New Mexico State at Minnesota - 2022 Matchup Preview

New Mexico State Aggies at Minnesota Golden Gophers

Thursday, September 1st 2022 (9:00 PM EDT)
Minnesota -36 (52.5)
Minnesota 38 - New Mexico State: 0

Aggies (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 24 (18 - 33 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -18 (SP+ MINN -31)
Projected Score: NMSU: 15 - MINN: 32 (47)
MINN Win prob: 97% | Cover: 58%
NMSU Travel: 1138 miles, 1 hrs behind

Golden Gophers (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (35 - 23)
Avg Score : 28 - 14 (33 - 8 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NMSU Players
MINN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/27	New Mexico State vs Nevada	+7.0	48.0	L 12 - 23	U	N
Thu 9/1	New Mexico State at Minnesota	+36.0	52.5	L 0 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/10	New Mexico State at UTEP	+17.0	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/17	New Mexico State at Wisconsin	+38.0	45.5	L 7 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/24	New Mexico State vs Hawai'i	-4.5	53.0	W 45 - 26	O	Y
Sat 10/1	New Mexico State vs Florida International	-15.0	54.0	L 7 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	New Mexico State vs New Mexico	+7.0	38.5	W 21 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/22	New Mexico State vs San José State	+21.0	43.0
Sat 10/29	New Mexico State at Massachusetts	-1.0	39.0	W 23 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12	New Mexico State vs Lamar	-22.0	48.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/19	New Mexico State at Missouri	+29.0	46.5	L 14 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/26	New Mexico State at Liberty	+24.0	51.0	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Sat 12/3	New Mexico State vs Valparaiso	-31.5	55.0	W 65 - 3	O	Y
Mon 12/26	New Mexico State vs Bowling Green	+3.0	51.0	W 24 - 19	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Minnesota's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Minnesota vs New Mexico State	-36.0	52.5	W 38 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Minnesota vs Western Illinois	-41.0	56.5	W 62 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Minnesota vs Colorado	-28.0	47.5	W 49 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Minnesota at Michigan State	-3.0	50.0	W 34 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/1	Minnesota vs Purdue	-9.0	53.0	L 10 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	Minnesota at Illinois	-4.5	40.0	L 14 - 26	U	N
Sat 10/22	Minnesota at Penn State	+5.5	43.0	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/29	Minnesota vs Rutgers	-14.0	40.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/5	Minnesota at Nebraska	-14.5	44.5	W 20 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/12	Minnesota vs Northwestern	-17.0	40.5	W 31 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/19	Minnesota vs Iowa	-2.0	31.5	L 10 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/26	Minnesota at Wisconsin	+3.0	37.0	W 23 - 16	O	Y
Thu 12/29	Minnesota vs Syracuse	-10.5	45.0	W 28 - 20	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	.18	38%	25.5	40%	2.88	162	36%	169	4.18	.16	43%	23.9	47%	40%	3.86	57.4	1.4	1.2
MINN	.24	48%	28.2	49%	3.3	207	48%	182	4.36	.12	37%	13.8	38%	36%	2.84	31.8	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)		46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)		43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8
MINN	#64 (.2)	45% (39)		44% (65)	2.7 (119)	103	46% (29)	204	4.38 (27)	#16 (.08)	39% (35)		36% (8)	42% (80)	3.32 (23)	35.6	0.8	1.5

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	13	25.5	17.7	37.7%	4.18	1.4	17	331	162	169	4.6	56%	43%	40%	36%	19%	.18
MINN Defense	13	13.8	7.6	36.7%	2.84	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	38%	36%	13%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	13	23.9	32.7	43%	3.86	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	47%	40%	17%	.16
MINN Offense	13	28.2	33	47.8%	4.36	1	22	390	207	182	4.6	64%	35%	49%	48%	12%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	13	28:51	16.6	39%	73%	6.5	57.4	1.4	1.2	5.5	2.1	1	28.7
Minnesota	13	34:28	21.5	52%	55%	3.5	31.8	1	1.6	3.3	1.5	1	29.6

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	13	56%	40%	34.9	161.6	4.6	24	.13	2.88	84%	11%	1.08
MINN Defense	13	47%	38%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.99	76%	7%	0.99

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	13	53%	47%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.11	78%	11%	0.9
MINN Offense	13	64%	49%	44.8	207.4	4.6	33	.22	3.3	85%	7%	0.9

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	13	43%	36%	12.2	23.5	169.2	7.2	13.8	18	13	.25	1.9	35%	30%	.32	8%	2
MINN Defense	13	52%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.17	1.5	37%	25%	.21	6%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	13	46%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.21	1.5	30%	30%	.37	6%	2
MINN Offense	13	35%	48%	13.2	21.6	182.2	8.4	13.8	12	9	.37	1.5	28%	40%	.45	5%	1.7

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #140
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
New Mexico State's 2022 Expected Record: -
New Mexico State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4 #117
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.0 #128
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #61

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: Minnesota: 10.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -15.4 Minnesota: 16.0

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: 10.5 NR
Minnesota's Offense Rating: NR
Minnesota's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Minnesota's 2022 Expected Record: -
Minnesota's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.0 #16
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.5 #90
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.6 #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 25.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.7
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.7

New Mexico State's 2022 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Minnesota 32
New Mexico State 15

Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Minnesota 34
New Mexico State 15

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Minnesota 29
New Mexico State 16

Total Points: 45

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 28.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 33
Defense: 13.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.6

Minnesota's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	09/01	Minnesota	38	New Mexico State	0	Minnesota -36	Minnesota	52.5	Under
2018	08/30	Minnesota	48	New Mexico State	10	Minnesota -21.5	Minnesota	49.0	Over
2013	09/07	New Mexico State	21	Minnesota	44	Minnesota -17.5	Minnesota	0
2011	09/10	Minnesota	21	New Mexico State	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Minnesota	3	3	1 Overs
New Mexico State	1	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 2	2 - 1	2 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 0	0 - 2

(#) NMSU at (#) MINN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NMSU	MINN
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#117	#16
Perf GradeGrade	#113	#4
OffenseOff	#96	#2
DefenseDef	#105	#28
Spec TeamsST	#132	#37
TalentTal	#140	#50
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

New Mexico State Injury Report

Minnesota Injury Report

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	MINN Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#96	#28
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#128	#5
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	MINN Def
Run GameRun	#20	#43
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#120	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#9

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	MINN Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#94	#125
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Minnesota on Offense


CategoryCat	MINN Off	NMSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#2	#105
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#90	#61
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Minnesota Run Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#22	#112
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#1	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#49

Minnesota Pass Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#13	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#43	#120
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MINN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'22 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'22 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 78° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 1
Minnesota -36.0 (52.5)
Minnesota won vs New Mexico State this year (38-0)

Previous Matchups
Minnesota beat New Mexico State in 2022 (38-0)

NMSU's OC Tim Beck (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MINN's OC Kirk Ciarrocca (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Joe Rossi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD