New Mexico State at Massachusetts - 2022 Matchup Preview

New Mexico State Aggies at Massachusetts Minutemen

Saturday, October 29th 2022 (3:30 PM EDT)
New Mexico State -1 (39.0)
New Mexico State 23 - Massachusetts: 13 (FBS Independents)

Aggies (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UMASS coming off BYE
Our Line: -5 (SP+ NMSU -15)
Projected Score: NMSU: 29 - UMASS: 22 (51)
NMSU Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
NMSU Travel: 1989 miles, 2 hrs behind

Minutemen (1 - 11) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Don Brown (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (13 - 35 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NMSU Players
UMASS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/27	New Mexico State vs Nevada	+7.0	48.0	L 12 - 23	U	N
Thu 9/1	New Mexico State at Minnesota	+36.0	52.5	L 0 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/10	New Mexico State at UTEP	+17.0	46.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/17	New Mexico State at Wisconsin	+38.0	45.5	L 7 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/24	New Mexico State vs Hawai'i	-4.5	53.0	W 45 - 26	O	Y
Sat 10/1	New Mexico State vs Florida International	-15.0	54.0	L 7 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15	New Mexico State vs New Mexico	+7.0	38.5	W 21 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/22	New Mexico State vs San José State	+21.0	43.0
Sat 10/29	New Mexico State at Massachusetts	-1.0	39.0	W 23 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12	New Mexico State vs Lamar	-22.0	48.5	W 51 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/19	New Mexico State at Missouri	+29.0	46.5	L 14 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/26	New Mexico State at Liberty	+24.0	51.0	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Sat 12/3	New Mexico State vs Valparaiso	-31.5	55.0	W 65 - 3	O	Y
Mon 12/26	New Mexico State vs Bowling Green	+3.0	51.0	W 24 - 19	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Massachusetts's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Massachusetts at Tulane	+28.5	59.0	L 10 - 42	U	N
Sat 9/10	Massachusetts at Toledo	+28.0	49.0	L 10 - 55	O	N
Sat 9/17	Massachusetts vs Stony Brook	-1.0	44.5	W 20 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/24	Massachusetts at Temple	+10.0	44.0	L 0 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/1	Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan	+20.0	53.0	L 13 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Massachusetts vs Liberty	+22.5	45.5	L 24 - 42	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Massachusetts vs Buffalo	+17.0	47.5	L 7 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	Massachusetts vs New Mexico State	+1.0	39.0	L 13 - 23	U	N
Fri 11/4	Massachusetts at UConn	+15.0	39.5	L 10 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/12	Massachusetts at Arkansas State	+17.0	49.0	L 33 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/19	Massachusetts at Texas A&M	+32.0	46.0	L 3 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/26	Massachusetts vs Army	+20.0	45.5	L 7 - 44	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	.12	42%	21.6	45%	3.14	101	41%	270	3.11	.4	50%	27.6	51%	50%	3.94	60.2	1.3	2
UMASS	.09	38%	11.1	43%	3.03	147	32%	153	3.34	.42	49%	38.6	50%	48%	5.06	59.5	1.7	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UMASS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	12	21.6	20	41.9%	3.11	1.3	22	370	101	270	3.3	38%	62%	45%	41%	20%	.12
UMASS Defense	12	38.6	34.7	48.7%	5.06	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	50%	48%	13%	.42

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	12	27.6	37.5	49.9%	3.94	2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	51%	50%	17%	.4
UMASS Offense	12	11.1	12.8	37.5%	3.34	1.7	16	300	147	153	4.2	53%	46%	43%	32%	21%	.09

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	12	30:31	21.9	38%	45%	6.9	60.2	1.3	2	6	1.6	0	26
Massachusetts	12	29:45	16.3	33%	44%	6.3	59.5	1.7	0.8	3.8	0.9	0	26.9

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	12	38%	45%	30.8	100.6	3.3	15	.18	3.14	78%	12%	0.91
UMASS Defense	12	59%	50%	-	-	-	-	.31	3.21	77%	8%	1.2

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	12	51%	51%	-	-	-	-	.25	3.53	67%	12%	1.05
UMASS Offense	12	53%	43%	34.7	147	4.2	14	.18	3.03	65%	14%	1.07

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	12	62%	41%	24.7	43.2	269.7	6.3	10.9	15	10	.11	1.4	35%	28%	.2	8%	1.9
UMASS Defense	12	41%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	.58	1.8	29%	37%	.7	5%	2.5

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	12	48%	50%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.63	1.8	27%	40%	.75	5%	2.3
UMASS Offense	12	46%	32%	13.6	27.6	152.7	5.5	11.2	11	11	.04	1.6	34%	28%	.31	7%	2.2

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #140
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
New Mexico State's 2022 Expected Record: -
New Mexico State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4 #117
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.0 #128
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #61

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: Massachusetts: -12.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -15.4 Massachusetts: -30.3

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -12.65 NR
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: NR
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Massachusetts's 2022 Expected Record: -
Massachusetts's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -30.3 #133
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 7.5 #132
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #110

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2022 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico State 29
Massachusetts 22

Projected Total Points: 51

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 12.8
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

Massachusetts's 2022 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	08/26	New Mexico State	30	Massachusetts	41	New Mexico State -7	Massachusetts	45.5	Over
2022	10/29	Massachusetts	13	New Mexico State	23	New Mexico State -1	New Mexico State	39.0	Under
2021	11/27	New Mexico State	44	Massachusetts	27	New Mexico State -7	New Mexico State	58.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Massachusetts	1	1	2 Overs
New Mexico State	2	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 1

(#) NMSU at (#) UMASS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NMSU	UMASS
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#117	#133
Perf GradeGrade	#113	#135
OffenseOff	#96	#135
DefenseDef	#105	#116
Spec TeamsST	#132	#134
TalentTal	#140	#124
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

New Mexico State Injury Report

Massachusetts Injury Report

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UMASS Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#96	#116
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#128	#110
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UMASS Def
Run GameRun	#20	#104
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#120	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#109

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	UMASS Def
Pass GamePass	#73	#106
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#94	#83
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Massachusetts on Offense


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	NMSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#135	#105
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#132	#61
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Massachusetts Run Game


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	#129	#112
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#129	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#49

Massachusetts Pass Game


CategoryCat	UMASS Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	#135	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#47	#120
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'22 Profile: Remains Poor G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'22 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
New Mexico State 1.0 (39.0)
New Mexico State won at Massachusetts this year (23-13)

Previous Matchups
Massachusetts beat New Mexico State in 2023 (41-30)

NMSU's OC Tim Beck (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UMASS's OC Steve Casula (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD