Bowling Green at Toledo - 2022 Matchup Preview

Tuesday, November 15th 2022 (7:00 PM EST)
Toledo -14.5 (47.0)
Bowling Green 42 - Toledo: 35 (Mid-American)

Falcons (6 - 7) (4 - 8 - 1)
Coach Scot Loeffler (7 - 22)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (24 - 29 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TOL 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -9.5 (SP+ TOL -14)
Projected Score: BGSU: 16 - TOL: 33 (49)
TOL Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
BGSU Travel: 19 miles

Rockets (9 - 5) (5 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (45 - 27)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
BGSU Players
TOL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Bowling Green's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/3	Bowling Green at UCLA	+24.0	56.5	L 17 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/10	Bowling Green vs Eastern Kentucky	-7.5	57.0	L 57 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/17	Bowling Green vs Marshall	+17.0	50.0	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/24	Bowling Green at Mississippi State	+31.0	53.0	L 14 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Bowling Green at Akron	-9.0	49.5	W 31 - 28	O	N
Sat 10/8	Bowling Green vs Buffalo	+2.0	55.5	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 10/15	Bowling Green vs Miami (OH)	+7.0	45.0	W 17 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/22	Bowling Green at Central Michigan	+5.5	51.0	W 34 - 18	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/2	Bowling Green vs Western Michigan	-5.0	48.0	W 13 - 9	U	N
Wed 11/9	Bowling Green vs Kent State	+2.5	55.5	L 6 - 40	U	N
Tue 11/15	Bowling Green at Toledo	+14.5	47.0	W 42 - 35	O	Y
Tue 11/22	Bowling Green at Ohio	+5.5	52.5	L 14 - 38	U	N
Mon 12/26	Bowling Green vs New Mexico State	-3.0	51.0	L 19 - 24	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Toledo's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Toledo vs Long Island University	-47.5	57.0	W 37 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/10	Toledo vs Massachusetts	-28.0	49.0	W 55 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Toledo at Ohio State	+34.5	63.0	L 21 - 77	O	N
Sat 9/24	Toledo at San Diego State	-2.5	44.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/1	Toledo vs Central Michigan	-6.5	56.0	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Toledo at Northern Illinois	-6.5	59.0	W 52 - 32	O	Y
Sat 10/15	Toledo vs Kent State	-7.0	62.5	W 52 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/22	Toledo at Buffalo	-7.0	56.0	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/29	Toledo at Eastern Michigan	-4.0	54.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/8	Toledo vs Ball State	-11.0	50.0	W 28 - 21	U	N
Tue 11/15	Toledo vs Bowling Green	-14.5	47.0	L 35 - 42	O	N
Fri 11/25	Toledo at Western Michigan	-8.5	50.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 12/3	Toledo vs Ohio	-3.5	54.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Tue 12/20	Toledo vs Liberty	-4.0	51.5	W 21 - 19	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU	.08	36%	20.5	37%	2.53	102	36%	215	3.6	.17	43%	24.3	48%	35%	4.2	71.1	1.4	1.5
TOL	.29	40%	30.8	45%	3.5	196	36%	239	4.04	.09	36%	13.3	36%	37%	3.22	90.2	0.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BGSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
TOL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Offense	12	20.5	24	36.2%	3.6	1.4	16	317	102	215	3.3	41%	59%	37%	36%	22%	.08
TOL Defense	13	13.3	7.7	36.2%	3.22	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	36%	37%	20%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BGSU Defense	12	24.3	29	42.8%	4.2	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	48%	35%	17%	.17
TOL Offense	13	30.8	45.8	40.2%	4.04	0.5	21	435	196	239	5.4	49%	51%	45%	36%	17%	.29

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Bowling Green	12	29:39	15.6	34%	33%	8	71.1	1.4	1.5	6.8	2.3	1	30.4
Toledo	13	28:20	20.8	35%	43%	10	90.2	0.5	1.5	6.8	2.9	5	29.4

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense	12	41%	37%	30.8	102.3	3.3	15	.06	2.53	63%	14%	1.01
TOL Defense	13	52%	36%	-	-	-	-	.07	3.07	63%	12%	1.07

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense	12	60%	48%	-	-	-	-	.21	3.47	88%	12%	0.88
TOL Offense	13	49%	45%	36.3	196.4	5.4	29	.35	3.5	77%	11%	1.33

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense	12	59%	36%	19.8	33.9	214.8	6.3	10.8	12	9	.12	1.4	38%	26%	.23	8%	2.1
TOL Defense	13	48%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.18	1.6	35%	27%	.24	8%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense	12	39%	35%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.16	1.6	29%	21%	.13	5%	2
TOL Offense	13	51%	36%	17.4	30	239.1	8	13.8	22	3	.24	1.8	36%	25%	.27	6%	2.3

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: NR
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: NR
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #108
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Bowling Green's 2022 Expected Record: -
Bowling Green's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.1 #123
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.8 #88
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.6 #127

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: Toledo: 0.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -18.1 Toledo: -3.7

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 0.65 NR
Toledo's Offense Rating: NR
Toledo's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Toledo's 2022 Expected Record: -
Toledo's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.7 #82
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #68
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #69

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Bowling Green's 2022 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Toledo 33
Bowling Green 16

Projected Total Points: 49

Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Bowling Green	28	Toledo	23	Toledo -10.5	Bowling Green	45.5	Over
2024	10/26	Toledo	26	Bowling Green	41	Toledo -1.5	Bowling Green	47.5	Over
2023	11/14	Bowling Green	31	Toledo	32	Toledo -9.5	Bowling Green	48.5	Over
2022	11/15	Toledo	35	Bowling Green	42	Toledo -14.5	Bowling Green	47.0	Over
2021	11/10	Bowling Green	17	Toledo	49	Toledo -10.5	Toledo	50.0	Over
2020	11/04	Toledo	38	Bowling Green	3	Toledo -24	Toledo	63.0	Under
2019	10/12	Bowling Green	20	Toledo	7	Toledo -26.5	Bowling Green	65.0	Under
2018	10/06	Toledo	52	Bowling Green	36	Toledo -23	Bowling Green	71.0	Over
2017	11/15	Bowling Green	37	Toledo	66	Toledo -17.5	Toledo	66.0	Over
2016	10/15	Toledo	42	Bowling Green	35	Toledo -24	Bowling Green	71.0	Over
2015	11/17	Bowling Green	28	Toledo	44	Bowling Green -9	Toledo	72.5	Under
2014	11/19	Toledo	27	Bowling Green	20	Toledo -6.5	Toledo	0
2013	10/26	Bowling Green	25	Toledo	28	Bowling Green -3	Toledo	0
2012	09/15	Toledo	27	Bowling Green	15
2011	10/15	Bowling Green	21	Toledo	28
2010	11/17	Toledo	33	Bowling Green	14
2009	11/27	Bowling Green	38	Toledo	24
2008	11/28	Toledo	10	Bowling Green	38
2007	11/23	Bowling Green	37	Toledo	10
2006	11/21	Toledo	31	Bowling Green	21
2005	11/22	Bowling Green	41	Toledo	44
2004	11/23	Toledo	49	Bowling Green	41
2003	11/29	Bowling Green	31	Toledo	23
2001	11/23	Bowling Green	56	Toledo	21
2000	11/21	Toledo	51	Bowling Green	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Toledo	16	6	8 Overs
Bowling Green	9	7	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 10	5 - 8	2 - 6	3 - 2
Road Teams	10 - 15	8 - 5	2 - 3	6 - 2

(#) BGSU at (#) TOL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BGSU	TOL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#123	#82
Perf GradeGrade	#91	#47
OffenseOff	#101	#81
DefenseDef	#63	#5
Spec TeamsST	#97	#135
TalentTal	#108	#80
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Bowling Green Injury Report

Toledo Injury Report

Bowling Green on Offense


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	TOL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#101	#5
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#88	#69
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Bowling Green Run Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	TOL Def
Run GameRun	#97	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#102	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#26

Bowling Green Pass Game


CategoryCat	BGSU Off	TOL Def
Pass GamePass	#79	#6
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#99	#21
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Toledo on Offense


CategoryCat	TOL Off	BGSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#81	#63
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#68	#127
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Toledo Run Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	#100	#75
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#81	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#104

Toledo Pass Game


CategoryCat	TOL Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	#64	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#120	#13
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'22 Profile: Down to Average G5

BGSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'22 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
Toledo -14.5 (47.0)
Bowling Green won at Toledo this year (42-35)

Previous Matchups
Bowling Green beat Toledo last year (28-23)
Bowling Green beat Toledo in 2024 (41-26)
Toledo beat Bowling Green in 2023 (32-31)

BGSU's OC Terry Malone (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Eric Lewis (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

TOL's OC Mike Hallett (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Vince Kehres (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD