UCF at Houston - 2026 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium - Houston, TX

Knights (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Scott Frost (24 - 14)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (13 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#84)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

HOU is playing their 5th straight game
UCF is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Houston -11.5 (SP+ HOU -9)
Projected Score: UCF: 19 - HOU: 30 (49)
HOU Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
UCF Travel: 857 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Cougars (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (26 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#29)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UCF Players
HOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UCF's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/3	UCF vs Bethune-Cookman	-21
Sat 9/12	UCF at Pittsburgh	+13
Sat 9/19	UCF vs Georgia State	-22
Sat 9/26	UCF vs TCU	+8
Sat 10/3	UCF at Houston	+11.5
Sat 10/10	UCF at Oklahoma State	-3.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24	UCF vs BYU	+15
Sat 10/31	UCF vs Baylor	+2
Sat 11/7	UCF at Kansas	+6
Sat 11/14	UCF vs Arizona State	+3.5
Sat 11/21	UCF vs Iowa State	+4
Sat 11/28	UCF at Colorado	-3

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule

Houston's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Houston vs Oregon State	-24.5
Sat 9/12	Houston vs Southern	-30
Sat 9/19	Houston at Texas Tech	+22.5
Sat 9/26	Houston at Georgia Southern	-14.5
Sat 10/3	Houston vs UCF	-11.5
Sat 10/10	Houston at Kansas State	+2.5
Sat 10/17	Houston vs Oklahoma State	-17.5
Sat 10/24	Houston at Utah	+12.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/7	Houston vs Cincinnati	-5.5
Sat 11/14	Houston at Colorado	-12
Sat 11/21	Houston at West Virginia	-6.5
Sat 11/28	Houston vs Baylor	-7

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF	#88 (.14)	39% (107)	24.3	39% (111)	2.61 (126)	158	40% (93)	221	3.49 (94)	#51 (.12)	44% (95)	23.6	47% (116)	40% (54)	3.52 (55)	57.2	1.5	1.2
HOU	#102 (.12)	42% (74)	29.1	40% (99)	2.61 (125)	179	45% (35)	216	3.55 (83)	#44 (.11)	42% (65)	22.8	46% (104)	38% (35)	3.91 (94)	40.1	1.1	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UCF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
HOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Offense	12	24.3	12.8	39.1%	3.49	1.5	18	379	158	221	4.9	45%	53%	39%	40%	17%	.14
HOU Defense	13	22.8	24.2	41.5%	3.91	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	46%	38%	16%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UCF Defense	12	23.6	34.6	43.7%	3.52	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	47%	40%	16%	.12
HOU Offense	13	29.1	25.7	41.9%	3.55	1.1	22	395	179	216	4.3	57%	42%	40%	45%	13%	.12

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UCF	12	29:55	18.2	34%	56%	7.6	57.2	1.5	1.2	5.6	2.1	2	28.4
Houston	13	32:18	22.1	41%	59%	4.6	40.1	1.1	1.4	4.7	2.2	2	30.6

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Offense	12	45% (106)	39% (111)	32.3	158.2	4.9	19 (26)	.11 (68)	2.61 (126)	62% (123)	11% (107)	1.25 (1)
HOU Defense	13	49% (55)	46% (104)	-	-	-	-	.05 (41)	2.7 (32)	76% (104)	9% (84)	0.78 (5)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UCF Defense	12	54% (110)	47% (116)	-	-	-	-	.12 (84)	3.06 (101)	85% (132)	10% (46)	0.88 (28)
HOU Offense	13	57% (17)	40% (99)	41.9	178.6	4.3	17 (78)	-.03 (132)	2.61 (125)	73% (61)	8% (40)	0.8 (130)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Offense	12	53% (30)	40% (93)	20.8	33.6	220.8	6.6	10.6	12 (114)	12 (34)	.18 (104)	1.5 (102)	33% (105)	24% (126)	.19 (116)	7% (92)	2.3 (9)
HOU Defense	13	49% (80)	38% (35)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (38)	.21 (56)	1.5 (53)	32% (60)	25% (14)	.23 (46)	7% (28)	2.1 (100)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UCF Defense	12	45% (28)	40% (54)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (55)	.16 (28)	1.4 (19)	31% (81)	25% (16)	.11 (7)	6% (62)	1.7 (5)
HOU Offense	13	42% (118)	45% (35)	18.6	29	216.4	7.5	11.6	26 (50)	10 (20)	.35 (35)	1.7 (16)	30% (43)	27% (105)	.21 (101)	5% (33)	2 (79)

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: -3.32 #71
UCF's Offense Rating: 6.98 #88
UCF's Defense Rating: 15.30 #56
2026 Talent Rating: 616.00 #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 15% #32
UCF's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
UCF's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.2 #76
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.2 #98
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.0 #51

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF: -3.32 Houston: 9.04

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: -1.2 Houston: 7.4

Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 9.04 #40
Houston's Offense Rating: 13.90 #43
Houston's Defense Rating: 13.22 #39
2026 Talent Rating: 812.00 #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #46
Houston's 2026 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Houston's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.4 #40
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #44
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #46

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.8
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.6

UCF's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Houston 30
UCF 19

Projected Total Points: 49

Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Houston's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/07	UCF	27	Houston	30	UCF -1.5	Houston	47.5	Over
2023	11/25	UCF	27	Houston	13	UCF -15.5	Houston	61.5	Under
2020	10/31	Houston	21	UCF	44	UCF -3	UCF	81.0	Under
2019	11/02	UCF	44	Houston	29	UCF -22	Houston	72.0	Over
2016	10/29	Houston	31	UCF	24	Houston -12.5	UCF	59.0	Under
2015	10/24	UCF	10	Houston	59	Houston -18.5	Houston	53.0	Over
2014	10/02	Houston	12	UCF	17	Houston -2.5	UCF	0
2013	11/09	UCF	19	Houston	14	UCF -10	Houston	0
2010	11/05	Houston	33	UCF	40
2009	11/14	UCF	37	Houston	32
2006	10/28	Houston	51	UCF	31
2005	11/05	UCF	31	Houston	29

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Houston	4	5	3 Overs
UCF	8	3	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 5	0 - 8	0 - 6	0 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 7	8 - 0	2 - 0	6 - 0

(#71) UCF at (#40) HOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UCF	HOU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#71	#40
SP+SP+	#76	#40
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#84	#52
Blue ChipsBC%	#32	#46

UCF Injury Report

Houston Injury Report

UCF on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	HOU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#107	#65
ExplosiveExp	#11	#9
PPAPPA	#88	#44
PowerPwr	#88	#39
SP+SP+	#98	#46
Pts POPPO	#94	#94
HavocHav	#106	#58

UCF Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	HOU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#111	#104
Run ExplRExp	#1	#5
PPAExp	#68	#41
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#126	#32
Stuff RateStuff	#128	#54
TackleTak	-	NR

UCF Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UCF Off	HOU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#93	#35
Pass ExplPExl	#102	#53
PPAExp	#104	#56
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#107	#84
DB HavocDB	#92	#28

Houston on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	UCF Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#74	#95
ExplosiveExp	#85	#5
PPAPPA	#102	#51
PowerPwr	#43	#56
SP+SP+	#44	#51
Pts POPPO	#83	#55
HavocHav	#36	#54

Houston Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	UCF Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#99	#116
Run ExplRExp	#130	#28
PPAExp	#132	#84
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#125	#101
Stuff RateStuff	#108	#112
TackleTak	-	NR

Houston Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat	HOU Off	UCF Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#35	#54
Pass ExplPExl	#16	#19
PPAExp	#35	#28
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#40	#46
DB HavocDB	#33	#62

Program Comparison
HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Average P4

UCF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Houston beat UCF last year (30-27)
UCF beat Houston in 2023 (27-13)

UCF's OC Steve Cooper (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alonza Barnett	216	370	58%	2806	23	8	7.6
Keyone Jenkins (Tr)	164	263	62%	1742	9	6	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landen Chambers (Tr)	242	1273	10	5.3	53
Alonza Barnett	127	589	15	4.6	58
Duke Watson (Tr)	49	158	1	3.2	15
Keyone Jenkins (Tr)	52	114	5	2.2	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Joshua Derry	73	1101	13	15.1	75
Duane Thomas Jr.	53	528	0	10.0	41
Dylan Wade	43	523	5	12.2	83
Jonathan Bibbs (Tr)	26	383	3	14.7	68

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC Alex Grinch (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lewis Carter	95	4	2	1	1
Jahleel Culbreath (Tr)	71	10	3	3	0
Demari Henderson	61	3	1	0	1
Rashad Henry (Tr)	51	3	0	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bruno Dall (Tr)	44	8	4	6	6
Jahleel Culbreath (Tr)	71	10	3	3	0
Lewis Carter	95	4	2	1	1
R.J. Jackson	24	3	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden Bellamy	27	0	0	0	8
Bruno Dall (Tr)	44	8	4	6	6
Antoine Jackson	39	1	0	0	4

HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Conner Weigman	232	356	65%	2705	25	9	7.6
Luke Carney (Tr)	5	7	71%	22	0	0	3.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Conner Weigman	170	703	11	4.1	50
DJ Butler	68	301	0	4.4	15
Makhi Hughes (Tr)	17	70	0	4.1	19
Luke Carney (Tr)	10	28	1	2.8	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Amare Thomas	67	966	12	14.4	64
Trent Walker (Tr)	68	823	2	12.1	43
Patrick Overmyer (Tr)	27	344	5	12.7	45
Koby Young	12	191	0	15.9	43

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kentrell Webb	71	3	0	0	4
Jaden Yates (Tr)	55	2	1	0	0
Sione Fotu	53	1	1	2	0
Jordan Allen	48	2	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Mack	32	6	5	1	0
Khalil Laufau	34	3	2	2	1
Latreveon McCutchin	37	3	1	4	2
Carmycah Glass	24	1	1	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Javion White (Tr)	44	4	6
Will James	39	4	5
Kentrell Webb	71	3	4