Oregon State at Boise State - 2026 Matchup Preview
Oregon State logo   Oregon State Beavers at Boise State Broncos  Boise State logo
Saturday, November 14th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Albertsons Stadium - Boise, ID  (Pac-12)

 
Beavers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach JaMarcus Shephard (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 29 (12 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.9 - 8.1 (#76)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
BSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Boise State -20.5  (SP+ BSU -19)
Projected Score: ORST: 16 - BSU: 37 (53)
BSU Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
ORST Travel: 358 miles, 1 hrs behind
Broncos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (24 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (41 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 3.5 (#33)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Oregon State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Oregon State at Houston+23.5
Sat 9/12 Oregon State vs Texas Tech+39.5
Sat 9/19 Oregon State vs Montana-8.5
Sat 9/26 Oregon State at UTEP+4
Sat 10/3 Oregon State at Colorado State+4.5
Sat 10/10 Oregon State vs San Diego State+13
Sat 10/17 Oregon State vs Washington State+12
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/30 Oregon State at Fresno State+13.5
Sat 11/7 Oregon State vs Texas State+12.5
Sat 11/14 Oregon State at Boise State+20.5
Sat 11/21 Oregon State vs Utah State+5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule
Boise State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Boise State at Oregon+26.5
Sat 9/12 Boise State vs Memphis-4
Sat 9/19 Boise State vs South Dakota-26.5
Sat 9/26 Boise State at Western Michigan-5.5
Sat 10/3 Boise State vs Utah State-12.5
Sat 10/10 Boise State at Fresno State-4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24 Boise State at Washington State-1
Sat 10/31 Boise State vs Texas State-5
Sat 11/7 Boise State at Colorado State-13.5
Sat 11/14 Boise State vs Oregon State-20.5
Fri 11/20 Boise State vs San Diego State-5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST#124 (.05)42% (68)17.644% (67)2.82 (89)12742% (68)2252.89 (128)#77 (.18)38% (25)29.441% (51)36% (18)3.41 (46)49.91.70.8
BSU#44 (.2)42% (77)29.943% (80)3.11 (39)17941% (83)2453.66 (73)#53 (.12)36% (14)24.141% (50)33% (6)4.14 (111)59.41.51.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Offense1217.611.842.3%2.891.7203531272253.846%52%44%42%16%.05
BSU Defense1424.122.336.5%4.141.6 - - - - - 52%46%41%33%17%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Defense1229.435.238.3%3.410.8 - - - - - 49%49%41%36%17%.18
BSU Offense1429.941.341.8%3.661.5224241792454.651%47%43%41%14%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oregon State1231:5220.436%40%5.949.91.70.85.31.3028.3
Boise State1432:5022.146%51%6.959.41.51.662330.6
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Offense1246% (98)44% (67)33.9127.33.815 (60).01 (120)2.82 (89)77% (30)9% (61)0.73 (135)
BSU Defense1452% (93)41% (50) - - - - .2 (120)2.98 (88)67% (39)11% (28)1.22 (134)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Defense1249% (59)41% (51) - - - - .07 (52)2.6 (17)68% (43)10% (57)0.94 (57)
BSU Offense1451% (51)43% (80)39.3179.44.629 (30).16 (46)3.11 (39)79% (22)8% (33)1 (55)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Offense1252% (36)42% (68)21.735.9225.46.310.414 (61)13 (127).11 (123)1.3 (133)31% (68)28% (96).05 (131)7% (110)1.7 (134)
BSU Defense1446% (45)33% (6) - - - - - - 14 (22).08 (7)1.7 (116)37% (4)28% (49).22 (33)6% (81)2.1 (87)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Defense1249% (81)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (55).31 (98)2 (136)33% (44)29% (69).44 (126)7% (15)2.5 (136)
BSU Offense1447% (83)41% (83)19.633.7244.97.312.523 (22)14 (88).27 (62)1.6 (43)33% (91)31% (58).28 (74)6% (65)1.8 (124)

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -14.33  #118
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 0.53  #130
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 19.86  #89
2026 Talent Rating: 566.00  #96
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #66
Oregon State's 2026 Expected Record: 2.9 - 8.1
Oregon State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.9  #126
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.0  #125
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8  #96

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: -14.33   Boise State: 5.285

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: -15.9   Boise State: 3.1




Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 5.285  #59
Boise State's Offense Rating: 13.36  #54
Boise State's Defense Rating: 15.89  #62
2026 Talent Rating: 702.00  #74
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #99
Boise State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.5 - 3.5
Boise State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.1  #64
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.1  #55
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.1  #60

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 627.25
Average Power Five Talent: 897.88
Average FBS Talent: 712.17


Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.8
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.2

Oregon State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Boise State 37
Oregon State 16

Projected Total Points: 53
Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.3
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Boise State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/29Boise State34Oregon State18Boise State -17.5Oregon State58.5Under
202209/03Oregon State34Boise State17Oregon State -2Oregon State55.5Under
201609/24Oregon State24Boise State38Boise State -14NA60.0Over
201312/24Oregon State38Boise State23Oregon State -4Oregon State66.5Under
201009/25Boise State37Oregon State24
200609/07Boise State42Oregon State14
200509/10Oregon State30Boise State27
200409/10Boise State53Oregon State34
200309/20Oregon State26Boise State24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Boise State501 Overs
Oregon State433 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 12 - 12 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 81 - 20 - 01 - 2

(#118) ORST at (#59) BSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatORSTBSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #118 #59
SP+SP+ #126 #64
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #96 #74
Blue ChipsBC% #66 #99
Oregon State Notes
(2/2) Reset w/ Shephard in new P12 after Brey fired
(2/2) Special Teams were a disaster in '25, must fix
Oregon State Injury Report
Oregon State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ORST OffBSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #68 #14
ExplosiveExp #135 #129
PPAPPA #124 #53
PowerPwr #130 #62
SP+SP+ #125 #60
Pts POPPO #128 #111
HavocHav #89 #50
Oregon State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ORST OffBSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #67 #50
Run ExplRExp #135 #134
PPAExp #120 #120
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #89 #88
Stuff RateStuff #24 #61
TackleTak - NR
Oregon State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ORST OffBSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #68 #6
Pass ExplPExl #133 #116
PPAExp #123 #7
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #61 #28
DB HavocDB #110 #81
Boise State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBSU OffORST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #77 #25
ExplosiveExp #47 #133
PPAPPA #44 #77
PowerPwr #54 #89
SP+SP+ #55 #96
Pts POPPO #73 #46
HavocHav #49 #36
Boise State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffORST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #80 #51
Run ExplRExp #55 #57
PPAExp #46 #52
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #39 #17
Stuff RateStuff #33 #22
TackleTak - NR
Boise State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatBSU OffORST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #83 #18
Pass ExplPExl #43 #136
PPAExp #62 #98
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #33 #57
DB HavocDB #65 #15
Program Comparison
BSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Down to Top G5

ORST 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'26 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Oregon State in 2024 (34-18)

  
ORST's OC Mitch Dahlen (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maalik Murphy16027658%1802986.5
Brady Jones (Tr)194048%136133.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cornell Hatcher Jr.5229225.642
AJ Newberry (Tr)185733.216
Kourdey Glass2703.57
Jake Reichle3612.03
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
D.C. Temple1714328.419
Eddie Freauff12139111.630
Karson Boschma489122.328
Malachi Durant32719.011

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Mike MacIntyre (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aiden Sullivan727151
Takari Hickle385250
Sailasa Vadrawale311015
Tyree Blake292001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Takari Hickle385250
Aiden Sullivan727151
Jaylen Hill21101
Malachi Durant10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sailasa Vadrawale311015
Trey Glasper232005
Mason White281002

BSU's OC Nate Potter (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen17630258%23331897.7
Max Cutforth9516757%1059456.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley1951125105.877
Sire Gaines16181285.046
Juelz Goff (Tr)6927053.917
Harry Stewart III (Tr)219814.715
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cameron Bates18307117.144
Matt Wagner23246110.728
Dylan Riley1514929.975
Quinton Brown5120224.066

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Boen Phelps664150
Jayden Virgin56136120
Jake Ripp433030
JeRico Washington Jr. (Tr)4321010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Virgin56136120
Sterling Lane63310
Boen Phelps664150
David Latu93100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JeRico Washington Jr. (Tr)4321010
Sherrod Smith141006
Jaden Mickey387115