New Mexico State at Liberty - 2022 Matchup Preview
New Mexico State logo   New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty Flames  Liberty logo
Saturday, November 26th 2022 (12:00 PM EST)
Liberty -24.0 (51.0)
New Mexico State 49 - Liberty: 14  (FBS Independents)

 
Aggies (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jerry Kill (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NMSU 2nd straight Road Game
LIB 2nd straight Home Game
LIB is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -9.5  (SP+ LIB -14)
Projected Score: NMSU: 24 - LIB: 31 (55)
LIB Win prob: 96% | Cover: 57%
NMSU Travel: 1597 miles, 2 hrs behind
Flames (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (26 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (32 - 27 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
New Mexico State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27 New Mexico State vs Nevada+7.048.0L 12 - 23UN
Thu 9/1 New Mexico State at Minnesota+36.052.5L 0 - 38UN
Sat 9/10 New Mexico State at UTEP+17.046.5L 13 - 20UY
Sat 9/17 New Mexico State at Wisconsin+38.045.5L 7 - 66ON
Sat 9/24 New Mexico State vs Hawai'i-4.553.0W 45 - 26OY
Sat 10/1 New Mexico State vs Florida International-15.054.0L 7 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/15 New Mexico State vs New Mexico+7.038.5W 21 - 9UY
Sat 10/22 New Mexico State vs San José State+21.043.0
Sat 10/29 New Mexico State at Massachusetts-1.039.0W 23 - 13UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/12 New Mexico State vs Lamar-22.048.5W 51 - 14OY
Sat 11/19 New Mexico State at Missouri+29.046.5L 14 - 45ON
Sat 11/26 New Mexico State at Liberty+24.051.0W 49 - 14OY
Sat 12/3 New Mexico State vs Valparaiso-31.555.0W 65 - 3OY
Mon 12/26 New Mexico State vs Bowling Green+3.051.0W 24 - 19UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Liberty's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 Liberty at Southern Miss-3.550.0W 29 - 27ON
Sat 9/10 Liberty vs UAB+6.050.0W 21 - 14UY
Sat 9/17 Liberty at Wake Forest+17.564.0L 36 - 37OY
Sat 9/24 Liberty vs Akron-26.552.5W 21 - 12UN
Sat 10/1 Liberty at Old Dominion-3.548.0W 38 - 24OY
Sat 10/8 Liberty at Massachusetts-22.545.5W 42 - 24ON
Sat 10/15 Liberty vs Gardner-Webb-24.555.0W 21 - 20UN
Sat 10/22 Liberty vs BYU+7.058.0W 41 - 14UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/5 Liberty at Arkansas+14.561.5W 21 - 19UY
Sat 11/12 Liberty at UConn-13.545.0L 33 - 36ON
Sat 11/19 Liberty vs Virginia Tech-10.546.0L 22 - 23UN
Sat 11/26 Liberty vs New Mexico State-24.051.0L 14 - 49ON
Tue 12/20 Liberty vs Toledo+4.051.5L 19 - 21UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU.1242%21.645%3.1410141%2703.11.450%27.651%50%3.9460.21.32
LIB.2945%25.652%3.7218139%2554.57.1341%26.544%38%3.6266.51.70.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
LIB0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense1221.62041.9%3.111.3223701012703.338%62%45%41%20%.12
LIB Defense1326.527.341.1%3.620.8 - - - - - 56%43%44%38%18%.13
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense1227.637.549.9%3.942 - - - - - 51%48%51%50%17%.4
LIB Offense1325.631.545.4%4.571.7234361812554.648%51%52%39%17%.29

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State1230:3121.938%45%6.960.21.3261.6026
Liberty1330:1922.643%43%7.166.51.70.87.52.8228.5
Run Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense1238%45%30.8100.63.315.183.1478%12%0.91
LIB Defense1356%44% - - - - .133.1775%12%0.87
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense1251%51% - - - - .253.5367%12%1.05
LIB Offense1348%52%39.1180.84.626.353.7279%11%1.11

Pass Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense1262%41%24.743.2269.76.310.91510.111.435%28%.28%1.9
LIB Defense1343%38% - - - - - - 9.161.531%29%.266%1.9
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense1248%50% - - - - - - 10.631.827%40%.755%2.3
LIB Offense1351%39%17.429.32558.714.73315.251.730%32%.316%2.1

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #140
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
New Mexico State's 2022 Expected Record: -
New Mexico State's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4  #117
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.0  #128
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.0  #61

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State:    Liberty: 1.75

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -15.4   Liberty: -1.5




Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 1.75 NR
Liberty's Offense Rating: NR
Liberty's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #146
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Liberty's 2022 Expected Record: -
Liberty's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.5  #73
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.1  #83
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #57

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2022 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Liberty 31
New Mexico State 24

Projected Total Points: 55
Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.5
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Liberty's 2022 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/14Liberty30New Mexico State27Liberty -10.5New Mexico State48.5Over
202409/07New Mexico State24Liberty30Liberty -22.5New Mexico State54.5Under
202309/09Liberty33New Mexico State17Liberty -9Liberty54.5Under
202312/01Liberty49New Mexico State35Liberty -10.5Liberty54.0Over
202211/26Liberty14New Mexico State49Liberty -24.0New Mexico State51.0Over
201910/05New Mexico State13Liberty20Liberty -4.5Liberty62.5Under
201911/30Liberty49New Mexico State28Liberty -14.5Liberty68.0Over
201810/06New Mexico State49Liberty41Liberty -3New Mexico State64.0Over
201811/24Liberty28New Mexico State21Liberty -7Push72.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Liberty745 Overs
New Mexico State244 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 35 - 33 - 22 - 1
Road Teams3 - 63 - 51 - 22 - 3

(#) NMSU at (#) LIB
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNMSULIB
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #117 #73
Perf GradeGrade #113 #81
OffenseOff #96 #95
DefenseDef #105 #72
Spec TeamsST #132 #4
TalentTal #140 #146
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
New Mexico State on Offense
CategoryCat
NMSU OffLIB Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #96 #72
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #128 #57
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
New Mexico State Run Game
CategoryCat
NMSU OffLIB Def
Run GameRun #20 #66
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #120 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #117
New Mexico State Pass Game
CategoryCat
NMSU OffLIB Def
Pass GamePass #73 #71
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #94 #86
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Liberty on Offense
CategoryCatLIB OffNMSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #95 #105
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #83 #61
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Liberty Run Game
CategoryCat
LIB OffNMSU Def
Run GameRun #99 #112
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #78 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #49
Liberty Pass Game
CategoryCatLIB OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePass #125 #65
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #21 #120
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
LIB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'22 Profile: Remains Top G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'22 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 13
Liberty -24.0 (51.0)
New Mexico State won at Liberty this year (49-14)

Previous Matchups
Liberty beat New Mexico State last year (30-27)
Liberty beat New Mexico State in 2024 (30-24)
Liberty beat New Mexico State in 2023 (49-35)

  
NMSU's OC Tim Beck (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Nate Dreiling (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

LIB's OC Kent Austin (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Josh Aldridge (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD