Boise State at Oregon - 2026 Matchup Preview
Boise State logo Boise State Broncos at Oregon DucksOregon logo
Saturday, September 5th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Autzen Stadium - Eugene, OR

 
Broncos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Spencer Danielson (24 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (20 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#1)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Oregon -28.5  (SP+ ORE -23)
Projected Score: BSU: 12 - ORE: 41 (53)
ORE Win prob: 97% | Cover: 52%
BSU Travel: 344 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Ducks (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (48 - 9)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (43 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#1)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Boise State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Boise State at Oregon+28.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Boise State's Schedule
Oregon's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Oregon vs Boise State-28.5
Sat 9/12 Oregon at Oklahoma State-31.5
Sat 9/19 Oregon vs Portland State-49
Sat 9/26 Oregon at USC-2.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/10 Oregon vs UCLA-30
Sat 10/17 Oregon vs Nebraska-22.5
Sat 10/24 Oregon at Illinois-12
Sat 10/31 Oregon vs Northwestern-24.5
Sat 11/7 Oregon at Ohio State+6.5
Sat 11/14 Oregon vs Michigan-12.5
Sat 11/21 Oregon at Michigan State-25
Sat 11/28 Oregon vs Washington-9.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU#44 (.2)42% (77)29.943% (80)3.11 (39)17941% (83)2453.66 (73)#53 (.12)36% (14)24.141% (50)33% (6)4.14 (111)59.41.51.6
ORE#13 (.3)48% (17)36.948% (18)3.08 (45)19949% (13)2544.1 (36)#13 (.05)36% (12)17.938% (24)36% (14)3.9 (92)49.711.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ORE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Offense1429.919.841.8%3.661.5224241792454.651%47%43%41%14%.2
ORE Defense1517.916.836.4%3.91.5 - - - - - 49%48%38%36%18%.05
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BSU Defense1424.123.836.5%4.141.6 - - - - - 52%46%41%33%17%.12
ORE Offense1536.943.147.8%4.11224521992545.452%46%48%49%11%.3

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Boise State1432:5022.146%51%6.959.41.51.662330.6
Oregon1530:4821.947%56%5.149.711.552531.1
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Offense1451% (51)43% (80)39.3179.44.629 (30).16 (46)3.11 (39)79% (22)8% (33)1 (55)
ORE Defense1549% (57)38% (24) - - - - .05 (39)2.72 (35)71% (69)10% (68)0.98 (79)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BSU Defense1452% (93)41% (50) - - - - .2 (120)2.98 (88)67% (39)11% (28)1.22 (134)
ORE Offense1552% (46)48% (18)36.7198.65.435 (16).23 (16)3.08 (45)71% (73)8% (26)1.04 (42)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Offense1447% (83)41% (83)19.633.7244.97.312.523 (22)14 (88).27 (62)1.6 (43)33% (91)31% (58).28 (74)6% (65)1.8 (124)
ORE Defense1548% (69)36% (14) - - - - - - 15 (22).15 (26)1.6 (90)36% (14)28% (52).21 (30)9% (6)2 (61)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BSU Defense1446% (45)33% (6) - - - - - - 14 (22).08 (7)1.7 (116)37% (4)28% (49).22 (33)6% (81)2.1 (87)
ORE Offense1546% (93)49% (13)20.929.1253.68.712.231 (6)10 (34).42 (16)1.6 (38)26% (12)31% (55).39 (36)3% (6)2.1 (61)

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: -3.58  #72
Boise State's Offense Rating: 9.36  #74
Boise State's Defense Rating: 17.94  #72
2026 Talent Rating: 702.00  #74
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #24
Boise State's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Boise State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.1  #64
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.1  #55
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.1  #60

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 620.75
Average Power Five Talent: 885.22
Average FBS Talent: 707.18

Power Ratings Matchup
Boise State: -3.58   Oregon: 28.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Boise State: 3.1   Oregon: 25.9




Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 28.15  #9
Oregon's Offense Rating: 23.41  #6
Oregon's Defense Rating: 3.01  #12
2026 Talent Rating: 1022.00  #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #24
Oregon's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Oregon's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 25.9  #4
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.7  #10
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.5  #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.78
Average Power Five Talent: 885.22
Average FBS Talent: 707.18


Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.8

Boise State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Oregon 41
Boise State 12

Projected Total Points: 53
Oregon Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 17.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.8

Oregon's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07Oregon37Boise State34Oregon -17.5Boise State60.5Over
201712/16Oregon28Boise State38Oregon -7Boise State63.0Over
200909/03Boise State19Oregon8
200809/20Oregon32Boise State37
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oregon102 Overs
Boise State320 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 20 - 20 - 20 - 0
Road Teams2 - 22 - 00 - 02 - 0

(#72) BSU at (#9) ORE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBSUORE
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #72 #9
SP+SP+ #64 #4
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #74 #9
Blue ChipsBC% #24 #24
Boise State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffORE Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #77 #12
ExplosiveExp #47 #83
PPAPPA #44 #13
PowerPwr #74 #12
SP+SP+ #55 #5
Pts POPPO #73 #92
HavocHav #49 #21
Boise State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffORE Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #80 #24
Run ExplRExp #55 #79
PPAExp #46 #39
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #39 #35
Stuff RateStuff #33 #100
TackleTak - NR
Boise State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
BSU OffORE Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #83 #14
Pass ExplPExl #43 #90
PPAExp #62 #26
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #33 #68
DB HavocDB #65 #6
Oregon on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatORE OffBSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #17 #14
ExplosiveExp #35 #129
PPAPPA #13 #53
PowerPwr #6 #72
SP+SP+ #10 #60
Pts POPPO #36 #111
HavocHav #4 #50
Oregon Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
ORE OffBSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #18 #50
Run ExplRExp #42 #134
PPAExp #16 #120
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #45 #88
Stuff RateStuff #31 #61
TackleTak - NR
Oregon Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatORE OffBSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #13 #6
Pass ExplPExl #38 #116
PPAExp #16 #7
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #26 #28
DB HavocDB #6 #81
Program Comparison
ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'26 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

BSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Boise State in 2024 (37-34)

  
BSU's OC Nate Potter (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maddux Madsen17630258%23331897.7
Max Cutforth9516757%1059456.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Riley1951125105.877
Sire Gaines16181285.046
Juelz Goff (Tr)6927053.917
Harry Stewart III (Tr)219814.715
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cameron Bates18307117.144
Matt Wagner23246110.728
Dylan Riley1514929.975
Quinton Brown5120224.066

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC Erik Chinander (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Boen Phelps664150
Jayden Virgin56136120
Jake Ripp433030
JeRico Washington Jr. (Tr)4321010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Virgin56136120
Sterling Lane63310
Boen Phelps664150
David Latu93100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JeRico Washington Jr. (Tr)4321010
Sherrod Smith141006
Jaden Mickey387115

ORE's OC Drew Mehringer (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dante Moore29641272%356530108.7
Dylan Raiola (Tr)18125072%20001868.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordon Davison112667156.067
Dierre Hill Jr.7565658.771
Dante Moore7315622.149
Da'Jaun Riggs178605.119
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Iverson Hooks (Tr)72927712.951
Jeremiah McClellan38557314.751
Jamari Johnson32510315.956
Dakorien Moore34497314.665

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Chris Hampton (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Koi Perich (Tr)823102
Aaron Flowers691013
Teitum Tuioti68161075
Jerry Mixon574147
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Teitum Tuioti68161075
Matayo Uiagalelei3410673
Nasir Wyatt114310
A'Mauri Washington335257
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jerry Mixon574147
Brandon Finney Jr.423107
A'Mauri Washington335257