183.46.41014 (75)13 (127).25 (64)1.5 (77)33% (97)30% (72).31 (69)5% (45)2 (86)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 2.47  #59
Boise State's Offense Rating: 13.36  #54
Boise State's Defense Rating: 15.89  #62
2026 Talent Rating: 702.00  #74
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #99
Boise State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.5 - 3.5
Boise State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.1  #64
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.1  #55
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.1  #60

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 2.47   Fresno State: -1.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 3.1   Fresno State: 1.8




Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: -1.865  #99
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 1.37  #126
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 16.90  #70
2026 Talent Rating: 658.00  #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #99
Fresno State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
Fresno State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8  #66
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0  #100
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1  #37

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17


Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

Boise State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 25
Fresno State 21

Projected Total Points: 46
Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Fresno State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Boise State7Fresno State30Boise State -17.5Fresno State47.5Under
202311/04Fresno State37Boise State30Fresno State -2.5Fresno State53.5Over
202210/08Boise State40Fresno State20Boise State -9Boise State45.0Over
202212/03Boise State16Fresno State28Boise State -3Fresno State54.5Under
202111/06Fresno State14Boise State40Fresno State -4Boise State61.5Under
201811/09Boise State24Fresno State17Fresno State -2.5Boise State56.0Under
201812/01Boise State16Fresno State19Boise State -2Fresno State51.5Under
201712/02Boise State17Fresno State14Boise State -9.5Fresno State51.0Under
201711/25Fresno State28Boise State17Boise State -6.5Fresno State49.0Under
201410/17Boise State37Fresno State27Boise State -16Fresno State0
201412/06Boise State28Fresno State14Boise State -17Fresno State0
201309/20Fresno State41Boise State40Fresno State -3Boise State0
201210/13Boise State20Fresno State10
201110/07Fresno State7Boise State57
201011/19Boise State51Fresno State0
200909/18Fresno State34Boise State51
200811/28Boise State61Fresno State10
200710/26Fresno State21Boise State34
200611/01Boise State45Fresno State21
200511/10Fresno State27Boise State7
200410/23Boise State33Fresno State16
200311/21Fresno State17Boise State31
200210/18Boise State67Fresno State21
200110/19Fresno State30Boise State35
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Fresno State782 Overs
Boise State1747 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 94 - 82 - 82 - 0
Road Teams9 - 158 - 40 - 28 - 2

(#59) BSU at (#99) FRES
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBSUFRES
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #59 #99
SP+SP+ #64 #66
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #74 #81
Blue ChipsBC% #99 #99
Boise State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffFRES Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #77 #32
ExplosiveExp #47 #25
PPAPPA #44 #41
PowerPwr #54 #70
SP+SP+ #55 #37
Pts POPPO #73 #33
HavocHav #49 #30
Boise State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffFRES Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #80 #78
Run ExplRExp #55 #8
PPAExp #46 #61
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #39 #92
Stuff RateStuff #33 #50
TackleTak - NR
Boise State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffFRES Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #83 #13
Pass ExplPExl #43 #94
PPAExp #62 #25
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #33 #70
DB HavocDB #65 #13
Fresno State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatFRES OffBSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #111 #14
ExplosiveExp #54 #129
PPAPPA #106 #53
PowerPwr #126 #62
SP+SP+ #100 #60
Pts POPPO #111 #111
HavocHav #64 #50
Fresno State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FRES OffBSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #120 #50
Run ExplRExp #50 #134
PPAExp #114 #120
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #102 #88
Stuff RateStuff #90 #61
TackleTak - NR
Fresno State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatFRES OffBSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #78 #6
Pass ExplPExl #77 #116
PPAExp #64 #7
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #87 #28
DB HavocDB #45 #81
Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

BSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Boise State last year (30-7)
Fresno State beat Boise State in 2023 (37-30)

  
BSU's OC Nate Potter (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen17630258%23331897.7
Max Cutforth9516757%1059456.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley1951125105.877
Sire Gaines16181285.046
Juelz Goff (Tr)6927053.917
Harry Stewart III (Tr)219814.715
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cameron Bates18307117.144
Matt Wagner23246110.728
Dylan Riley1514929.975
Quinton Brown5120224.066

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Boen Phelps664150
Jayden Virgin56136120
Jake Ripp433030
JeRico Washington Jr. (Tr)4321010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Virgin56136120
Sterling Lane63310
Boen Phelps664150
David Latu93100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JeRico Washington Jr. (Tr)4321010
Sherrod Smith141006
Jaden Mickey387115

FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Khristian Martin (Tr)111765%105106.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rayshon Luke11069966.469
Bryson Donelson14258354.157
Brandon Ramirez6027134.519
Josiah Freeman31705.79
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Josiah Freeman52642612.351
Ezekiel Avit2825509.141
Rayshon Luke3622826.323
Jahlil McClain13169113.043

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Simeon Harris537105
Camryn Bracha523004
Finn Claypool4111741
Tytus Khajavi373110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Finn Claypool4111741
Jahzon Jacks327430
Deijon Laffitte275303
Simeon Harris537105
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Simeon Harris537105
Ryan Wilson252104
Camryn Bracha523004